Magazyn Kieszeń (507) 06.01.2024

Market Wrap-up

Inflation Nation: The much anticipated April PCE data was in line with expectations. Headline PCE MOM gain of 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY gain of 2.7% versus estimates of 2.7%. The Core (ex food and energy) PCE increased by 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY it increased by 2.8% versus estimates of 2.8%.

Incomes and Spending: Personal Incomes matched expectations in April, up 0.3%. However Personal Spending was a slight miss downward at 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Rosie the Riveter: Yikes, the May Chicago PMI continues to be in a freefall. It contracted down to a 35.4 reading which was even worse than April’s 37.9 level.

 

April inflation generally as expected, inflation on the core expected at +0.2% and reported +0.2% but down month/month from March at +0.3%; year/year +2.8% as thought and matched March’s year/year inflation. Inflation still at 2.8% with the Fed standing firm that it has to fall to 2.0%. Most comments we heard today were inflation not likely to get to 2.0% this year, but confidence building inflation isn’t likely to increase from the present level. The core month/month the smallest increase since last December. April personal spending softened, driven by high rates, credit card debit increasing and debt delinquencies increasing.

The initial reaction to PCE dropped the 10 year note to 4.48% -7 bps and at 9:30 am MBS price +18 bp, the 10 inched up a little this afternoon to end at 4.50% and MBS prices declined to +14 bps on the day,(-4 bp from 9:30). The 10 year note yield declined to its key 40-day average where it found resistance. Next week’s economic calendar has a few key releases, not withstanding the employment report, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs and May ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Today’s May Chicago purchasing mgrs. index declined to the lowest, just 3 points above the pandemic low of 32.3.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday S&P global manufacturing index, May ISM manufacturing index, April construction spending. Tuesday April factory orders, April JOLTS job openings. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, May ADP private jobs, S&P global services index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs, April US trade balance. Friday May employment data, April consumer credit.

This Week’s changes: The 10 year note this week increased 3 bps, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon declined 3 bps, the 2 year note declined 8 bps. The DJIA -383, NASDAQ -186, S&P -28. Crude oil declined $0.63, Gold +$4.00. US dollar index -0.04, bitcoin declined 1.270.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.50% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.51% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.88% -5 bp

30 year bond: 4.65% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.12 +14 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.64 +11 bp (-3 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.20 +23 bp ( -2 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2042 unch

Dollar/Yen: 157.31 +0.49 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0848 +$0.0014

Dollar Index: 104.67 -0.05

Gold: $2,342.50 -$24.00

Bitcoin: 67,713 -922

Crude Oil: $77.09 -$0.82

DJIA: 38,686.32 +574.84

NASDAQ: 16,735.02 -2.06

S&P 500: 5277.51 +42.03

SOFR Data 05/31: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32433, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34958, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38857, INDEX: 1.14024578

 

 

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,485.53	+21.55	+0.87%	+0.37%	+27.70%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	86,315.25	+618.22	+0.72%	+2.06%	+35.25%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,124.18	+23.40	+0.75%	+1.75%	+30.68%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0848	0.0016	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.3100	0.4900	+0.31%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2742	0.0010	+0.08%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6653	0.0020	+0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3628	-0.0053	-0.39%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9023	-0.0010	-0.11%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN USDMXN

17.0119

-0.0091

-0.05%

4:59 PM

 

 

 

USD-CZK	22.7596	-0.0763	-0.33%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.7704	-0.0416	-0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9394	-0.0142	-0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	359.0300	-0.5000	-0.14%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	90.3800	-0.0313	-0.03%	4:33 PM

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.17% -0.12%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.17% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.70% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.75% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.45% -0.07 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.33% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.77% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/31 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.70% -0.06%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.03% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.36% +0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/30   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.05% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.66% +0.24 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.22% +0.04 0.43 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/29

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.08 +0.08   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.08 +0.08 UMBS 6.5 101.65 +0.10 GNMA 6.0 100.62 +0.09 GNMA 6.5 101.45 +0.02 Pricing as of: 5/31 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5055 -0.0465   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.878 -0.047 5 YR Treasury 4.511 -0.056 7 YR Treasury 4.514 -0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.506 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.653 -0.024 Pricing as of: 5/31 5:31PM EST

 

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.250	-3.771	-3.721	-3.591	8.000	-3.554	-3.504	-3.374
8.125	-3.834	-3.784	-3.654	7.875	-3.223	-3.173	-3.043
8.000	-3.588	-3.538	-3.408	7.750	-2.826	-2.776	-2.646
7.875	-3.242	-3.192	-3.062	7.625	-3.061	-3.011	-2.881
7.750	-2.810	-2.760	-2.630	7.500	-2.760	-2.710	-2.580
7.625	-3.022	-2.972	-2.842	7.375	-2.392	-2.342	-2.212
7.500	-2.732	-2.682	-2.552	7.250	-1.979	-1.929	-1.799
7.375	-2.323	-2.273	-2.143	7.125	-2.065	-2.015	-1.885
7.250	-1.830	-1.780	-1.650	6.999	-1.779	-1.729	-1.599
7.125	-1.941	-1.891	-1.761	6.875	-1.317	-1.267	-1.137
6.999	-1.593	-1.543	-1.413	6.750	-0.851	-0.801	-0.671
6.875	-1.098	-1.048	-0.918	6.625	-1.186	-1.136	-1.006
6.750	-0.529	-0.479	-0.349	6.500	-0.824	-0.774	-0.644
6.625	-0.681	-0.631	-0.501	6.375	-0.334	-0.284	-0.154
6.500	-0.247	-0.197	-0.067	6.250	0.179	0.229	0.359
6.375	0.367	0.417	0.547	6.125	0.491	0.541	0.671
6.250	1.037	1.087	1.217	5.999	0.879	0.929	1.059
6.125	1.133	1.183	1.313	5.875	1.411	1.461	1.591
5.999	1.709	1.759	1.889	5.750	1.975	2.025	2.155

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.375	-2.942	-2.892	-2.762	7.125	-2.160	-2.110	-1.980
7.250	-2.607	-2.557	-2.427	7.000	-2.503	-2.453	-2.323
7.125	-2.210	-2.160	-2.030	6.875	-2.296	-2.246	-2.116
7.000	-2.351	-2.301	-2.171	6.750	-1.918	-1.868	-1.738
6.875	-2.131	-2.081	-1.951	6.625	-1.500	-1.450	-1.320
6.750	-1.749	-1.699	-1.569	6.500	-1.949	-1.899	-1.769
6.625	-1.331	-1.281	-1.151	6.375	-1.703	-1.653	-1.523
6.500	-1.644	-1.594	-1.464	6.250	-1.303	-1.253	-1.123
6.375	-1.382	-1.332	-1.202	6.125	-0.845	-0.795	-0.665
6.250	-0.978	-0.928	-0.798	6.000	-1.046	-0.996	-0.866
6.125	-0.520	-0.470	-0.340	5.875	-0.746	-0.696	-0.566
6.000	-0.649	-0.599	-0.469	5.750	-0.313	-0.263	-0.133
5.875	-0.332	-0.282	-0.152	5.625	0.159	0.209	0.339
5.750	0.106	0.156	0.286	5.500	0.159	0.209	0.339
5.625	0.578	0.628	0.758	5.375	0.510	0.560	0.690
5.500	0.650	0.700	0.830	5.250	0.962	1.012	1.142
5.375	1.018	1.068	1.198	5.125	1.461	1.511	1.641
5.250	1.475	1.525	1.655	5.000	1.659	1.709	1.839
5.125	1.974	2.024	2.154	4.875	2.048	2.098	2.228