Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 November Coupon is up just +3 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Taking it to the House: September New Building Permits were 1.428M units on an annualized basis versus estimates of 1.460M. Housing Starts were 1.354M versus estimates of 1.350M.
The Talking Fed: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “I’m not in a rush to get anywhere,” and “we must get inflation back to our 2% target; I don’t want us to get to a place where inflation stalls out because we haven’t been restrictive for long enough, so I’m going to be patient, and we’re going to let the data show us how inflation proceeds, how employment proceeds.”
This week very quiet with not much key data on inflation, September retail sales increased more than forecasts and weekly jobless claims were lower than thought. High leveraged traders and investors spent the week unwinding their leverage implying the near-term outlook is very uncertain. No movement this week in interest rates but MBS prices did decline as investors also stepped back with duration risk increasing, the Fed rate cuts uncertain.
Next Week’s Calendar: once again not much. Monday Sept leading indicators (usually ignored). Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, September existing home sales, Fed beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Oct prelim S&P global manufacturing index, Sept new home sales. Friday Case/Shiller 20 city home price index, Sept durable goods orders, University of Michigan final October consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The 10 year note yield this week unchanged at 4.08%, the 2 year note +1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week fell 19 bps. The DJIA +412, NASDAQ +97, S&P +50. Gold made new all-time highs this week increasing $63.00/oz; crude oil also a big mover -$6.10 this week on less tensions in the mid-east and some increase in output. Bitcoin exploded, up 5,639, the dollar index increased 0.60.
We are so close to the election now with most polls still a toss-up, the closer we get the less market movement as long it remains close. Thoughts will turn to under ballot races, who will have control of the House and Senate is a big key to how policy initiatives will work out that the two candidates espouse. The 10 year note in a very narrow range now and has been for two weeks, once the range is penetrated expect a strong move in the direction of the breakout (4.00%/4.10%).
PRICES @4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.08% -1 bp
5 year note: 3.88% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.96% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.39% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.12 +1 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.51 +3 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.35 +3 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 149.53 -0.69 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0864 +$0.0033
Dollar Index: 103.50 -0.33
Gold: $2,735.20 +$27.70
Bitcoin: 68,642 +1846
Crude Oil: $69.41 -$1.26
DJIA: 43,275.91 +36.86
NASDAQ: 18,489.55 +115.94
S&P 500: 5864.67 +23.20
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,303.33 | +19.35 | +0.85% | -1.00% | +9.96% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
82,650.06 | +759.86 | +0.93% | -0.07% | +17.28% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,912.97 | +24.92 | +0.86% | -0.59% | +12.90% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | ||||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.0867 | 0.0036 | +0.33% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
149.5300 | -0.6800 | -0.45% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3052 | 0.0041 | +0.32% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6706 | 0.0010 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3799 | 0.0004 | +0.03% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8648 | -0.0012 | -0.14% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
19.8770 | 0.0351 | +0.18% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
23.2135 | -0.0824 | -0.35% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
27.7229 | -0.0913 | -0.33% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.9613 | -0.0172 | -0.43% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
368.2200 | -1.3700 | -0.37% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
95.2501 | -2.1187 | -2.18% | 11:49 AM | ||||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.621 | -3.531 | -3.401 | 7.500 | -3.314 | -3.224 | -3.094 |
| 7.500 | -3.409 | -3.319 | -3.189 | 7.375 | -3.005 | -2.915 | -2.785 |
| 7.375 | -3.080 | -2.990 | -2.860 | 7.250 | -2.633 | -2.543 | -2.413 |
| 7.250 | -2.678 | -2.588 | -2.458 | 7.125 | -2.616 | -2.526 | -2.396 |
| 7.125 | -2.712 | -2.622 | -2.492 | 6.999 | -1.975 | -1.885 | -1.755 |
| 6.999 | -2.482 | -2.392 | -2.262 | 6.875 | -2.025 | -1.935 | -1.805 |
| 6.875 | -2.086 | -1.996 | -1.866 | 6.750 | -1.642 | -1.552 | -1.422 |
| 6.750 | -1.624 | -1.534 | -1.404 | 6.625 | -2.123 | -2.033 | -1.903 |
| 6.625 | -1.796 | -1.706 | -1.576 | 6.500 | -1.799 | -1.709 | -1.579 |
| 6.500 | -1.491 | -1.401 | -1.271 | 6.375 | -1.421 | -1.331 | -1.201 |
| 6.375 | -1.013 | -0.923 | -0.793 | 6.250 | -1.006 | -0.916 | -0.786 |
| 6.250 | -0.483 | -0.393 | -0.263 | 6.125 | -1.115 | -1.025 | -0.895 |
| 6.125 | -0.593 | -0.503 | -0.373 | 5.999 | -0.740 | -0.650 | -0.520 |
| 5.999 | -0.207 | -0.117 | 0.013 | 5.875 | -0.293 | -0.203 | -0.073 |
| 5.875 | 0.405 | 0.495 | 0.625 | 5.750 | 0.159 | 0.249 | 0.379 |
| 5.750 | 1.095 | 1.185 | 1.315 | 5.625 | 0.665 | 0.755 | 0.885 |
| 5.625 | 1.036 | 1.126 | 1.256 | 5.500 | 1.063 | 1.153 | 1.283 |
| 5.500 | 1.585 | 1.675 | 1.805 | 5.375 | 1.557 | 1.647 | 1.777 |
| 5.375 | 2.281 | 2.371 | 2.501 | 5.250 | 2.077 | 2.167 | 2.297 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -2.565 | -2.475 | -2.345 | 6.500 | -2.627 | -2.537 | -2.407 |
| 6.375 | -2.375 | -2.285 | -2.155 | 6.375 | -2.450 | -2.360 | -2.230 |
| 6.250 | -1.993 | -1.903 | -1.773 | 6.250 | -2.068 | -1.978 | -1.848 |
| 6.125 | -1.703 | -1.613 | -1.483 | 6.125 | -1.778 | -1.688 | -1.558 |
| 6.000 | -1.705 | -1.615 | -1.485 | 6.000 | -1.827 | -1.737 | -1.607 |
| 5.875 | -1.481 | -1.391 | -1.261 | 5.875 | -1.618 | -1.528 | -1.398 |
| 5.750 | -1.073 | -0.983 | -0.853 | 5.750 | -1.211 | -1.121 | -0.991 |
| 5.625 | -0.858 | -0.768 | -0.638 | 5.625 | -0.995 | -0.905 | -0.775 |
| 5.500 | -0.806 | -0.716 | -0.586 | 5.500 | -1.120 | -1.030 | -0.900 |
| 5.375 | -0.519 | -0.429 | -0.299 | 5.375 | -0.843 | -0.753 | -0.623 |
| 5.250 | -0.083 | 0.007 | 0.137 | 5.250 | -0.408 | -0.318 | -0.188 |
| 5.125 | 0.251 | 0.341 | 0.471 | 5.125 | -0.074 | 0.016 | 0.146 |
| 5.000 | 0.224 | 0.314 | 0.444 | 5.000 | -0.245 | -0.155 | -0.025 |
| 4.875 | 0.558 | 0.648 | 0.778 | 4.875 | 0.077 | 0.167 | 0.297 |
| 4.750 | 1.029 | 1.119 | 1.249 | 4.750 | 0.548 | 0.638 | 0.768 |
| 4.625 | 1.336 | 1.426 | 1.556 | 4.625 | 0.854 | 0.944 | 1.074 |
| 4.500 | 1.648 | 1.738 | 1.868 | 4.500 | 0.995 | 1.085 | 1.215 |
| 4.375 | 2.056 | 2.146 | 2.276 | 4.375 | 1.387 | 1.477 | 1.607 |
| 4.250 | 2.555 | 2.645 | 2.775 | 4.250 | 1.887 | 1.977 | 2.107 |
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