Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 September Coupon is up +20 BPS at 3:15 PM ET.
Taking it to the House: July’s New Home Sales were better than expected, 739K versus estimates of 628K.
The Talking Fed: The most anticipated event of the week happened at 10 am with Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at The Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming. As expected, he acknowledged that the Fed would begin to cut rates but fell way short of endorsing a 50BPS cut at the next meeting. Here are a few key takeaways. The first one pretty much sums up everything:
- “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
- “It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon.”
- “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”
Jerome Powell said what was widely expected, it’s time to cut rates. Whether it is 25 or 50 bps depends on incoming data; the August employment report after the shocking decline in July for jobs, three inflation reports between now and September 18th. Reading the comments posted on news wires the optimism is over-whelming based on quotes firms like BlackRock. Talk is always cheap, looking at interest rates today the bellwether 10 year note since 8/12 hasn’t moved, it has traded in a 10 bps point range for 10 sessions. Markets got what they expected, a relief that Powell finally stepped of the center line and commented the path is now clear. “The time has come for policy to adjust, “the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.” He took time to recap how the Fed misjudged inflation as transitory back in 2021 and got a laughs from the audience. He did make a point that that further job market weakening would be undesirable.
Looking at the price action today, while there is optimism that the Fed may go 50 bps in September, presently it is wishful thinking until more data surfaces. Next Friday July PCE inflation is on the schedule as well as personal income and spending. Will traders front run the data on inflation and the August employment report on Sept 6th? After the shock of the July employment release that sent panic to extreme levels traders may be less aggressive.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday July durable goods orders. Tuesday June Case/Shiller home price index, August consumer confidence index. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q2 second estimate GDP, July pending home sales. Friday July PCE (personal consumption expenditures) the Fed’s fav, July personal income and spending, U. of Michigan final August consumer sentiment.
This Week: 10 year note this week -8 bp, 2 year note -24 bp. The DJIA +515 this week NASDAQ +246, S&P +81. Gold this week flat +$3.00. Crude oil fell $1.84 this week. The dollar continued to lose ground, the index fell 1.79, a strong move. Bitcoin rallied today, for the week the coin increased 3.980.
Will traders and Wall Street begin factoring 50 bps in September? It didn’t occur today and the prudent approach to trading is to wait at least until the next inflation release next Friday, but waiting until then could leave a lot of unrealized gains on the table. As noted above interest rates haven’t changed over the last two weeks, but now there is little question the Fed will cut rates in Sept although the amount of the cut needs supporting data.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.81% -5 bp
5 year note: 3.65% -7 bp
2 year note: 3.73% -8 bp
30 year bond: 4.09% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.90 +29 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 am, +8 bp from 10:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.98 +16 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am, +6 bp from 10:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.84 +27 bp (+26 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 144.17 -2.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1189 +$0.0027
Dollar Index: 100.68 -0.83
Gold: $2,547.00 +$30.20
Bitcoin: 63,644 +3365
Crude Oil: $74.91 +$1.90
DJIA: 41,175.08 +462.30
NASDAQ: 17,877.79 +258.44
S&P 500: 5634.61 +63.97
SOFR Data 08/23: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34784, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36749, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39403, INDEX: 1.15452182
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,401.25 | +1.20 | +0.05% | -1.79% | +19.33% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
84,158.33 | -12.04 | -0.01% | +0.53% | +24.30% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,017.72 | -1.81 | -0.06% | -1.25% | +21.80% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1192 | 0.0080 | +0.72% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
144.3700 | -1.9200 | -1.31% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3214 | 0.0123 | +0.94% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6795 | 0.0090 | +1.34% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3509 | -0.0107 | -0.79% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8479 | -0.0043 | -0.50% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.3853 | -0.1922 | -0.85% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.9174 | -0.1938 | -0.71% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8110 | -0.0420 | -1.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
351.6700 | -2.6500 | -0.75% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
91.5002 | 0.0059 | +0.01% | 11:53 AM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.1111 | -0.4132 | -2.12% | 4:59 PM |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.11% | 1.58% | 7.89% | 30.54% | 40.19% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.530 | -3.480 | -3.350 | 7.250 | -3.018 | -2.968 | -2.838 |
| 7.375 | -3.198 | -3.148 | -3.018 | 7.125 | -3.381 | -3.331 | -3.201 |
| 7.250 | -2.795 | -2.745 | -2.615 | 6.999 | -3.105 | -3.055 | -2.925 |
| 7.125 | -3.019 | -2.969 | -2.839 | 6.875 | -2.738 | -2.688 | -2.558 |
| 6.999 | -2.755 | -2.705 | -2.575 | 6.750 | -2.348 | -2.298 | -2.168 |
| 6.875 | -2.374 | -2.324 | -2.194 | 6.625 | -3.130 | -3.080 | -2.950 |
| 6.750 | -1.916 | -1.866 | -1.736 | 6.500 | -2.798 | -2.748 | -2.618 |
| 6.625 | -2.316 | -2.266 | -2.136 | 6.375 | -2.408 | -2.358 | -2.228 |
| 6.500 | -2.003 | -1.953 | -1.823 | 6.250 | -1.974 | -1.924 | -1.794 |
| 6.375 | -1.544 | -1.494 | -1.364 | 6.125 | -2.363 | -2.313 | -2.183 |
| 6.250 | -1.007 | -0.957 | -0.827 | 5.999 | -2.038 | -1.988 | -1.858 |
| 6.125 | -1.517 | -1.467 | -1.337 | 5.875 | -1.548 | -1.498 | -1.368 |
| 5.999 | -1.161 | -1.111 | -0.981 | 5.750 | -1.041 | -0.991 | -0.861 |
| 5.875 | -0.575 | -0.525 | -0.395 | 5.625 | -0.912 | -0.862 | -0.732 |
| 5.750 | 0.102 | 0.152 | 0.282 | 5.500 | -0.496 | -0.446 | -0.316 |
| 5.625 | -0.072 | -0.022 | 0.108 | 5.375 | 0.007 | 0.057 | 0.187 |
| 5.500 | 0.481 | 0.531 | 0.661 | 5.250 | 0.571 | 0.621 | 0.751 |
| 5.375 | 1.167 | 1.217 | 1.347 | 5.125 | 1.270 | 1.320 | 1.450 |
| 5.250 | 1.904 | 1.954 | 2.084 | 5.000 | 1.687 | 1.737 | 1.867 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -2.566 | -2.516 | -2.386 | 6.375 | -2.682 | -2.632 | -2.502 |
| 6.375 | -2.357 | -2.307 | -2.177 | 6.250 | -2.308 | -2.258 | -2.128 |
| 6.250 | -1.983 | -1.933 | -1.803 | 6.125 | -2.616 | -2.566 | -2.436 |
| 6.125 | -2.222 | -2.172 | -2.042 | 6.000 | -2.403 | -2.353 | -2.223 |
| 6.000 | -1.998 | -1.948 | -1.818 | 5.875 | -2.158 | -2.108 | -1.978 |
| 5.875 | -1.740 | -1.690 | -1.560 | 5.750 | -1.756 | -1.706 | -1.576 |
| 5.750 | -1.337 | -1.287 | -1.157 | 5.625 | -2.029 | -1.979 | -1.849 |
| 5.625 | -1.544 | -1.494 | -1.364 | 5.500 | -1.752 | -1.702 | -1.572 |
| 5.500 | -1.254 | -1.204 | -1.074 | 5.375 | -1.452 | -1.402 | -1.272 |
| 5.375 | -0.940 | -0.890 | -0.760 | 5.250 | -1.019 | -0.969 | -0.839 |
| 5.250 | -0.506 | -0.456 | -0.326 | 5.125 | -1.068 | -1.018 | -0.888 |
| 5.125 | -0.495 | -0.445 | -0.315 | 5.000 | -0.728 | -0.678 | -0.548 |
| 5.000 | -0.138 | -0.088 | 0.042 | 4.875 | -0.390 | -0.340 | -0.210 |
| 4.875 | 0.215 | 0.265 | 0.395 | 4.750 | 0.078 | 0.128 | 0.258 |
| 4.750 | 0.684 | 0.734 | 0.864 | 4.625 | 0.178 | 0.228 | 0.358 |
| 4.625 | 0.843 | 0.893 | 1.023 | 4.500 | 0.597 | 0.647 | 0.777 |
| 4.500 | 1.280 | 1.330 | 1.460 | 4.375 | 0.996 | 1.046 | 1.176 |
| 4.375 | 1.695 | 1.745 | 1.875 | 4.250 | 1.493 | 1.543 | 1.673 |
| 4.250 | 2.193 | 2.243 | 2.373 | 4.125 | 1.940 | 1.990 | 2.120 |