Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 September Coupon is flat at +2 BPS at 3:20 PM ET.
Domestic Flavor:
There were no domestic economic releases or speeches today.
Across the Pond:
China: CPI MOM 0.5% versus estimates 0.3%
Germany: CPI MOM 0.3% versus estimates 0.3%
It was a volatile week. Markets adjusting to higher weekly claims a week ago, the very weak July employment data last Friday, Treasury sold $125B of 3s, 10s and 30s this week, all three were met with very weak demand. Last Monday the 10 year note opened at 3.70% down from 4.16% on Wed 7/30, that was the low, later that morning the ISM July services sector index was stronger than thought, from 10 am ET Monday the 10 year note yield has increased from 3.70% to 3.79% today. The daily swings were huge as markets put the weak employment and jobless claims back into perspective. This week the 10 increased 16 bps this week, MBS price down 25 bps.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday July Treasury budget. Tuesday July PPI, NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications. July CPI. Thursday July retail sales, weekly jobless claims, July import and export prices, July industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB August housing market index. Friday July building permits and housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This Week: 10 year note yield +15 bps, 2 year note +17 bps. FNMA 30 year mortgage price -33 bps. The DJIA -239, NASDAQ -331, S&P -3. Gold held; down just $0.11, crude oil increased $3.09 as tensions edged higher in the mid-east. The dollar quiet, the index -0.07, bitcoin decline 1,216.
Next week expect volatility to continue with Fed speakers and markets continuing to adjust to the recent surprising data. The potential for increased military tensions may increase, the last spike in tensions occurred over a weekend saving excess volatility if it would have occurred during the week in all global markets.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.94% -5 bp
5 year note: 3.80% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.06% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.22% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.36 +3 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.55 +5 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.44 +6 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 146.64 -0.59 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0919 unch
Dollar Index: 103.15 -0.06
Gold: $2,468.20 +$4.90
Bitcoin: 60,704 +1303
Crude Oil: $76.99 +$0.80
DJIA: 39,497.54 +51.05
NASDAQ: 16,745.30 +85.28
S&P 500: 5344.16 +24.85
SOFR Data 08/09: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35353, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36467, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39208, INDEX: 1.15213219
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,258.52 | -5.58 | -0.25% | -11.22% | +7.73% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
79,603.19 | -133.30 | -0.17% | -9.73% | +13.73% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,840.47 | -13.21 | -0.46% | -10.73% | +9.51% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0917 | -0.0002 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
146.6100 | -0.6200 | -0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2761 | 0.0013 | +0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6578 | -0.0015 | -0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3730 | -0.0003 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8651 | -0.0016 | -0.18% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
18.8316 | -0.0406 | -0.22% | 4:59 P |
| USD-CZK
|
23.1265 | -0.0249 | -0.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.5947 | 0.0033 | +0.01% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9581 | 0.0014 | +0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
361.1000 | -1.9100 | -0.53% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
88.6002 | 1.8412 | +2.12% | 12:05 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.550 | -3.500 | -3.370 | 7.375 | -3.163 | -3.113 | -2.983 |
| 7.500 | -3.299 | -3.249 | -3.119 | 7.250 | -2.788 | -2.738 | -2.608 |
| 7.375 | -2.969 | -2.919 | -2.789 | 7.125 | -3.116 | -3.066 | -2.936 |
| 7.250 | -2.567 | -2.517 | -2.387 | 7.000 | -2.832 | -2.782 | -2.652 |
| 7.125 | -2.764 | -2.714 | -2.584 | 6.875 | -2.486 | -2.436 | -2.306 |
| 7.000 | -2.478 | -2.428 | -2.298 | 6.750 | -2.056 | -2.006 | -1.876 |
| 6.875 | -2.096 | -2.046 | -1.916 | 6.625 | -2.793 | -2.743 | -2.613 |
| 6.750 | -1.619 | -1.569 | -1.439 | 6.500 | -2.486 | -2.436 | -2.306 |
| 6.625 | -1.961 | -1.911 | -1.781 | 6.375 | -2.068 | -2.018 | -1.888 |
| 6.500 | -1.610 | -1.560 | -1.430 | 6.250 | -1.582 | -1.532 | -1.402 |
| 6.375 | -1.157 | -1.107 | -0.977 | 6.125 | -1.803 | -1.753 | -1.623 |
| 6.250 | -0.614 | -0.564 | -0.434 | 5.999 | -1.485 | -1.435 | -1.305 |
| 6.125 | -0.972 | -0.922 | -0.792 | 5.875 | -0.978 | -0.928 | -0.798 |
| 5.999 | -0.573 | -0.523 | -0.393 | 5.750 | -0.437 | -0.387 | -0.257 |
| 5.875 | 0.024 | 0.074 | 0.204 | 5.625 | -0.078 | -0.028 | 0.102 |
| 5.750 | 0.712 | 0.762 | 0.892 | 5.500 | 0.325 | 0.375 | 0.505 |
| 5.625 | 0.753 | 0.803 | 0.933 | 5.375 | 0.839 | 0.889 | 1.019 |
| 5.500 | 1.329 | 1.379 | 1.509 | 5.250 | 1.411 | 1.461 | 1.591 |
| 5.375 | 2.022 | 2.072 | 2.202 | 5.125 | 2.134 | 2.184 | 2.314 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.625 | -2.599 | -2.549 | -2.419 | 6.375 | -2.467 | -2.417 | -2.287 |
| 6.500 | -2.386 | -2.336 | -2.206 | 6.250 | -2.093 | -2.043 | -1.913 |
| 6.375 | -2.142 | -2.092 | -1.962 | 6.125 | -2.447 | -2.397 | -2.267 |
| 6.250 | -1.768 | -1.718 | -1.588 | 6.000 | -2.195 | -2.145 | -2.015 |
| 6.125 | -2.059 | -2.009 | -1.879 | 5.875 | -1.910 | -1.860 | -1.730 |
| 6.000 | -1.791 | -1.741 | -1.611 | 5.750 | -1.508 | -1.458 | -1.328 |
| 5.875 | -1.492 | -1.442 | -1.312 | 5.625 | -1.856 | -1.806 | -1.676 |
| 5.750 | -1.089 | -1.039 | -0.909 | 5.500 | -1.545 | -1.495 | -1.365 |
| 5.625 | -1.376 | -1.326 | -1.196 | 5.375 | -1.216 | -1.166 | -1.036 |
| 5.500 | -1.049 | -0.999 | -0.869 | 5.250 | -0.782 | -0.732 | -0.602 |
| 5.375 | -0.703 | -0.653 | -0.523 | 5.125 | -0.830 | -0.780 | -0.650 |
| 5.250 | -0.269 | -0.219 | -0.089 | 5.000 | -0.447 | -0.397 | -0.267 |
| 5.125 | -0.257 | -0.207 | -0.077 | 4.875 | -0.082 | -0.032 | 0.098 |
| 5.000 | 0.141 | 0.191 | 0.321 | 4.750 | 0.388 | 0.438 | 0.568 |
| 4.875 | 0.523 | 0.573 | 0.703 | 4.625 | 0.511 | 0.561 | 0.691 |
| 4.750 | 0.994 | 1.044 | 1.174 | 4.500 | 0.948 | 0.998 | 1.128 |
| 4.625 | 1.172 | 1.222 | 1.352 | 4.375 | 1.366 | 1.416 | 1.546 |
| 4.500 | 1.628 | 1.678 | 1.808 | 4.250 | 1.861 | 1.911 | 2.041 |
| 4.375 | 2.065 | 2.115 | 2.245 | 4.125 | 2.315 | 2.365 | 2.495 |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.11% | 1.58% | 7.89% | 30.54% | 40.19% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |