Magazyn Kieszeń (505) 05.18.2024

Market Wrap-up

Crystal Ball: The April Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) contracted again with a reading of -0.6% versus estimates of -0.3%. But this data set has been in negative territory for quite awhile despite positive GDP results.

This week was a long one with a lot of ground covered. Interest rates declined on better inflation news. The housing market reports were not so good, the NAHB housing market index the lowest in four months, housing starts and permits also less than estimates and to the lows of December 2022. Weekly jobless claims at 22K were down from 231K the prior week that were the highest this year.

Next Week the calendar is without direct inflation measurements. It is two weeks before the FOMC meeting, Fed officials are likely to have a lot of comments, most of them though will sound the same; too early to think about rate cuts until more concrete evidence inflation is on a path lower. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office released this week shows that inflation may have had less of an impact on households’ bottom lines than months of sticker shock on everything from Big Macs to daycare might suggest. By CBO’s estimate, aggregate income grew more than prices did between 2019 and 2023,” the report states.

Next Week’s calendar: There are no data points on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday treasury will auction $16B of 20 year bonds, weekly MBA mortgage applications, April existing home sales, FOMC minutes from the May 1st meeting. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May S%P global services and manufacturing indexes, April new home sales. Friday April durable goods orders, May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (consumer sentiment is on a downward path as is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index).

This Week: 10 year note yield this week declined 8 bps, the 2 year note -3 bps. The DJIA MBS 6.0 coupon +20 bps, 6.5 coupon +24 bps. Gold increased $52.00. Crude oil increased$0.64. The dollar index declined 0.85. Bitcoin increased 6,372.

MBS prices today generally flat, but lower than at 9:30 am, the 10 year note yield increased 4 bps. Technical indicators mixed, the 10 found resistance at its 200-day moving average but the Relative Strength index is still positive.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.43% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.45% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.84% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.56% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.36 -11 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.78 -9 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.52 -2 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2243 +$0.0055

Dollar/Yen: 155.64 +0.23 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0877 +$0.0009

Dollar Index: 104.44 -0.02

Gold: $2,421.60 +$36.70

Bitcoin: 67,036 +1867

Crude Oil: $80.02 +$0.79

DJIA: 40,0004.35 +134.97 (media going postal)

NASDAQ: 16,685.97 -12.35

S&P 500: 5303.30 +6.20

SOFR Data 05/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32340, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34801, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38943, INDEX: 1.13789115

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,574.96	+12.13	+0.47%	+5.86%	+33.21%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	88,734.63	+350.08	+0.40%	+7.70%	+39.70%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,228.76	+12.63	+0.39%	+7.13%	+35.77%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0869	0.0002	+0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	155.6500	0.2600	+0.17%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2701	0.0031	+0.24%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6693	0.0014	+0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3612	-0.0006	-0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9091	0.0029	+0.32%	4:5

 

USD-MXN		16.6106	-0.0783		-0.47%		4:59 PM
USD-CZK	22.7166			-0.0224		-0.10%		4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.7167			-0.0056		-0.02%		4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9198			0.0007		+0.02%		4:59 PM
USD-HUF	356.2000			0.2000		+0.06%		4:59 PM
USD-RUB	90.9955			0.1308		+0.14%		11:01 AM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.000	-3.516	-3.466	-3.336	7.875	-3.198	-3.148	-3.018
7.875	-3.188	-3.138	-3.008	7.750	-2.811	-2.761	-2.631
7.750	-2.772	-2.722	-2.592	7.625	-3.216	-3.166	-3.036
7.625	-3.163	-3.113	-2.983	7.500	-2.894	-2.844	-2.714
7.500	-2.852	-2.802	-2.672	7.375	-2.541	-2.491	-2.361
7.375	-2.467	-2.417	-2.287	7.250	-2.140	-2.090	-1.960
7.250	-1.993	-1.943	-1.813	7.125	-2.379	-2.329	-2.199
7.125	-2.223	-2.173	-2.043	6.999	-2.074	-2.024	-1.894
6.999	-1.853	-1.803	-1.673	6.875	-1.636	-1.586	-1.456
6.875	-1.389	-1.339	-1.209	6.750	-1.160	-1.110	-0.980
6.750	-0.828	-0.778	-0.648	6.625	-1.590	-1.540	-1.410
6.625	-1.108	-1.058	-0.928	6.500	-1.208	-1.158	-1.028
6.500	-0.684	-0.634	-0.504	6.375	-0.732	-0.682	-0.552
6.375	-0.092	-0.042	0.088	6.250	-0.210	-0.160	-0.030
6.250	0.570	0.620	0.750	6.125	-0.010	0.040	0.170
6.125	0.492	0.542	0.672	5.999	0.397	0.447	0.577
5.999	1.059	1.109	1.239	5.875	0.925	0.975	1.105
5.875	1.765	1.815	1.945	5.750	1.498	1.548	1.678
5.750	2.526	2.576	2.706	5.625	2.125	2.175	2.305

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-2.104	-2.054	-1.924	7.000	-2.512	-2.462	-2.332
7.000	-2.361	-2.311	-2.181	6.875	-2.275	-2.225	-2.095
6.875	-2.110	-2.060	-1.930	6.750	-1.904	-1.854	-1.724
6.750	-1.735	-1.685	-1.555	6.625	-1.495	-1.445	-1.315
6.625	-1.326	-1.276	-1.146	6.500	-2.111	-2.061	-1.931
6.500	-1.838	-1.788	-1.658	6.375	-1.845	-1.795	-1.665
6.375	-1.555	-1.505	-1.375	6.250	-1.442	-1.392	-1.262
6.250	-1.148	-1.098	-0.968	6.125	-1.004	-0.954	-0.824
6.125	-0.710	-0.660	-0.530	6.000	-1.371	-1.321	-1.191
6.000	-0.974	-0.924	-0.794	5.875	-1.051	-1.001	-0.871
5.875	-0.637	-0.587	-0.457	5.750	-0.625	-0.575	-0.445
5.750	-0.206	-0.156	-0.026	5.625	-0.153	-0.103	0.027
5.625	0.266	0.316	0.446	5.500	-0.320	-0.270	-0.140
5.500	0.170	0.220	0.350	5.375	0.036	0.086	0.216
5.375	0.543	0.593	0.723	5.250	0.492	0.542	0.672
5.250	1.005	1.055	1.185	5.125	0.985	1.035	1.165
5.125	1.498	1.548	1.678	5.000	1.105	1.155	1.285
5.000	1.687	1.737	1.867	4.875	1.504	1.554	1.684
4.875	2.105	2.155	2.285	4.750	1.995	2.045	2.175

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.09% +0.07%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.56% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.62% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.35% +0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.30% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.64% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/17 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.56% +0.03%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/16   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.08% -0.10 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.61% +0.01 0.65 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.22% -0.09 0.58 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/15

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.41 -0.13   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.41 -0.13 UMBS 6.5 101.80 -0.05 GNMA 6.0 100.77 +0.03 GNMA 6.5 101.60 +0.03 Pricing as of: 5/17 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4188 +0.0419   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.825 +0.027 5 YR Treasury 4.444 +0.048 7 YR Treasury 4.429 +0.046 10 YR Treasury 4.419 +0.042 30 YR Treasury 4.559 +0.053 Pricing as of: 5/17 5:31PM EST

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL