Magazyn Kieszeń (509) 06.29.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 July Coupon is down just -6 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: The headline May PCE was unchanged on a MOM basis which matched market expectations of 0.0%. YOY it was up 2.6% which also matched forecasts. Core (ex food and energy) increased by 0.1% MOM versus estimates of 0.1% but April was revised higher from 0.2% to 0.3%. YOY, it increased by 2.6% versus estimates of 2.6%.

Income and Spending: The spread between incomes and spending by consumers widened with Personal Incomes increasing by 0.5% versus estimates of 0.4% while Personal Spending was up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Rosie the Riveter: The June bell-weather Chicago PMI was better (less worse) than expected, showing manufacturing contraction with sub-50 reading of 47.4 versus estimates of 40.0.

The Consumer: The revised/final UofM June Consumer Sentiment Index moved the needle from the originally reported 65.6 to 68.2, inflation expectations moved down a tenth of a point but still very high.

May inflation released this morning was right on forecasts. The report came at 8:30 am ET; inflation did increase 0.1% month/month and +2.6% year/year although markets should have been anticipating the increases that were lower than in April. The initial reaction pushed the 10 down 3 bps to 4.26%, by 10 am the buying dried up and selling took over. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index added more fuel to selling, the sentiment index increased more than forecasts, but was weaker than May sentiment. By 10 am the gains in treasuries were gone and the rest of the day interest rates increased. Lenders initially priced MBSs +28 bps, by 12 pm lenders repriced lower. Most of the increase in rates today was at he high end of the curve.

Next week’s calendar: Monday June ISM manufacturing index, May construction spending. Tuesday May JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June ADP private jobs, weekly jobless claims, May trade balance, May factory orders, minutes from the last FOMC meeting, bond market closes at 2 pm. Thursday, 4th of July. Friday June employment report, June ISM services sector index. That employment report hits on Friday blows a very long weekend, although few players will show up.

This Week: The 10 year note yield +11 bp, the 2 year note this week -3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week declined 39 bps. The DJIA this week -31, NASDAQ +44, S&P -5. Gold declined $1.00, crude oil increased $0.69. The dollar index increased just 0.10, bitcoin dropped 3,770.

Last Tuesday the 10 year note declined to a key chart resistance level at 4.20%, unable to break through the 10 slowly increased until today when its rates increased 7 bps, short term momentum oscillators held minor improvement until today, now inching into negative outlook. Next week its jobs and employment that will be the headlines.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.40% +11 bp

5 year note: 4.38% +7 bp

2 year note: 4.76% 41 bp

30 year bond: 4.57% +13 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.23 -27 bp (-41 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.73 -19 bp (-29 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.41 -21 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2677 -$0.0006

Dollar/Yen: 160.84 +0.06 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.00709 +$0.0005

Dollar Index: 105.91 +0.01

Gold: $2,333.50 -$3.10

Bitcoin: 60,295 -1048

Crude Oil: $81.37 -$0.37

DJIA: 39,118.86 -45.20

NASDAQ: 17,732.60 -126.08

S&P 500: 5460.48 -22.39

SOFR Data 06/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33643, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35331, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38728, INDEX: 1.14497741

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,561.27	+13.49	+0.53%	+2.21%	+25.24%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	88,613.69	+478.56	+0.54%	+1.86%	+32.87%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,199.35	+16.84	+0.53%	+1.55%	+27.26%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0713	0.0009	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	160.8800	0.1200	+0.07%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2645	0.0006	+0.05%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6670	0.0023	+0.35%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3679	-0.0022	-0.16%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8988	0.0001	+0.01%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	23.3637	-0.0546	-0.23%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.1200	-0.0246	-0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0247	-0.0021	-0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	368.8100	-1.5900	-0.43%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	85.7657	0.2657	+0.31%	11:53 AM

 

 

USD-MXN

18.3183

-0.1220

-0.66%

4:59 PM

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.07% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.07% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.51% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.26% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.02% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.52% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 6/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% +0.00%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.86% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/27   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.05 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.15 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.18% -0.03 0.54 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/12

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.55 -0.39   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.55 -0.39 UMBS 6.0 100.24 -0.30 GNMA 5.5 99.13 -0.41 GNMA 6.0 100.37 -0.24 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3838 +0.0969   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.740 +0.030 5 YR Treasury 4.361 +0.055 7 YR Treasury 4.359 +0.074 10 YR Treasury 4.384 +0.097 30 YR Treasury 4.550 +0.124 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.11%	1.58%	7.89%	30.54%	40.19%	Tracking Tool

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.000	-3.392	-3.342	-3.212	7.875	-2.968	-2.918	-2.788
7.875	-3.054	-3.004	-2.874	7.750	-2.590	-2.540	-2.410
7.750	-2.645	-2.595	-2.465	7.625	-3.025	-2.975	-2.845
7.625	-3.029	-2.979	-2.849	7.500	-2.750	-2.700	-2.570
7.500	-2.761	-2.711	-2.581	7.375	-2.390	-2.340	-2.210
7.375	-2.368	-2.318	-2.188	7.250	-1.999	-1.949	-1.819
7.250	-1.906	-1.856	-1.726	7.125	-1.968	-1.918	-1.788
7.125	-1.860	-1.810	-1.680	6.999	-1.672	-1.622	-1.492
6.999	-1.544	-1.494	-1.364	6.875	-1.249	-1.199	-1.069
6.875	-1.088	-1.038	-0.908	6.750	-0.818	-0.768	-0.638
6.750	-0.540	-0.490	-0.360	6.625	-1.105	-1.055	-0.925
6.625	-0.582	-0.532	-0.402	6.500	-0.750	-0.700	-0.570
6.500	-0.228	-0.178	-0.048	6.375	-0.288	-0.238	-0.108
6.375	0.323	0.373	0.503	6.250	0.189	0.239	0.369
6.250	0.965	1.015	1.145	6.125	0.382	0.432	0.562
6.125	0.949	0.999	1.129	5.999	0.754	0.804	0.934
5.999	1.449	1.499	1.629	5.875	1.236	1.286	1.416
5.875	2.094	2.144	2.274	5.750	1.800	1.850	1.980
5.750	2.865	2.915	3.045	5.625	2.424	2.474	2.604

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.250	-2.537	-2.487	-2.357	7.000	-2.498	-2.448	-2.318
7.125	-2.163	-2.113	-1.983	6.875	-2.319	-2.269	-2.139
7.000	-2.343	-2.293	-2.163	6.750	-1.952	-1.902	-1.772
6.875	-2.154	-2.104	-1.974	6.625	-1.543	-1.493	-1.363
6.750	-1.783	-1.733	-1.603	6.500	-1.949	-1.899	-1.769
6.625	-1.374	-1.324	-1.194	6.375	-1.729	-1.679	-1.549
6.500	-1.642	-1.592	-1.462	6.250	-1.335	-1.285	-1.155
6.375	-1.408	-1.358	-1.228	6.125	-0.898	-0.848	-0.718
6.250	-1.010	-0.960	-0.830	6.000	-1.087	-1.037	-0.907
6.125	-0.573	-0.523	-0.393	5.875	-0.810	-0.760	-0.630
6.000	-0.687	-0.637	-0.507	5.750	-0.396	-0.346	-0.216
5.875	-0.395	-0.345	-0.215	5.625	0.074	0.124	0.254
5.750	0.023	0.073	0.203	5.500	-0.046	0.004	0.134
5.625	0.493	0.543	0.673	5.375	0.276	0.326	0.456
5.500	0.446	0.496	0.626	5.250	0.721	0.771	0.901
5.375	0.785	0.835	0.965	5.125	1.208	1.258	1.388
5.250	1.234	1.284	1.414	5.000	1.386	1.436	1.566
5.125	1.721	1.771	1.901	4.875	1.753	1.803	1.933
5.000	1.969	2.019	2.149	4.750	2.241	2.291	2.421