Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 October Coupon is up +20 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Inflation Nation: Headline August PCE matched expectations with a MOM increase of 0.1%. YOY, it was lighter than expected – up 2.2% versus estimates of 2.3% Core (ex food and energy) PCE was lighter than expected, up 0.1% versus estimates 0.2% on a MOM basis but increased from 2.6% to 2.7% on a YOY basis which was the hottest level since April.
Incomes and Spending: Both missed to the downside as Personal Incomes were up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.4% and Personal Spending was up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.
The Consumer: The final/revised UofM Consumer Sentiment Index moved from 69.0 to 70.1. The 1 year inflation expectations remained at 2.7%.
Interest rates ended the session a little lower today, still talk of another two cuts this year yet no takers, interest rates didn’t budge this week. The Fed’s recalibration focusing now more on employment than inflation has cooled enthusiasm presently. Weekly claims this week were lower than expectations, Treasury auctioned $183B of noted this week and didn’t get any aggressive bidding. Countries in Europe reporting declines in inflation. US inflation today declined a little but essentially in line with estimates. What is up with consumers? Tuesday the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level this year, today the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and its other readings all above forecasts suggesting consumers are happy, can’t square the two, we doubt consumers are as comfortable as the data implied. September consumer confidence index expected at 104.0 declined to 98.7 after August was revised from 103.3 to 105.6. The weakest since July 2022. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 10.3 points to 124.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 4.6 points to 81.7, but remained above 80. (A reading below the threshold of 80 usually signals a recession ahead.) Until employment subsides the Fed isn’t concerned about the level of interest rates.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday September Chicago purchasing managers index. Tuesday Sept ISM manufacturing index, August JOLTS job openings, August construction spending. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps., September ADP private jobs. Thursday weekly jobless claims, September ISM service sector index, S&P global US services index, August factor orders. Friday September employment data.
This Week: The 10 year note increased 3 bps, the 2 year note declined 2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon lost 9 bps. The DJIA increased 250, NASDAQ +36, S&P +35. Gold had a good week except today when it dropped, on the week gold increased $26.00. Crude fell on Saudis increasing output declining $3.33. The dollar declined, the index -0.33; bitcoin caught a strong rally increasing 2,764.
Interest rates generally unchanged this week, inflation data as expected and declined a little.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.76% -4 bp
5 year note: 3.52% -6 bp
2 year note: 3.57% -6 bp
30 year bond: 4.11% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.34 +13 bp (+7 b from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.31 +13 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 101.05 +8 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 142.09 -2.72 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1167 -$0.0010
Dollar Index: 100.39 -0.13
Gold: $2,673.80 -$21.20
Bitcoin: 65,764 +1015
Crude Oil: $68.44 -$0.77
DJIA: 42,313.00 +137.89
NASDAQ: 18,119.59 -70.70
S&P 500: 5738.17 -7.20
SOFR Data 09/27: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.21287, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32675, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.37561, INDEX: 1.16039665
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) | |||||||||||||||
| WIG20:IND
|
2,382.95 | +16.48 | +0.70% | -1.21% | +24.40% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||
| WIG:IND
|
84,947.19 | +547.67 | +0.65% | +0.09% | +29.89% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||
| WIG30:IND
|
3,011.07 | +18.43 | +0.62% | -0.90% | +26.91% | ||||||||||||||||
|
Currency |
Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | |||||||||||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.1162 | -0.0015 | -0.13% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
142.2100 | -2.6000 | -1.80% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3374 | -0.0041 | -0.31% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6903 | 0.0007 | +0.10% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3516 | 0.0051 | +0.38% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8406 | -0.0056 | -0.66% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
22.5144 | 0.0185 | +0.08% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
26.9888 | 0.0346 | +0.13% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.8310 | 0.0060 | +0.16% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
355.5000 | 0.9400 | +0.27% | 9/27/2024 | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
93.3251 | 0.7015 | +0.76% | ||||||||||||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
19.6926 | 0.0585 | +0.30% | 9/27/202 | |||||||||||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.250 | -3.056 | -2.966 | -2.836 | 7.000 | -3.240 | -3.150 | -3.020 |
| 7.125 | -3.252 | -3.162 | -3.032 | 6.875 | -2.907 | -2.817 | -2.687 |
| 7.000 | -3.025 | -2.935 | -2.805 | 6.750 | -2.535 | -2.445 | -2.315 |
| 6.875 | -2.681 | -2.591 | -2.461 | 6.625 | -3.402 | -3.312 | -3.182 |
| 6.750 | -2.264 | -2.174 | -2.044 | 6.500 | -3.086 | -2.996 | -2.866 |
| 6.625 | -2.728 | -2.638 | -2.508 | 6.375 | -2.727 | -2.637 | -2.507 |
| 6.500 | -2.426 | -2.336 | -2.206 | 6.250 | -2.330 | -2.240 | -2.110 |
| 6.375 | -2.014 | -1.924 | -1.794 | 6.125 | -2.863 | -2.773 | -2.643 |
| 6.250 | -1.520 | -1.430 | -1.300 | 5.999 | -2.536 | -2.446 | -2.316 |
| 6.125 | -1.940 | -1.850 | -1.720 | 5.875 | -2.079 | -1.989 | -1.859 |
| 5.999 | -1.630 | -1.540 | -1.410 | 5.750 | -1.609 | -1.519 | -1.389 |
| 5.875 | -1.120 | -1.030 | -0.900 | 5.625 | -1.475 | -1.385 | -1.255 |
| 5.750 | -0.459 | -0.369 | -0.239 | 5.500 | -1.087 | -0.997 | -0.867 |
| 5.625 | -0.850 | -0.760 | -0.630 | 5.375 | -0.611 | -0.521 | -0.391 |
| 5.500 | -0.335 | -0.245 | -0.115 | 5.250 | -0.061 | 0.029 | 0.159 |
| 5.375 | 0.327 | 0.417 | 0.547 | 5.125 | 0.601 | 0.691 | 0.821 |
| 5.250 | 1.062 | 1.152 | 1.282 | 4.999 | 0.961 | 1.051 | 1.181 |
| 5.125 | 1.322 | 1.412 | 1.542 | 4.875 | 1.518 | 1.608 | 1.738 |
| 4.999 | 1.931 | 2.021 | 2.151 | 4.750 | 2.167 | 2.257 | 2.387 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.250 | -2.866 | -2.776 | -2.646 | 6.000 | -2.934 | -2.844 | -2.714 |
| 6.125 | -2.929 | -2.839 | -2.709 | 5.875 | -2.722 | -2.632 | -2.502 |
| 6.000 | -2.731 | -2.641 | -2.511 | 5.750 | -2.333 | -2.243 | -2.113 |
| 5.875 | -2.503 | -2.413 | -2.283 | 5.625 | -2.438 | -2.348 | -2.218 |
| 5.750 | -2.114 | -2.024 | -1.894 | 5.500 | -2.272 | -2.182 | -2.052 |
| 5.625 | -2.220 | -2.130 | -2.000 | 5.375 | -2.003 | -1.913 | -1.783 |
| 5.500 | -1.957 | -1.867 | -1.737 | 5.250 | -1.583 | -1.493 | -1.363 |
| 5.375 | -1.678 | -1.588 | -1.458 | 5.125 | -1.807 | -1.717 | -1.587 |
| 5.250 | -1.258 | -1.168 | -1.038 | 5.000 | -1.624 | -1.534 | -1.404 |
| 5.125 | -1.482 | -1.392 | -1.262 | 4.875 | -1.307 | -1.217 | -1.087 |
| 5.000 | -1.156 | -1.066 | -0.936 | 4.750 | -0.852 | -0.762 | -0.632 |
| 4.875 | -0.826 | -0.736 | -0.606 | 4.625 | -0.808 | -0.718 | -0.588 |
| 4.750 | -0.371 | -0.281 | -0.151 | 4.500 | -0.572 | -0.482 | -0.352 |
| 4.625 | -0.326 | -0.236 | -0.106 | 4.375 | -0.185 | -0.095 | 0.035 |
| 4.500 | 0.082 | 0.172 | 0.302 | 4.250 | 0.302 | 0.392 | 0.522 |
| 4.375 | 0.483 | 0.573 | 0.703 | 4.125 | 0.801 | 0.891 | 1.021 |
| 4.250 | 0.971 | 1.061 | 1.191 | 4.000 | 1.329 | 1.419 | 1.549 |
| 4.125 | 1.470 | 1.560 | 1.690 | 3.875 | 1.758 | 1.848 | 1.978 |
| 4.000 | 2.019 | 2.109 | 2.239 | 3.750 | 2.218 | 2.308 | 2.438 |
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