Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday!! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
August Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were up 142K versus estimates of 160K.
July NFP was revised lower from 114K to only 89K.
June NFP was revised lower from 179K down to 118K.
The rolling three month average is now only 116K.
Wages:
The Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 14 cents to $35.21.
MOM, Average Hourly Earnings were up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.
YOY, Average Hourly Earnings were up 3.8% versus estimates of 3.7%.
Unemployment:
The Unemployment Rate dropped back from 4.3% to 4.2% which was expected.
The U6 Underemployment Rate moved higher from 7.8% to 7.9%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.7%.
The Talking Fed: Fed Governor Waller said “Considering the achieved and continuing progress on inflation and moderation in the labor market, I believe the time has come to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at our upcoming meeting.”
Last night Chicago Fed Pres Austin Goolsbee waded in on more rate cuts. “The long arc shows inflation is coming down very significantly, and the unemployment rate is rising faster,” Given the more favorable inflation data and the less favorable unemployment data, “it is pretty clear that the path is not just rate cuts soon,” Goolsbee said, but multiple cuts over the next 12 months, as the Fed has projected in its most recent “dot plot.” He added he saw “more” warning signs about the cooling labor market.
This morning Fed Governor Christopher Waller after the August employment report said it’s important for the US central bank to begin cutting interest rates this month amid rising risks of further weakening in the labor market. Waller said he’s also “open-minded” about the potential for a bigger rate cut and would advocate for one if appropriate, “The balance of risks has shifted toward the employment side of our dual mandate, policy needs to adjust accordingly”… “The current batch of data no longer requires patience, it requires action.” “The data that we have received in the past three days indicates to me that the labor market is continuing to soften but not deteriorate, and this judgment is important to our upcoming decision on monetary policy.”
Waller’s remarks follow a series of declining jobs; the July employment data, the BLS revising job growth from April 2023 to March 2024 by cutting 118K jobs that were originally reported, the big decline in the July JOLTS job openings and now today the August jobs not close to estimates and downward revisions to the very weak July employment originally reported. How much more does the Fed need to make a big cut (50 bps) in two weeks? Next Tuesday and Wednesday August CPI and PPI, the only scheduled key data that could change from 50 bps to 25 bps would have to shock markets with exploding inflation, and that isn’t likely. More evidence in rate markets of 50 bps, the more sensitive 2 year note yield fell 8 bps today.
The August employment data this morning sent interest rates lower and added a lot to the view the Fed will go 50 bps when the FOMC meets on the 18th. The initial knee jerk reaction to the data pushed the 10 to its lowest level this year at 3.66% but didn’t hold, the note at 9:00 am 3.73% is unchanged from yesterday’s 3 bp fall. The job market is rapidly slowing, NFP jobs were thought to be +160K, reported at 142K and July NFP jobs were revised from 114K to 89K. Private jobs estimates +136K reported at 118K and July jobs revised from 97K to 74K. The key manufacturing jobs tanked in August, expected -2K declined 24K. The unemployment rate though did decline from 4.3% in July to 4.2% and average hourly earnings increased to 3.8% from 3.6% in July. The labor participation rate at 62.7% was expected and the same as in July.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday July consumer credit (focus remains on revolving credit). Tuesday August NFIB small business optimism, $58B 3 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, August CPI, $39B 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, August PPI, August Treasury budget (so far politicians and markets continue to outwardly ignore the Federal debt crisis that is coming), $22B 30 year bond auction. Friday September University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index, August import and export prices.
This Week’s changes: The 10 year note this week declined 20 bps, the 2 year declined 26 bps. FNMA 5.5 coupon +58 bps, the 6.0 coupon +36 bps. The DJIA -1,218, NASDAQ -1,023, S&P -240. The Crude oil declined $5.10 on OPEC cuts. Gold slipped $10.00. The dollar weakened, the index -0.31. Bitcoin crushed, down 4,910.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.71% -2 bp
5 year note: 3.50% -5 bp
2 year note: 3.66% -9 bp
30 year bond: 4.02% unch
30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.27 +12 bp (+9 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.21 +10 bp (+7 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 101.03 +10 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 142.22 -1.00 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1090 -$0.0023
Dollar Index: 101.19 +0.08
Gold: $2,524.00 -$19.20
Bitcoin: 53,872 -2148
Crude Oil: $68.05 -$1.10
DJIA: 40,345.41 -410.31
NASDAQ: 16,690.83 -436.83
S&P 500: 5408.42 -94.99
SOFR Data 09/06: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34274, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36805, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39590, INDEX: 1.15691889
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) | ||||||||||||
| WIG20:IND
|
2,318.20 | -53.74 | -2.27% | +3.59% | +18.39% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
| WIG:IND
|
81,744.50 | -1,685.15 | -2.02% | +4.44% | +22.47% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
| WIG30:IND
|
2,919.55 | -67.46 | -2.26% | +3.92% | +20.62% | 11:15 AM | ||||||||||||
|
WALUTY
Currency |
Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | ||||||||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.1084 | -0.0027 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
142.3000 | -1.1500 | -0.80% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3129 | -0.0051 | -0.39% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6671 | -0.0070 | -1.04% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3573 | 0.0070 | +0.52% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8430 | -0.0010 | -0.12% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
22.5833 | 0.0510 | +0.23% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
27.1789 | 0.0642 | +0.24% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.8640 | 0.0090 | +0.23% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
355.2800 | 1.3300 | +0.38% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
90.4536 | 2.1869 | +2.48% | 11:17 AM | ||||||||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
19.9799 | 0.1124 | +0.57% | 4:59 PM | ||||||||||||||
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.99% | 4.95% | 7.53% | 28.83% | 42.54% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.250 | -3.015 | -2.925 | -2.795 | 6.999 | -3.434 | -3.344 | -3.214 |
| 7.125 | -3.253 | -3.163 | -3.033 | 6.875 | -3.062 | -2.972 | -2.842 |
| 6.999 | -2.992 | -2.902 | -2.772 | 6.750 | -2.670 | -2.580 | -2.450 |
| 6.875 | -2.642 | -2.552 | -2.422 | 6.625 | -3.595 | -3.505 | -3.375 |
| 6.750 | -2.207 | -2.117 | -1.987 | 6.500 | -3.287 | -3.197 | -3.067 |
| 6.625 | -2.699 | -2.609 | -2.479 | 6.375 | -2.900 | -2.810 | -2.680 |
| 6.500 | -2.377 | -2.287 | -2.157 | 6.250 | -2.458 | -2.368 | -2.238 |
| 6.375 | -1.962 | -1.872 | -1.742 | 6.125 | -2.980 | -2.890 | -2.760 |
| 6.250 | -1.452 | -1.362 | -1.232 | 5.999 | -2.682 | -2.592 | -2.462 |
| 6.125 | -2.024 | -1.934 | -1.804 | 5.875 | -2.183 | -2.093 | -1.963 |
| 5.999 | -1.692 | -1.602 | -1.472 | 5.750 | -1.674 | -1.584 | -1.454 |
| 5.875 | -1.176 | -1.086 | -0.956 | 5.625 | -1.680 | -1.590 | -1.460 |
| 5.750 | -0.522 | -0.432 | -0.302 | 5.500 | -1.290 | -1.200 | -1.070 |
| 5.625 | -0.819 | -0.729 | -0.599 | 5.375 | -0.789 | -0.699 | -0.569 |
| 5.500 | -0.290 | -0.200 | -0.070 | 5.250 | -0.215 | -0.125 | 0.005 |
| 5.375 | 0.375 | 0.465 | 0.595 | 5.125 | 0.412 | 0.502 | 0.632 |
| 5.250 | 1.109 | 1.199 | 1.329 | 5.000 | 0.814 | 0.904 | 1.034 |
| 5.125 | 1.357 | 1.447 | 1.577 | 4.875 | 1.360 | 1.450 | 1.580 |
| 5.000 | 1.965 | 2.055 | 2.185 | 4.750 | 2.012 | 2.102 | 2.232 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.375 | -2.866 | -2.776 | -2.646 | 6.125 | -3.129 | -3.039 | -2.909 |
| 6.250 | -2.512 | -2.422 | -2.292 | 6.000 | -2.921 | -2.831 | -2.701 |
| 6.125 | -2.736 | -2.646 | -2.516 | 5.875 | -2.672 | -2.582 | -2.452 |
| 6.000 | -2.517 | -2.427 | -2.297 | 5.750 | -2.281 | -2.191 | -2.061 |
| 5.875 | -2.254 | -2.164 | -2.034 | 5.625 | -2.613 | -2.523 | -2.393 |
| 5.750 | -1.863 | -1.773 | -1.643 | 5.500 | -2.340 | -2.250 | -2.120 |
| 5.625 | -2.129 | -2.039 | -1.909 | 5.375 | -2.037 | -1.947 | -1.817 |
| 5.500 | -1.842 | -1.752 | -1.622 | 5.250 | -1.617 | -1.527 | -1.397 |
| 5.375 | -1.525 | -1.435 | -1.305 | 5.125 | -1.891 | -1.801 | -1.671 |
| 5.250 | -1.104 | -1.014 | -0.884 | 5.000 | -1.552 | -1.462 | -1.332 |
| 5.125 | -1.318 | -1.228 | -1.098 | 4.875 | -1.218 | -1.128 | -0.998 |
| 5.000 | -0.962 | -0.872 | -0.742 | 4.750 | -0.766 | -0.676 | -0.546 |
| 4.875 | -0.612 | -0.522 | -0.392 | 4.625 | -0.593 | -0.503 | -0.373 |
| 4.750 | -0.159 | -0.069 | 0.061 | 4.500 | -0.179 | -0.089 | 0.041 |
| 4.625 | 0.040 | 0.130 | 0.260 | 4.375 | 0.215 | 0.305 | 0.435 |
| 4.500 | 0.473 | 0.563 | 0.693 | 4.250 | 0.699 | 0.789 | 0.919 |
| 4.375 | 0.883 | 0.973 | 1.103 | 4.125 | 1.199 | 1.289 | 1.419 |
| 4.250 | 1.368 | 1.458 | 1.588 | 4.000 | 1.732 | 1.822 | 1.952 |
| 4.125 | 1.868 | 1.958 | 2.088 | 3.875 | 2.180 | 2.270 | 2.400 |