Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 November Coupon is currently down -6 BPS.
Rosie the Riveter: September headline Durable Goods Orders were -0.8% versus estimates of -1.0%. Ex Transportation it was 0.4% versus estimates of -0.1%. Non Defense Capital Goods ex Aircraft were strong at 0.5% versus estimates of 0.1%.
Consumer Sentiment: The October UofM Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised upward from its preliminary reading of 68.9 to 70.5.
A feeble attempt to improve today met with no takers, the 10 this morning down 3 bp to 4.18%, this afternoon rates edged higher, the 10 ending the session at 4.24% the high in this move. MBS prices this morning +6 bps at 9:30 am, at 3 pm -15 bps with some lenders re-pricing. This morning the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and its other components were stronger than forecasts, sentiment was revised higher to 70.5 in October 2024 from a preliminary of 68.9. Overall, not much economic data this week of interest to interest rate markets. Everyday as the election rapidly approaches, its less likely interest rates will improve much. BofAs MOVE index that measures volatility in interest rates hit a two-week high this week.
Who will win? What will the Fed do on Nov 7th, and will voters take the results in stride or set off more extreme violence. Will Israel retaliate against Iran once it knows who the US president is?
Next week’s calendar unlike this week is loaded with key data. Monday 2 year and 5 year auctions, Case/Shiller home price index, Oct consumer confidence index, Sept JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, 7 year note auction, Oct ADP private jobs, Q3 advance GDP, Sept pending home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Sept personal income and spending, Sept PCE inflation data, Oct Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, Q3 employment cost index. Friday October employment data. In the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain will release inflation and GDP growth data, while Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment, unemployment rate, and retail sales will also be closely watched.
This Week: The 10-note yield increased 89 bp, the 2 year -69 bps; FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week -89 bp, the 6.0 coupon lost 69 bps. Bitcoin lost 1,715, the dollar index increased by 0.84, the dollar has reversed its long trend of declining. Crude oil increased $2.28; gold increased $20.00.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.24% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.07% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.11% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.51% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.25 -20 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.82 -15 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.80 +1 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 152.31 +0.47 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0795 -$0.0032
Dollar Index: 104.34 +0.28
Gold: $2,765.40 +$7.50
Bitcoin: 66,927 -1285
Crude Oil: $71.69 +$150
DJIA: 42,114.40 -259.96
NASDAQ: 18,518.61 +103.12
S&P 500: 5808.12 -1.74
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,245.25 | -0.30 | -0.01% | -4.31% | +7.11% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
80,755.56 | -99.36 | -0.12% | -3.61% | +15.00% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,845.87 | -2.88 | -0.10% | -4.12% | +10.25% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | |||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.0796 | -0.0032 | -0.30% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-JPY
|
152.3100 | 0.4800 | +0.32% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.2962 | -0.0013 | -0.10% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6608 | -0.0032 | -0.48% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3892 | 0.0037 | +0.27% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8668 | 0.0011 | +0.13% | 4:59 P | |||||
| USD-MXN
|
19.9868 | 0.1776 | +0.90% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CZK
|
23.4241 | 0.1420 | +0.61% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.9056 | 0.0822 | +0.30% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.0239 | 0.0097 | +0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
374.5400 | 2.4500 | +0.66% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
97.2501 | 1.0626 | +1.10% | 3:20 PM |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.875 | -3.511 | -3.421 | -3.291 | 7.750 | -3.490 | -3.400 | -3.270 |
| 7.750 | -3.529 | -3.439 | -3.309 | 7.625 | -3.123 | -3.033 | -2.903 |
| 7.625 | -3.285 | -3.195 | -3.065 | 7.500 | -2.866 | -2.776 | -2.646 |
| 7.500 | -3.056 | -2.966 | -2.836 | 7.375 | -2.542 | -2.452 | -2.322 |
| 7.375 | -2.691 | -2.601 | -2.471 | 7.250 | -2.172 | -2.082 | -1.952 |
| 7.250 | -2.267 | -2.177 | -2.047 | 7.125 | -1.978 | -1.888 | -1.758 |
| 7.125 | -2.167 | -2.077 | -1.947 | 6.999 | -1.331 | -1.241 | -1.111 |
| 6.999 | -1.926 | -1.836 | -1.706 | 6.875 | -1.362 | -1.272 | -1.142 |
| 6.875 | -1.500 | -1.410 | -1.280 | 6.750 | -0.969 | -0.879 | -0.749 |
| 6.750 | -1.004 | -0.914 | -0.784 | 6.625 | -1.171 | -1.081 | -0.951 |
| 6.625 | -0.950 | -0.860 | -0.730 | 6.500 | -0.847 | -0.757 | -0.627 |
| 6.500 | -0.614 | -0.524 | -0.394 | 6.375 | -0.426 | -0.336 | -0.206 |
| 6.375 | -0.112 | -0.022 | 0.108 | 6.250 | 0.002 | 0.092 | 0.222 |
| 6.250 | 0.455 | 0.545 | 0.675 | 6.125 | -0.049 | 0.041 | 0.171 |
| 6.125 | 0.381 | 0.471 | 0.601 | 5.999 | 0.330 | 0.420 | 0.550 |
| 5.999 | 0.842 | 0.932 | 1.062 | 5.875 | 0.799 | 0.889 | 1.019 |
| 5.875 | 1.498 | 1.588 | 1.718 | 5.750 | 1.287 | 1.377 | 1.507 |
| 5.750 | 2.217 | 2.307 | 2.437 | 5.625 | 1.970 | 2.060 | 2.190 |
| 5.625 | 2.355 | 2.445 | 2.575 | 5.500 | 2.370 | 2.460 | 2.590 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -2.095 | -2.005 | -1.875 | 6.500 | -2.157 | -2.067 | -1.937 |
| 6.375 | -1.842 | -1.752 | -1.622 | 6.375 | -1.917 | -1.827 | -1.697 |
| 6.250 | -1.439 | -1.349 | -1.219 | 6.250 | -1.514 | -1.424 | -1.294 |
| 6.125 | -1.373 | -1.283 | -1.153 | 6.125 | -1.479 | -1.389 | -1.259 |
| 6.000 | -1.125 | -1.035 | -0.905 | 6.000 | -1.247 | -1.157 | -1.027 |
| 5.875 | -0.860 | -0.770 | -0.640 | 5.875 | -0.997 | -0.907 | -0.777 |
| 5.750 | -0.429 | -0.339 | -0.209 | 5.750 | -0.567 | -0.477 | -0.347 |
| 5.625 | -0.238 | -0.148 | -0.018 | 5.625 | -0.534 | -0.444 | -0.314 |
| 5.500 | 0.039 | 0.129 | 0.259 | 5.500 | -0.273 | -0.183 | -0.053 |
| 5.375 | 0.351 | 0.441 | 0.571 | 5.375 | 0.026 | 0.116 | 0.246 |
| 5.250 | 0.797 | 0.887 | 1.017 | 5.250 | 0.472 | 0.562 | 0.692 |
| 5.125 | 0.974 | 1.064 | 1.194 | 5.125 | 0.522 | 0.612 | 0.742 |
| 5.000 | 1.334 | 1.424 | 1.554 | 5.000 | 0.868 | 0.958 | 1.088 |
| 4.875 | 1.697 | 1.787 | 1.917 | 4.875 | 1.215 | 1.305 | 1.435 |
| 4.750 | 2.178 | 2.268 | 2.398 | 4.750 | 1.697 | 1.787 | 1.917 |
| 4.625 | 2.334 | 2.424 | 2.554 | 4.625 | 1.699 | 1.789 | 1.919 |
| 4.500 | 2.774 | 2.864 | 2.994 | 4.500 | 2.123 | 2.213 | 2.343 |
| 4.375 | 3.192 | 3.282 | 3.412 | 4.375 | 2.523 | 2.613 | 2.743 |
| 4.250 | 3.693 | 3.783 | 3.913 | 4.250 | 3.024 | 3.114 | 3.244 |
New IRS tax brackets 2025
Here are the inflation-adjusted tax brackets for 2025. (Note: These brackets apply to federal income tax returns typically filed in early 2026.)
It’s also essential to remember that, for now, the associated tax rates remain the same (currently 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%).
For federal tax brackets for the 2024 tax filing season, see Federal Tax Brackets and Income Tax Rates.
Also, the IRS has announced the 2025 standard deduction. For more information see The New Standard Deduction is Here.
PLAY SOUND
| New 2025 Tax Brackets: Single Filers and Married Couples Filing Jointly | ||||
| Tax Rate | Taxable Income (Single) | Taxable Income (Married Filing Jointly) | ||
| 10% | Not over $11,925 | Not over $23,850 | ||
| 12% | Over $11,925 but not over $48,475 | Over $23,850 but not over $96,,950 | ||
| 22% | Over $103,350 but not over $197,300 | Over $96,950 but not over $206,700 | ||
| 24% | Over $197,300 but not over $250,525 | Over $206,700 but not over $394,600 | ||
| 32% | Over $250,525 but not over $626,350 | Over $394,600 but not over $501,050 | ||
| 35% | Over $250,525 but not over $626,350 | Over $501,050 but not over $751,600 | ||
| 37% | Over $626,350 | Over $751,600 | ||
| New 2025 Tax Brackets: Married Couples Filing Separately and Head of Household Filers | ||||
| Tax Rate | Taxable Income (Married Filing Separately) | Taxable Income (Head of Household)) | ||
| 10% | Not over $11,925 | Not over $17,000 | ||
| 12% | Over $11,925 but not over $48,475 | Over $17,000 but not over $64,850 | ||
| 22% | Over $48,475 but not over $103,350 | Over $64,850 but not over $103,350 | ||
| 24% | Over $103,350 but not over $197,300 | Over $103,350 but not over $197,300 | ||
| 32% | Over $197,300 but not over $250,525 | Over $197,300 but not over $250,500 | ||
| 35% | Over $250,525 but not over $375,800 | Over $250,500 but not over $626,350 | ||
| 37% | Over $375,800 | Over $626,350 | ||
It’s also important to note that these income tax rates are marginal, meaning they only apply to the income within the relevant tax bracket range for your filing status.
For example, just because a married couple files a joint return with $100,000 of taxable income in 2024 and their total taxable income falls within the 22% bracket for joint filers, it doesn’t mean they will pay $22,000 in tax. The 22% rate isn’t applied as a flat rate on the entire $100,000.
Instead, the tax brackets are tied to marginal tax rates. This means that in 2024, for example, the first $22,000 of income is taxed at a rate of 10%. The next portion of income, between $22,000 and $89,450, is taxed at a rate of 12%. Finally, only the income exceeding $89,450 is taxed at 22%.
Note: See Kiplinger’s Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates guide for more examples and information on how tax brackets work.
New 2025 tax brackets vs 2024: Do tax brackets go up with inflation?
One of the tax effects of high inflation is that it impacts the tax bracket ranges. This can be seen in the “width” of the 2025 brackets, which have become comparatively wider. (“Width” refers to the difference between the lowest and highest dollar amounts in a tax bracket.)
Wider tax brackets help prevent “bracket creep.” Bracket expansion reduces the likelihood of being pushed into a higher tax bracket if your income remains constant or grows slower than inflation.
What’s the new standard deduction?
The IRS also announced an increase in the standard deduction for the 2025 tax year.
The standard deduction will rise to $15,000 for single filers and married individuals filing separately, a $400 increase from the previous year’s amount.
The increase in the standard deduction means that taxpayers who don’t itemize their deductions can reduce their taxable income by a larger amount, potentially resulting in lower tax bills or larger refunds.
For more information on the 2025 amount, see The New Standard Deduction is Here. For your current 2024 standard deduction, see What’s the Standard Deduction?
What will happen to individual income tax rates and brackets after 2025?
As Kiplinger has reported, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA, also sometimes known as the “Trump tax cuts”) brought significant changes to tax policy, but many key provisions came with an expiration date. Many taxpayers increasingly wonder what will happen to their income tax brackets and rates after December 31, 2025.
- Unless Congress takes action, we’re looking at a return to higher tax rates for most income levels starting in 2026.
- The current seven tax brackets, ranging from 10% to 37%, would revert to a similar structure but with rates reaching up to 39.6%,
This looming change creates a challenge for financial planning. Should you adjust your long-term savings strategy? How might this affect your retirement plans?
While lawmakers might extend or modify these provisions before they expire, it’s good to stay informed and prepare for potential changes. As we approach 2025, expect taxes to be a hotly debated issue in political debates.