Magazyn Kieszeń (528) 11.09.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 November Coupon is down just -2 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

Consumer Sentiment: We will get the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index hit 73 versus estimates of 71. The five year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.1%

The election still ringing in the ears of the bond market and not likely to be a very happy tune. It is the bond market that funds the increasing US deficit, to do so with the outlook of more spending and lower taxes will cost. Today more correctional activity, at one point the 10 year note dropped to 4.26% -7 bps but this afternoon while still lower for the day the note is ending at 4.32% down 2 bps on the day. MBS prices this morning increased 10 bps but with the 10 moving off the lows MBS prices under pressure this afternoon. Down 5 bps at 3 pm (see below for 4 pm level). There are two distinctive markets, the equity market and the bond market that funds the debt, they don’t work in tandem.

Trump made a lot of promises during the campaign, now it is up to the bond market to determine how many of them will occur. Cutting taxes was a Trump pillar. Lowering inflation, tariffs to equal the global playing field. Very aggressive plans and it won’t go down easily until next Spring when the details and decisions are known. In the meantime, interest rates will find resistance to decline much. We have noted numerous times here 30 year mortgage rates at their best over the next few months are not likely to fall much from present levels. And let us not forget the increasing tensions in the mid-east and what Trump will do to slowdown Iran. Waiting for another low-rate environment is a wait in frustration.

Next Week: Nothing on the schedule on Monday. Tuesday October NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday Oct CPI, the Oct treasury budget statement, MBA apps. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Oct PPI. Friday Oct retail sales, Oct import and export prices, Oct industrial production and capacity utilization.

This Week: The long end of the curve saw some improvement but at the key short end (2 year note) interest rates increased. The 10 year this week -8 bp, the 2 year note +4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increased 51 bps. The DJIA increased 1,937, NASDQ+1.047, S&P +267. The dollar gained this week, the index +0.68, Gold fell $49.00, crude oil +$1.03. Bitcoin rode the Trump win, increasing 7,461

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.30% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.19% +1 bp

2 year note: 4.26% +7 bp

30 year bond: 4.46% -7 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.99 unch (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.22 -4 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.03 +3 bp (-12 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 152.59 -0.34 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0717 -$0.0086

Dollar Index: 104.98 +0.47

Gold: $2,695.60 -$10.20

Bitcoin: 76,613 -5

Crude Oil: $70.49 -$1.87

DJIA: 43,988.99 +259.65

NASDAQ: 19,286.78 +17.32

S&P 500: 5995.54 +22.44

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,298.30	-12.13	-0.52%	+0.59%	+7.39%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	82,250.19	-260.67	-0.32%	+0.59%	+14.97%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,911.84	-10.00	-0.34%	+0.68%	+10.35%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value			Change		Net Change		Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0718			-0.0087		-0.81%		4:59 PM
USD-JPY	152.6400			-0.3000		-0.20%		4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2921			-0.0066		-0.51%		4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6583			-0.0096		-1.44%		4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3912			0.0051		+0.37%		4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8756			0.0032		+0.37%		4:59 PM
USD-MXN		20.1774	0.3758		+1.90%		4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	23.5594	0.1866	+0.80%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.1067	0.2248	+0.81%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0348	0.0431	+1.08%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	379.7600	5.2300	+1.40%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	97.6000	0.1000	+0.10%	4:55 PM

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% -0.06%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.37% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.30% -0.18 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.15% -0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.92% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.32% -0.18 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/8 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.37% -0.08%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.00% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/7   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/30

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.54 -0.04   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.54 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 100.97 -0.06 GNMA 5.5 100.11 +0.14 GNMA 6.0 101.09 0.00 Pricing as of: 11/8 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2994 -0.0385   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.250 +0.046 5 YR Treasury 4.189 +0.011 7 YR Treasury 4.244 -0.012 10 YR Treasury 4.299 -0.039 30 YR Treasury 4.463 -0.072 Pricing as of: 11/8 5:31PM EST

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.99%	4.95%	7.53%	28.83%	42.54%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.750	-3.762	-3.672	-3.542	7.750	-3.836	-3.746	-3.616
7.625	-3.531	-3.441	-3.311	7.625	-3.560	-3.470	-3.340
7.500	-3.302	-3.212	-3.082	7.500	-3.287	-3.197	-3.067
7.375	-2.922	-2.832	-2.702	7.375	-2.907	-2.817	-2.687
7.250	-2.488	-2.398	-2.268	7.250	-2.478	-2.388	-2.258
7.125	-2.576	-2.486	-2.356	7.125	-2.525	-2.435	-2.305
6.999	-2.307	-2.217	-2.087	6.999	-1.838	-1.748	-1.618
6.875	-1.864	-1.774	-1.644	6.875	-1.806	-1.716	-1.586
6.750	-1.341	-1.251	-1.121	6.750	-1.351	-1.261	-1.131
6.625	-1.557	-1.467	-1.337	6.625	-1.850	-1.760	-1.630
6.500	-1.243	-1.153	-1.023	6.500	-1.518	-1.428	-1.298
6.375	-0.722	-0.632	-0.502	6.375	-1.053	-0.963	-0.833
6.250	-0.088	0.002	0.132	6.250	-0.580	-0.490	-0.360
6.125	-0.208	-0.118	0.012	6.125	-0.694	-0.604	-0.474
5.999	0.239	0.329	0.459	5.999	-0.243	-0.153	-0.023
5.875	0.915	1.005	1.135	5.875	0.230	0.320	0.450
5.750	1.662	1.752	1.882	5.750	0.735	0.825	0.955
5.625	1.656	1.746	1.876	5.625	1.342	1.432	1.562
5.500	2.220	2.310	2.440	5.500	1.796	1.886	2.016

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.481	-3.391	-3.261	6.625	-2.907	-2.817	-2.687
6.875	-3.261	-3.171	-3.041	6.500	-2.709	-2.619	-2.489
6.750	-2.830	-2.740	-2.610	6.375	-2.467	-2.377	-2.247
6.625	-2.862	-2.772	-2.642	6.250	-2.021	-1.931	-1.801
6.500	-2.647	-2.557	-2.427	6.125	-1.976	-1.886	-1.756
6.375	-2.392	-2.302	-2.172	6.000	-1.740	-1.650	-1.520
6.250	-1.946	-1.856	-1.726	5.875	-1.486	-1.396	-1.266
6.125	-1.870	-1.780	-1.650	5.750	-1.005	-0.915	-0.785
6.000	-1.618	-1.528	-1.398	5.625	-0.872	-0.782	-0.652
5.875	-1.348	-1.258	-1.128	5.500	-0.610	-0.520	-0.390
5.750	-0.867	-0.777	-0.647	5.375	-0.302	-0.212	-0.082
5.625	-0.576	-0.486	-0.356	5.250	0.201	0.291	0.421
5.500	-0.298	-0.208	-0.078	5.125	0.346	0.436	0.566
5.375	0.023	0.113	0.243	5.000	0.695	0.785	0.915
5.250	0.526	0.616	0.746	4.875	1.045	1.135	1.265
5.125	0.798	0.888	1.018	4.750	1.576	1.666	1.796
5.000	1.161	1.251	1.381	4.625	1.333	1.423	1.553
4.875	1.526	1.616	1.746	4.500	1.750	1.840	1.970
4.750	2.057	2.147	2.277	4.375	2.147	2.237	2.367