Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 July Coupon is down just -6 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: The headline May PCE was unchanged on a MOM basis which matched market expectations of 0.0%. YOY it was up 2.6% which also matched forecasts. Core (ex food and energy) increased by 0.1% MOM versus estimates of 0.1% but April was revised higher from 0.2% to 0.3%. YOY, it increased by 2.6% versus estimates of 2.6%.

Income and Spending: The spread between incomes and spending by consumers widened with Personal Incomes increasing by 0.5% versus estimates of 0.4% while Personal Spending was up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Rosie the Riveter: The June bell-weather Chicago PMI was better (less worse) than expected, showing manufacturing contraction with sub-50 reading of 47.4 versus estimates of 40.0.

The Consumer: The revised/final UofM June Consumer Sentiment Index moved the needle from the originally reported 65.6 to 68.2, inflation expectations moved down a tenth of a point but still very high.

May inflation released this morning was right on forecasts. The report came at 8:30 am ET; inflation did increase 0.1% month/month and +2.6% year/year although markets should have been anticipating the increases that were lower than in April. The initial reaction pushed the 10 down 3 bps to 4.26%, by 10 am the buying dried up and selling took over. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index added more fuel to selling, the sentiment index increased more than forecasts, but was weaker than May sentiment. By 10 am the gains in treasuries were gone and the rest of the day interest rates increased. Lenders initially priced MBSs +28 bps, by 12 pm lenders repriced lower. Most of the increase in rates today was at he high end of the curve.

Next week’s calendar: Monday June ISM manufacturing index, May construction spending. Tuesday May JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June ADP private jobs, weekly jobless claims, May trade balance, May factory orders, minutes from the last FOMC meeting, bond market closes at 2 pm. Thursday, 4th of July. Friday June employment report, June ISM services sector index. That employment report hits on Friday blows a very long weekend, although few players will show up.

This Week: The 10 year note yield +11 bp, the 2 year note this week -3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week declined 39 bps. The DJIA this week -31, NASDAQ +44, S&P -5. Gold declined $1.00, crude oil increased $0.69. The dollar index increased just 0.10, bitcoin dropped 3,770.

Last Tuesday the 10 year note declined to a key chart resistance level at 4.20%, unable to break through the 10 slowly increased until today when its rates increased 7 bps, short term momentum oscillators held minor improvement until today, now inching into negative outlook. Next week its jobs and employment that will be the headlines.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.40% +11 bp

5 year note: 4.38% +7 bp

2 year note: 4.76% 41 bp

30 year bond: 4.57% +13 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.23 -27 bp (-41 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.73 -19 bp (-29 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.41 -21 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2677 -$0.0006

Dollar/Yen: 160.84 +0.06 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.00709 +$0.0005

Dollar Index: 105.91 +0.01

Gold: $2,333.50 -$3.10

Bitcoin: 60,295 -1048

Crude Oil: $81.37 -$0.37

DJIA: 39,118.86 -45.20

NASDAQ: 17,732.60 -126.08

S&P 500: 5460.48 -22.39

SOFR Data 06/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33643, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35331, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38728, INDEX: 1.14497741

 

Poland

Name Value Net Change % Change 1 Month 1 Year Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

2,561.27 +13.49 +0.53% +2.21% +25.24% 11:15 AM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

88,613.69 +478.56 +0.54% +1.86% +32.87% 11:15 AM
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

3,199.35 +16.84 +0.53% +1.55% +27.26% 11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency Value Change Net Change Time (EDT)
EUR-USD

 

1.0713 0.0009 +0.08% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

160.8800 0.1200 +0.07% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2645 0.0006 +0.05% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6670 0.0023 +0.35% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.3679 -0.0022 -0.16% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.8988 0.0001 +0.01% 4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

23.3637 -0.0546 -0.23% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

28.1200 -0.0246 -0.09% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.0247 -0.0021 -0.05% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

368.8100 -1.5900 -0.43% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

85.7657 0.2657 +0.31% 11:53 AM

 

 

USD-MXN

 

18.3183 -0.1220 -0.66% 4:59 PM

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate
7.07% +0.02%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 7.07% +0.02 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% 0.00 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.51% +0.02 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.26% 0.00 0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM 7.02% -0.01 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.52% +0.02 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 6/28
15 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.45% +0.00%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.86% -0.01 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.03 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/27

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.05 0.65
15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.15 0.55
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.18% -0.03 0.54
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/12
MBS / Treasuries
UMBS 30YR 5.5
98.55 -0.39

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5 98.55 -0.39
UMBS 6.0 100.24 -0.30
GNMA 5.5 99.13 -0.41
GNMA 6.0 100.37 -0.24
Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST
10 Year US Treasury
4.3838 +0.0969

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.740 +0.030
5 YR Treasury 4.361 +0.055
7 YR Treasury 4.359 +0.074
10 YR Treasury 4.384 +0.097
30 YR Treasury 4.550 +0.124
Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area Last quarter 2 qtrs ago 1 year ago 3 yrs ago 5 yrs ago Custom Period
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL 2.11% 1.58% 7.89% 30.54% 40.19% Tracking Tool

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR    ELITE  16-20 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
8.000 -3.392 -3.342 -3.212 7.875 -2.968 -2.918 -2.788
7.875 -3.054 -3.004 -2.874 7.750 -2.590 -2.540 -2.410
7.750 -2.645 -2.595 -2.465 7.625 -3.025 -2.975 -2.845
7.625 -3.029 -2.979 -2.849 7.500 -2.750 -2.700 -2.570
7.500 -2.761 -2.711 -2.581 7.375 -2.390 -2.340 -2.210
7.375 -2.368 -2.318 -2.188 7.250 -1.999 -1.949 -1.819
7.250 -1.906 -1.856 -1.726 7.125 -1.968 -1.918 -1.788
7.125 -1.860 -1.810 -1.680 6.999 -1.672 -1.622 -1.492
6.999 -1.544 -1.494 -1.364 6.875 -1.249 -1.199 -1.069
6.875 -1.088 -1.038 -0.908 6.750 -0.818 -0.768 -0.638
6.750 -0.540 -0.490 -0.360 6.625 -1.105 -1.055 -0.925
6.625 -0.582 -0.532 -0.402 6.500 -0.750 -0.700 -0.570
6.500 -0.228 -0.178 -0.048 6.375 -0.288 -0.238 -0.108
6.375 0.323 0.373 0.503 6.250 0.189 0.239 0.369
6.250 0.965 1.015 1.145 6.125 0.382 0.432 0.562
6.125 0.949 0.999 1.129 5.999 0.754 0.804 0.934
5.999 1.449 1.499 1.629 5.875 1.236 1.286 1.416
5.875 2.094 2.144 2.274 5.750 1.800 1.850 1.980
5.750 2.865 2.915 3.045 5.625 2.424 2.474 2.604
 

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR    ELITE  8-10 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.250 -2.537 -2.487 -2.357 7.000 -2.498 -2.448 -2.318
7.125 -2.163 -2.113 -1.983 6.875 -2.319 -2.269 -2.139
7.000 -2.343 -2.293 -2.163 6.750 -1.952 -1.902 -1.772
6.875 -2.154 -2.104 -1.974 6.625 -1.543 -1.493 -1.363
6.750 -1.783 -1.733 -1.603 6.500 -1.949 -1.899 -1.769
6.625 -1.374 -1.324 -1.194 6.375 -1.729 -1.679 -1.549
6.500 -1.642 -1.592 -1.462 6.250 -1.335 -1.285 -1.155
6.375 -1.408 -1.358 -1.228 6.125 -0.898 -0.848 -0.718
6.250 -1.010 -0.960 -0.830 6.000 -1.087 -1.037 -0.907
6.125 -0.573 -0.523 -0.393 5.875 -0.810 -0.760 -0.630
6.000 -0.687 -0.637 -0.507 5.750 -0.396 -0.346 -0.216
5.875 -0.395 -0.345 -0.215 5.625 0.074 0.124 0.254
5.750 0.023 0.073 0.203 5.500 -0.046 0.004 0.134
5.625 0.493 0.543 0.673 5.375 0.276 0.326 0.456
5.500 0.446 0.496 0.626 5.250 0.721 0.771 0.901
5.375 0.785 0.835 0.965 5.125 1.208 1.258 1.388
5.250 1.234 1.284 1.414 5.000 1.386 1.436 1.566
5.125 1.721 1.771 1.901 4.875 1.753 1.803 1.933
5.000 1.969 2.019 2.149 4.750 2.241 2.291 2.421