Magazyn Kieszeń (504) 05.11.2024

Market Wrap-up

Consumer Sentiment: The May Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was significantly lower than expected… dropping to 67.4 versus estimates of 10 points higher than that. But the bond market focused on the Inflation Expectations component which shot up from 3.2% to 3.5%.

The Talking Fed: Hawkish: Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan said that it is too early for the Fed to even consider lowering rates. Hawkish: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she does not expect it will be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates at all in 2024. Dovish: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that there is not much evidence that inflation is stuck. The bond market ignored him (for obvious reasons) and focused on the Hawkish comments.

Interest rates increased today; MBS prices declined. All about the inflation data next week. On the week, the 10 year note unchanged and MBS prices down 6 bps from last Friday.

There wasn’t much meat on the bone this week, the only two data points, weekly claims, and today’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Both reports sent messages that job growth is weakening, and the consumer is losing momentum. All interest rate markets need now is a decline in inflation next Tuesday with April PPI and Wednesday on April CPI. If inflation increases interest rates will increase, the 10 year yield has potential of climbing to 4.60% and MBS prices down 50 bps if inflation increases. If inflation is flat or lower the 10 yield will decline to 4.38% and MBS prices will increase 50 bps.

Most Fed officials this week were continuing to echo Powell, that rate cuts won’t happen until there is more evidence inflation has a pattern of declining. The current consensus in markets is no rate cuts until late this year. That view subject to incoming data.

At 2 pm April Treasury budget was +$209.5B with forecasts at +$236.0B after March was -$236.5B. The keys from the report is that individual tax receipts were higher than the prior year, which is a reflection of the stronger economy in 2023. Separately, higher rates accompanied the stronger economy, which in turn drove higher outlays for net interest costs.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday nothing. Tuesday April PPI, NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, April CPI, April retail sales, NY Empire State manufacturing index, March business inventories, May NAHB housing market index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, April housing starts and permits, April industrial production and capacity utilization. Friday April leading economic indicators (a report that deserves to be eliminated).

This week: The 10 year not this week was unchanged from last Friday, the 2 year note increased 5 bps. 6.0 FNMA coupon this week -1 bp from last Friday, the 6.5 coupon -6 bps. The DJIA837, NASDAQ +185, S&P +95. Gold increased $62.00, crude oil increased $0.35. The dollar index increased 0.20, bitcoin declined 1.208.

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.51% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.52% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.87% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.65% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.10 -18 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.54 -15 bp (-6 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 2.5: 99.14 -11 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2270 +$0.0071

Dollar/Yen: 155.80 +0.32 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0774 -$0.0009

Dollar Index: 105.29 +0.07

Gold: $2,370.30 +$30.00

Bitcoin: 60,664 -1792

Crude Oil: $78.38 -$0.88

DJIA: 39,512.84 +125.08

NASDAQ: 16,340.87 -5.40

S&P 500: 5222.68 +8.60

SOFR Data 05/10: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32374, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34778, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38983, INDEX: 1.13671705

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,523.05	-42.59	-1.66%	+0.91%	+30.60%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	86,508.69	-918.85	-1.05%	+2.49%	+36.08%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,159.28	-37.67	-1.18%	+2.18%	+32.53%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0771	-0.0011	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	155.7800	0.3000	+0.19%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2525	0.0001	+0.01%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6604	-0.0016	-0.24%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3672	-0.0005	-0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9065	0.0005	+0.06%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

16.7787

-0.0060

-0.04%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.1390	0.0181	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.9707	0.0301	+0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9957	0.0188	+0.47%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	360.0500	0.1500	+0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	92.6938	0.1325	+0.14%	12:07 PM

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.16% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.16%	+0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.64%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.62%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.40%	+0.01	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	7.33%	-0.01	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.64%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/10

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.64% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	7.09%	-0.13	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.38%	-0.09	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/9

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.24%	+0.11	0.66
15 Yr. Fixed	6.75%	+0.11	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.45%	+0.05	0.56
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/24

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0

100.11 -0.18

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0	100.11	-0.18
UMBS 6.5	101.56	-0.14
GNMA 6.0	101.02	-0.13
GNMA 6.5	101.62	-0.08
Pricing as of: 5/10 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.4983 +0.0422

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.869	+0.051
5 YR Treasury	4.515	+0.044
7 YR Treasury	4.504	+0.042
10 YR Treasury	4.498	+0.042
30 YR Treasury	4.640	+0.031
Pricing as of: 5/10 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.250

-3.495

-3.445

-3.315

8.125

-3.674

-3.624

-3.494

8.125

-3.666

-3.616

-3.486

7.999

-3.397

-3.347

-3.217

7.999

-3.390

-3.340

-3.210

7.875

-3.074

-3.024

-2.894

7.875

-3.063

-3.013

-2.883

7.750

-2.686

-2.636

-2.506

7.750

-2.647

-2.597

-2.467

7.625

-3.016

-2.966

-2.836

7.625

-2.955

-2.905

-2.775

7.500

-2.688

-2.638

-2.508

7.500

-2.645

-2.595

-2.465

7.375

-2.334

-2.284

-2.154

7.375

-2.260

-2.210

-2.080

7.250

-1.933

-1.883

-1.753

7.250

-1.785

-1.735

-1.605

7.125

-2.050

-2.000

-1.870

7.125

-1.885

-1.835

-1.705

6.999

-1.750

-1.700

-1.570

6.999

-1.533

-1.483

-1.353

6.875

-1.298

-1.248

-1.118

6.875

-1.050

-1.000

-0.870

6.750

-0.822

-0.772

-0.642

6.750

-0.489

-0.439

-0.309

6.625

-1.140

-1.090

-0.960

6.625

-0.654

-0.604

-0.474

6.500

-0.753

-0.703

-0.573

6.500

-0.236

-0.186

-0.056

6.375

-0.272

-0.222

-0.092

6.375

0.363

0.413

0.543

6.250

0.247

0.297

0.427

6.250

1.026

1.076

1.206

6.125

0.555

0.605

0.735

6.125

1.062

1.112

1.242

6.000

0.974

1.024

1.154

6.000

1.617

1.667

1.797

5.875

1.496

1.546

1.676

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.375	-2.645	-2.595	-2.465	7.125	-1.879	-1.829	-1.699
7.250	-2.315	-2.265	-2.135	7.000	-2.399	-2.349	-2.219
7.125	-1.929	-1.879	-1.749	6.875	-2.162	-2.112	-1.982
7.000	-2.249	-2.199	-2.069	6.750	-1.793	-1.743	-1.613
6.875	-1.998	-1.948	-1.818	6.625	-1.385	-1.335	-1.205
6.750	-1.624	-1.574	-1.444	6.500	-1.939	-1.889	-1.759
6.625	-1.216	-1.166	-1.036	6.375	-1.661	-1.611	-1.481
6.500	-1.666	-1.616	-1.486	6.250	-1.263	-1.213	-1.083
6.375	-1.372	-1.322	-1.192	6.125	-0.825	-0.775	-0.645
6.250	-0.969	-0.919	-0.789	6.000	-1.062	-1.012	-0.882
6.125	-0.531	-0.481	-0.351	5.875	-0.738	-0.688	-0.558
6.000	-0.667	-0.617	-0.487	5.750	-0.320	-0.270	-0.140
5.875	-0.324	-0.274	-0.144	5.625	0.153	0.203	0.333
5.750	0.099	0.149	0.279	5.500	0.063	0.113	0.243
5.625	0.572	0.622	0.752	5.375	0.422	0.472	0.602
5.500	0.552	0.602	0.732	5.250	0.880	0.930	1.060
5.375	0.930	0.980	1.110	5.125	1.373	1.423	1.553
5.250	1.393	1.443	1.573	5.000	1.585	1.635	1.765
5.125	1.886	1.936	2.066	4.875	1.983	2.033	2.163