Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here.
Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
July Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were 114K versus estimates of 175K.
June NFP revised from 206K down to 179K.
May NFP revised from 218K down to 216K.
The rolling three month average is now 170K.
Wages:
The national Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 8 cents to $35.07.
MOM, Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.
YOY, Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.6% versus estimates of 3.7%.
Unemployment:
The July Unemployment Rate is higher than expected, 4.3% versus estimates of 4.1%.
The U6 Underemployment Rate moved from 7.4% to 7.8%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate moved upward from 62.6% to 62.7%.
Rosie the Riveter: We will get June Factory Orders at 10:00, it is expected to contract by -2.9%.
Forty-eight hours ago, Powell and the FOMC hinted at the potential of a 25 bp cut in the FF rate. Powell stressed incoming data would determine whether a cut would occur. Markets wrapped their arms around the possibility. This morning it all changed, no 25 bp cut but a sure 50 bp cut at the Sept meeting. The July employment report this morning shocked everyone, not a soul would admit they saw it coming. The economy was slowing, consumers were losing confidence, job growth data slipping but Powell and most other Fed officials were talking that the economy was doing ok, employment still strong. By the end of the day today talk of a recession multiplied.
In case you missed it: The unemployment rate thought to be unchanged from June at 4.1% increased to 4.3%. Payrolls (NFP) expected at 180K from 206K (revised lower to 179K increased just 114K. Private jobs in June 136K, the estimate for July 155K, as reported +97K. July average hourly earnings +0.2% against +0.3%, year/year average earnings declined from 3.8% in June (revised from 3.9%) fell to 3.6%. The labor participation rate did increase to 62.7% from 62.6. The unemployment rate rose to the highest level in nearly three years.
When markets get a shock like today emotions become more heightened, I’ve seen it many times. Markets don’t do well initially when hit with unexpected news, takes a few days to get a grip. In this case it will be the same; not that it will go away, just putting it in perspective. The initial reaction today, 50 bps in Sept 25 bp in Nov and another 25 bp in Dec.
Next Week’s Calendar: The data is thin. Monday July ISM services index, PMI services index. Tuesday June trade deficit, $58B 3 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June consumer credit, $42B auction of new 10 year notes. Thursday weekly jobless claims, $25B of new 30 year bonds auction. Nothing on Friday.
Fed officials were on lockdown last week ahead of the FOMC, next week they will be out with new outlooks. It is welcome news for the mortgage industry that will rapidly increase re-finances. It is better to relax a little over the weekend, next week once the shock wanes look for a variety of thoughts. Not predicting but could the July employment data be a one-off event?
Very near term technicals after today are in very over extended levels, the potential of some consolidation is possible on Monday, wouldn’t be surprised to see some retracement.
This week’s changes: The 10 year note -31 bps, the 2 year -49 bps 6.0 30 year FNMA coupon +85 bps. The DJIA -852, NASDAQ -582, S&P -112. Gold this week +$98.00, crude oil -$3.26. The dollar declined, the index down 1.10, Bitcoin down 5,604.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT BUT BOOK SOME PROFITS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.79% -19 bp
5 year note: 3.62% -20 bp
2 year note: 3.89% -27 bp
30 year bond: 4.11% -17 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.88 +37 bp (+12 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.82 +19 bp (+5 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.45 +23 bp (-9 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 146.58 -2.79 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0912 +$0.0119
Dollar Index: 103.22 -1.20
Gold: $2,479.20 -$1.60
Bitcoin: 62,520 -859
Crude Oil: $73.90 -$2.41
DJIA: 39,737.26 -610.71
NASDAQ: 16,776.16 -417.98
S&P 500: 5346.56 -100.12
SOFR Data 08/02: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35049, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36242, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39100, INDEX: 1.15093700
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,339.16 | -35.46 | -1.49% | -7.49% | +9.16% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
81,648.81 | -1,272.08 | -1.53% | -6.67% | +15.30% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,933.91 | -41.84 | -1.41% | -6.96% | +11.06% | 11:15 AM |
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0911 | 0.0120 | +1.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
146.5300 | -2.8300 | -1.89% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2801 | 0.0062 | +0.49% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6511 | 0.0010 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3873 | -0.0001 | -0.01% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8590 | -0.0140 | -1.60% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
19.1792 | 0.3190 | +1.69% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
23.2282 | -0.2288 | -0.98% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.6118 | -0.3050 | -1.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9328 | -0.0546 | -1.37% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
364.5800 | -2.6200 | -0.71% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
85.3387 | -0.2486 | -0.29% | 11:39 AM |
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| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.833 | -3.783 | -3.653 | 7.500 | -3.736 | -3.686 | -3.556 |
| 7.500 | -3.579 | -3.529 | -3.399 | 7.375 | -3.411 | -3.361 | -3.231 |
| 7.375 | -3.249 | -3.199 | -3.069 | 7.250 | -3.030 | -2.980 | -2.850 |
| 7.250 | -2.838 | -2.788 | -2.658 | 7.125 | -3.459 | -3.409 | -3.279 |
| 7.125 | -3.157 | -3.107 | -2.977 | 6.999 | -3.210 | -3.160 | -3.030 |
| 6.999 | -2.866 | -2.816 | -2.686 | 6.875 | -2.826 | -2.776 | -2.646 |
| 6.875 | -2.480 | -2.430 | -2.300 | 6.750 | -2.391 | -2.341 | -2.211 |
| 6.750 | -1.991 | -1.941 | -1.811 | 6.625 | -3.342 | -3.292 | -3.162 |
| 6.625 | -2.579 | -2.529 | -2.399 | 6.500 | -3.024 | -2.974 | -2.844 |
| 6.500 | -2.220 | -2.170 | -2.040 | 6.375 | -2.610 | -2.560 | -2.430 |
| 6.375 | -1.756 | -1.706 | -1.576 | 6.250 | -2.115 | -2.065 | -1.935 |
| 6.250 | -1.199 | -1.149 | -1.019 | 6.125 | -2.540 | -2.490 | -2.360 |
| 6.125 | -1.793 | -1.743 | -1.613 | 5.999 | -2.215 | -2.165 | -2.035 |
| 5.999 | -1.370 | -1.320 | -1.190 | 5.875 | -1.713 | -1.663 | -1.533 |
| 5.875 | -0.755 | -0.705 | -0.575 | 5.750 | -1.170 | -1.120 | -0.990 |
| 5.750 | -0.065 | -0.015 | 0.115 | 5.625 | -1.002 | -0.952 | -0.822 |
| 5.625 | -0.233 | -0.183 | -0.053 | 5.500 | -0.590 | -0.540 | -0.410 |
| 5.500 | 0.352 | 0.402 | 0.532 | 5.375 | -0.091 | -0.041 | 0.089 |
| 5.375 | 1.045 | 1.095 | 1.225 | 5.250 | 0.477 | 0.527 | 0.657 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.750 | -2.842 | -2.792 | -2.662 | 6.500 | -3.088 | -3.038 | -2.908 |
| 6.625 | -2.787 | -2.737 | -2.607 | 6.375 | -2.852 | -2.802 | -2.672 |
| 6.500 | -2.778 | -2.728 | -2.598 | 6.250 | -2.464 | -2.414 | -2.284 |
| 6.375 | -2.530 | -2.480 | -2.350 | 6.125 | -2.384 | -2.334 | -2.204 |
| 6.250 | -2.139 | -2.089 | -1.959 | 6.000 | -2.621 | -2.571 | -2.441 |
| 6.125 | -2.059 | -2.009 | -1.879 | 5.875 | -2.339 | -2.289 | -2.159 |
| 6.000 | -2.220 | -2.170 | -2.040 | 5.750 | -1.933 | -1.883 | -1.753 |
| 5.875 | -1.923 | -1.873 | -1.743 | 5.625 | -1.825 | -1.775 | -1.645 |
| 5.750 | -1.514 | -1.464 | -1.334 | 5.500 | -2.027 | -1.977 | -1.847 |
| 5.625 | -1.406 | -1.356 | -1.226 | 5.375 | -1.700 | -1.650 | -1.520 |
| 5.500 | -1.533 | -1.483 | -1.353 | 5.250 | -1.268 | -1.218 | -1.088 |
| 5.375 | -1.190 | -1.140 | -1.010 | 5.125 | -1.140 | -1.090 | -0.960 |
| 5.250 | -0.755 | -0.705 | -0.575 | 5.000 | -0.964 | -0.914 | -0.784 |
| 5.125 | -0.627 | -0.577 | -0.447 | 4.875 | -0.590 | -0.540 | -0.410 |
| 5.000 | -0.379 | -0.329 | -0.199 | 4.750 | -0.119 | -0.069 | 0.061 |
| 4.875 | 0.012 | 0.062 | 0.192 | 4.625 | 0.057 | 0.107 | 0.237 |
| 4.750 | 0.487 | 0.537 | 0.667 | 4.500 | 0.382 | 0.432 | 0.562 |
| 4.625 | 0.663 | 0.713 | 0.843 | 4.375 | 0.811 | 0.861 | 0.991 |
| 4.500 | 1.028 | 1.078 | 1.208 | 4.250 | 1.301 | 1.351 | 1.481 |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.11% | 1.58% | 7.89% | 30.54% | 40.19% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |