Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 November Coupon is up +18 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Rosie the Riveter: September Factory Orders slumped by -0.5% versus estimates of 0.4%, plus August was revised lower from -0.2% all the way down to -0.8%.
Treasury Dump: We kicked off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today’s shorter term 3 year note. $72B went off at a high yield of 4.152% (versus 3.878% in October and the highest since July) and a bid-cover-ratio of 2.60.
On Deck For Tomorrow: Trade Balance, ISM Services PMI, 10YR Treasury Note Auction, U.S. Election.
Rate markets had a great open this morning, this afternoon some give back as the election still haunts, and Iran threats while not getting the headlines is worsening. It isn’t likely interest rates are going to improve much until the dust settles over who will be the next president without turmoil or a plethora of lawsuits certain to follow. The FOMC meeting on Thursday another hurdle, expecting a 25 bp cut in the FF rate.
Treasury sold $58B of 3 year notes this afternoon, it was sloppy and with no big demand. In WI trade prior to the auction, it traded at 4.143%, at the auction 4.152%, US buyers weren’t impressed taking just 9.6% of the amount compared to the average of 17.7%.
Tomorrow starts the process, as long as the concern of possible chaos is there interest rates don’t have much opportunity to decline. This election will go down as the most bitter campaigns we have ever seen beating the 2020 melee.
Tomorrow Treasury will issue a new $42B 10 year note, it is a better measure of demand and outlook than today’s 3 year note that is kind of in no-man’s land. The September ISM services index is thought to have slipped somewhat from August to 53.5 from 54.9. Not likely there will be any noticeable reaction, but it is a key data point that will be factored in by economists.
RIP Quincy Jones, one of the masterminds of modern jazz and a huge fav of mine. Died yesterday at 91.
CENY@ 4:00 PM
10 yr note: 4.30% -8 bp
5 yr note: 4.16% -6 bp
2 year note: 4.18% -4 bp
30 yr bond: 4.48% -10 bp
30 yr FNMA 6.0: 100.64 +16 bp (-13 bp frm 9:30 am)
30 yr FNMA 6.5: 102.08 +9 bp -17 bp frm 9:30 am)
30 yr GNMA 6.0: 100.75 +9 bp (-13 bp frm 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 152.17 -0.82 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0878 +$0.0044
Dollar Index: 103.91 -0.38
Gold: $2,745.50 -$2.70
Bitcoin: 67,427 -1508
Crude Oil: $71.54 +$2.05
DJIA: 41,794.60 -257.59
NASDAQ: 18,179.98 -59.93
S&P 500: 5712.69 -16.1
SOFR Data 11/04: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.84375, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.11527, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.27387, INDEX: 1.16634741
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,252.86 | +47.39 | +2.15% | -2.72% | +4.80% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
80,861.75 | +1,311.43 | +1.65% | -2.45% | +12.96% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,857.30 | +54.22 | +1.93% | -2.49% | +8.32% | 11:15 A |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) | ||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.0876 | 0.0042 | +0.39% | 4:19 PM | ||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
152.1900 | -0.8200 | -0.54% | 4:18 PM | ||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.2954 | 0.0030 | +0.23% | 4:18 PM | ||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6586 | 0.0027 | +0.41% | 4:19 PM | ||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3901 | -0.0048 | -0.34% | 4:18 PM | ||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8643 | -0.0057 | -0.66% | 4:18 P | ||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
23.2910 | -0.0950 | -0.41% | 4:24 PM | ||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
27.7028 | -0.1037 | -0.37% | 4:24 PM | ||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
4.0064 | -0.0204 | -0.51% | 4:24 PM | ||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
375.4000 | -1.3400 | -0.36% | 4:24 PM | ||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
98.8718 | 0.8718 | +0.89% | 12:31 P | ||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
20.1092 | -0.1749 | -0.86% | 4:24 PM | ||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||||||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||||||
| 8.000 | -4.175 | -4.085 | -3.955 | 7.875 | -3.720 | -3.630 | -3.500 | ||||||||
| 7.875 | -3.433 | -3.343 | -3.213 | 7.750 | -3.360 | -3.270 | -3.140 | ||||||||
| 7.750 | -3.434 | -3.344 | -3.214 | 7.625 | -2.981 | -2.891 | -2.761 | ||||||||
| 7.625 | -3.198 | -3.108 | -2.978 | 7.500 | -2.700 | -2.610 | -2.480 | ||||||||
| 7.500 | -2.962 | -2.872 | -2.742 | 7.375 | -2.374 | -2.284 | -2.154 | ||||||||
| 7.375 | -2.578 | -2.488 | -2.358 | 7.250 | -2.013 | -1.923 | -1.793 | ||||||||
| 7.250 | -2.143 | -2.053 | -1.923 | 7.125 | -1.776 | -1.686 | -1.556 | ||||||||
| 7.125 | -2.032 | -1.942 | -1.812 | 6.999 | -1.100 | -1.010 | -0.880 | ||||||||
| 6.999 | -1.750 | -1.660 | -1.530 | 6.875 | -1.120 | -1.030 | -0.900 | ||||||||
| 6.875 | -1.306 | -1.216 | -1.086 | 6.750 | -0.726 | -0.636 | -0.506 | ||||||||
| 6.750 | -0.803 | -0.713 | -0.583 | 6.625 | -0.955 | -0.865 | -0.735 | ||||||||
| 6.625 | -0.792 | -0.702 | -0.572 | 6.500 | -0.633 | -0.543 | -0.413 | ||||||||
| 6.500 | -0.454 | -0.364 | -0.234 | 6.375 | -0.209 | -0.119 | 0.011 | ||||||||
| 6.375 | 0.066 | 0.156 | 0.286 | 6.250 | 0.220 | 0.310 | 0.440 | ||||||||
| 6.250 | 0.645 | 0.735 | 0.865 | 6.125 | 0.306 | 0.396 | 0.526 | ||||||||
| 6.125 | 0.696 | 0.786 | 0.916 | 5.999 | 0.696 | 0.786 | 0.916 | ||||||||
| 5.999 | 1.173 | 1.263 | 1.393 | 5.875 | 1.166 | 1.256 | 1.386 | ||||||||
| 5.875 | 1.832 | 1.922 | 2.052 | 5.750 | 1.644 | 1.734 | 1.864 | ||||||||
| 5.750 | 2.562 | 2.652 | 2.782 | 5.625 | 2.353 | 2.443 | 2.573 | ||||||||
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||||||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||||||
| 7.125 | -3.107 | -3.017 | -2.887 | 7.000 | -2.899 | -2.809 | -2.679 | ||||||||
| 7.000 | -2.931 | -2.841 | -2.711 | 6.875 | -2.707 | -2.617 | -2.487 | ||||||||
| 6.875 | -2.726 | -2.636 | -2.506 | 6.750 | -2.339 | -2.249 | -2.119 | ||||||||
| 6.750 | -2.358 | -2.268 | -2.138 | 6.625 | -2.394 | -2.304 | -2.174 | ||||||||
| 6.625 | -2.349 | -2.259 | -2.129 | 6.500 | -2.205 | -2.115 | -1.985 | ||||||||
| 6.500 | -2.143 | -2.053 | -1.923 | 6.375 | -1.963 | -1.873 | -1.743 | ||||||||
| 6.375 | -1.888 | -1.798 | -1.668 | 6.250 | -1.558 | -1.468 | -1.338 | ||||||||
| 6.250 | -1.483 | -1.393 | -1.263 | 6.125 | -1.447 | -1.357 | -1.227 | ||||||||
| 6.125 | -1.342 | -1.252 | -1.122 | 6.000 | -1.217 | -1.127 | -0.997 | ||||||||
| 6.000 | -1.095 | -1.005 | -0.875 | 5.875 | -0.966 | -0.876 | -0.746 | ||||||||
| 5.875 | -0.829 | -0.739 | -0.609 | 5.750 | -0.534 | -0.444 | -0.314 | ||||||||
| 5.750 | -0.397 | -0.307 | -0.177 | 5.625 | -0.300 | -0.210 | -0.080 | ||||||||
| 5.625 | -0.005 | 0.085 | 0.215 | 5.500 | -0.040 | 0.050 | 0.180 | ||||||||
| 5.500 | 0.272 | 0.362 | 0.492 | 5.375 | 0.264 | 0.354 | 0.484 | ||||||||
| 5.375 | 0.589 | 0.679 | 0.809 | 5.250 | 0.711 | 0.801 | 0.931 | ||||||||
| 5.250 | 1.036 | 1.126 | 1.256 | 5.125 | 0.895 | 0.985 | 1.115 | ||||||||
| 5.125 | 1.347 | 1.437 | 1.567 | 5.000 | 1.239 | 1.329 | 1.459 | ||||||||
| 5.000 | 1.705 | 1.795 | 1.925 | 4.875 | 1.586 | 1.676 | 1.806 | ||||||||
| 4.875 | 2.067 | 2.157 | 2.287 | 4.750 | 2.069 | 2.159 | 2.289 | ||||||||
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