Magazyn Kieszeń (516) 08.17.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 September Coupon is up +13 BPS at 3:10 PM ET.

Taking it to the house: July Building Permits were lower than expected, 1.396M versus estimates of 1.430M. Same story with New Housing Starts, 1.238M versus estimates of 1.330M.

Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Survey was a smidge better than expected but still at anemic levels 67.8 versus estimates of 66.7.

 

It was a volatile week with inflation softening on Tuesday and Wednesday, then yesterday profit-taking by traders on stronger retail sales and higher weekly jobless claims yanked the 50 bp FF cut expected next month out of the possibility sending rates higher and MBS prices lower. We can’t say it strong enough, for over a month now US financial markets have prayed for the Fed to get going. It appeared the Fed had a green light when the July employment report was released on 8/2, according to the data the economy was quickly falling Iino recession. The unemployment rate thought to be unchanged from June at 4.1% increased to 4.3%. Payrolls (NFP) expected at 180K from 206K increased just 114K. Private jobs in June 136K, the estimate for July 155K, as reported +97K. July average hourly earnings +0.2% against +0.3%, year/year average earnings declined from 3.8% in June (revised from 3.9%) fell to 3.6%.

The 10 year note yield declined from 4.16% on 7/31 to 3.70% at the end of July before reversing to 4.00% last Friday, then edging down again to 3.80% before increasing yesterday as recession forecasts dissipated and Fed reality took over. Weekly jobless claims increased, and July retail sales exceeded forecasts. For all the talk and opinions circulating presently there isn’t much confidence behind it and is setting near term volatility at extreme levels when key economic data is reported. One market benefiting, gold; today gold hit its 28th all-time high this year, safety above all else.

Next week’s economic calendar is not as heavy as we had this week. Monday July leading economic indicators (generally doesn’t get much direct attention). Nothing on the calendar Tuesday. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications and FOMC minutes. Thursday weekly jobless claims, August prelim S&P global manufacturing and service sector indexes, Thursday July existing home sales, Jackson Hole symposium begins> Friday July new home sales, Jackson Hole continues.

This week: The 10 year note yield declined 5 bps, the 2 year note increased 1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon increased 20 bps. The DJIA jumped 1,162, NASDAQ -113, S&P +210. Gold increased $76.00 this week, crude oil -$0.24. The US dollar index declined 0.68, a big move lower. Bitcoin fell 1,030.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 3.89% -2 bp

5 year note: 3.77% -2 bp

2 year note: 4.07% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.14% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.56 +15 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.71 +12 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.58 +11 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 147.70 -1.61 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1022 +$0.0052

Dollar Index: 102.47 -0.51

Gold: $2,544.00 +$51.50

Bitcoin: 59,664 +2607

Crude Oil: $76.75 -$1.41

DJIA: 40,659.76 +96.70

NASDAQ: 17,631.72 +37.22

S&P 500: 5554.25 +11.03

SOFR Data 08/16: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35319, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36704, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39346, INDEX: 1.15332895

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,421.06	+76.92	+3.28%	-5.79%	+16.01%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	84,690.75	+2,341.08	+2.84%	-4.42%	+20.74%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,045.57	+94.58	+3.20%	-5.10%	+17.87%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1027	0.0055	+0.50%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	147.6300	-1.6500	-1.11%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2944	0.0089	+0.69%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6669	0.0057	+0.86%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3680	-0.0050	-0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8661	-0.0065	-0.74%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	22.8387	-0.1586	-0.69%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.3200	-0.1367	-0.50%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.8668	-0.0416	-1.06%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	357.8700	-2.7300	-0.76%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	89.5996	0.7630	+0.86%	11:30 AM

 

USD-MXN

18.6391

-0.0087

-0.05%

4:59 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.695	-3.645	-3.515	7.375	-3.307	-3.257	-3.127
7.500	-3.444	-3.394	-3.264	7.250	-2.932	-2.882	-2.752
7.375	-3.113	-3.063	-2.933	7.125	-3.258	-3.208	-3.078
7.250	-2.710	-2.660	-2.530	6.999	-3.024	-2.974	-2.844
7.125	-2.907	-2.857	-2.727	6.875	-2.627	-2.577	-2.447
6.999	-2.640	-2.590	-2.460	6.750	-2.197	-2.147	-2.017
6.875	-2.237	-2.187	-2.057	6.625	-2.960	-2.910	-2.780
6.750	-1.759	-1.709	-1.579	6.500	-2.650	-2.600	-2.470
6.625	-2.128	-2.078	-1.948	6.375	-2.228	-2.178	-2.048
6.500	-1.777	-1.727	-1.597	6.250	-1.745	-1.695	-1.565
6.375	-1.320	-1.270	-1.140	6.125	-2.026	-1.976	-1.846
6.250	-0.775	-0.725	-0.595	5.999	-1.707	-1.657	-1.527
6.125	-1.195	-1.145	-1.015	5.875	-1.201	-1.151	-1.021
5.999	-0.797	-0.747	-0.617	5.750	-0.658	-0.608	-0.478
5.875	-0.198	-0.148	-0.018	5.625	-0.415	-0.365	-0.235
5.750	0.491	0.541	0.671	5.500	-0.011	0.039	0.169
5.625	0.415	0.465	0.595	5.375	0.504	0.554	0.684
5.500	0.990	1.040	1.170	5.250	1.075	1.125	1.255
5.375	1.686	1.736	1.866	5.125	1.798	1.848	1.978

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.625	-2.783	-2.733	-2.603	6.500	-2.882	-2.832	-2.702
6.500	-2.570	-2.520	-2.390	6.375	-2.649	-2.599	-2.469
6.375	-2.325	-2.275	-2.145	6.250	-2.271	-2.221	-2.091
6.250	-1.946	-1.896	-1.766	6.125	-2.658	-2.608	-2.478
6.125	-2.270	-2.220	-2.090	6.000	-2.407	-2.357	-2.227
6.000	-2.004	-1.954	-1.824	5.875	-2.123	-2.073	-1.943
5.875	-1.705	-1.655	-1.525	5.750	-1.718	-1.668	-1.538
5.750	-1.299	-1.249	-1.119	5.625	-2.014	-1.964	-1.834
5.625	-1.534	-1.484	-1.354	5.500	-1.705	-1.655	-1.525
5.500	-1.209	-1.159	-1.029	5.375	-1.376	-1.326	-1.196
5.375	-0.864	-0.814	-0.684	5.250	-0.940	-0.890	-0.760
5.250	-0.427	-0.377	-0.247	5.125	-0.895	-0.845	-0.715
5.125	-0.322	-0.272	-0.142	5.000	-0.511	-0.461	-0.331
5.000	0.077	0.127	0.257	4.875	-0.145	-0.095	0.035
4.875	0.460	0.510	0.640	4.750	0.329	0.379	0.509
4.750	0.935	0.985	1.115	4.625	0.511	0.561	0.691
4.625	1.173	1.223	1.353	4.500	0.950	1.000	1.130
4.500	1.630	1.680	1.810	4.375	1.369	1.419	1.549
4.375	2.068	2.118	2.248	4.250	1.865	1.915	2.045

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.11%	1.58%	7.89%	30.54%	40.19%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.56% -0.02%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.56% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.14% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.10% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.73% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.38% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.12% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.14% -0.01%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.66% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/15   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.54% -0.01 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 5.96% -0.07 0.65 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% +0.01 0.37 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/14

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.59 +0.12   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.59 +0.12 UMBS 6.0 101.76 +0.08 GNMA 5.5 100.59 +0.12 GNMA 6.0 101.32 +0.05 Pricing as of: 8/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8826 -0.0286   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.054 -0.038 5 YR Treasury 3.758 -0.028 7 YR Treasury 3.797 -0.025 10 YR Treasury 3.883 -0.029 30 YR Treasury 4.138 -0.031 Pricing as of: 8/16 5:31PM EST