Market Wrap-up

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Today’s Jobs data was weaker than expected. You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

April Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was 175K versus estimates of 243K.

March NFP was revised higher from 303K to 315K.

February NFP was revised lower from 270K to 240K.

The rolling 3 month average is now 243K.

Wages:

The national average hourly earnings rate increased by 7 cents to $34.75.

Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.9% on a YOY basis versus estimates of 4.0%.

Employment:

The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8%, the market was expecting 3.8%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate ticked up from 7.3% to 7.4%.

The Labor Force Participation Rate remained 62.7% which was expected.

Service Please: The April ISM Services PMI dipped into contractionary territory by dropping to 49.4 versus estimates of 52.0, Prices Paid rose from 53.4 to 59.2 and the Employment Index dropped from 48.5 to 45.9.

 

There is a party happening at the Federal Reserve after this morning’s April jobs data. Jobs slowed; average hourly earnings declined. The economy slowed in April and optimism for a rate cut in September picked up momentum. The Fed has recently made a point that it still wants inflation at 2.0%, the data this morning is just one baby step forward, it isn’t a trend, recent inflation data has crept slightly higher. Interest rates declined today; stock indexes increased. Not wanting to put a damper on the positive news this morning, just reminding it is just the first of what we think will be continuing positive news. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the headline payrolls gain “very solid.”

The initial reaction sent the 10 year note down 13 bps to 4.45%, after traders settled down the note settled at 4.51% -8 bps. MBS prices increased 78 bps before settling +36 bps. Another plus today, the April ISM services sector index dropped below the 50 pivot to 49.4, the first index reading below 50 since December 2022.

The economic calendar next week doesn’t have much, Tuesday March consumer credit. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday May mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, April Treasury budget. Treasury will auction a total of $125b of notes and bonds next week, Tuesday $58B of 3 year note, Wednesday $42B of new 10 year notes, Thursday $25B of new 30s. The lack of key data points next week should support rate markets, recent treasury auctions have met with meager demand, the 10 year auction will be a key next week.

This week: The 10 year note this week -17 bps, the 2 year note -18 bps. FNMA 6.0 coupon +95 bps. The DJIA this week +436, NASDAQ +228, S&P +27. Gold declined $41.00, crude oil fell $5.26 (another positive for inflation outlooks) The dollar weakened this week, the Japanese yen, after months of increasing fell on news the Japanese government intervened in currency markets to stop the yen from worsening more, the dollar index declined 0.99 to 105.01, a major move. Bitcoin got tagged -1,939 this week.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.51% -7 bp

5 year note: 4.49% -8 bp

2 year note: 4.82% -6 bp

30 year bond: 4.67% -6 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.11 +35 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.60 +20 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.08 +40 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

Yuan $7.2373 -$0.0023

Yen 152.88 -0.74 yen

Euro $1.0768

Dollar Index: 105.01 -0.29

Gold: $2,308.20 -$1.40

Bitcoin: 61,872 -1,939

Crude Oil: $78.03 -$0.92

DJIA: 38,675.68 +450.02

NASDAQ: 16,156.33 +315.37

S&P 500: 5127.79 +63.59

SOFR Data 05/03: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32541, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34800, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39023, INDEX: 1.13554415

 

Poland

Name Value Net Change % Change 1 Month 1 Year Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

2,470.52 -5.77 -0.23% +1.51% +28.72% 5/2/2024
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

84,393.75 -175.90 -0.21% +1.85% +34.30% 5/2/2024
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

3,063.04 -7.40 -0.24% +1.35% +29.79% 5/2/2024

WALUTY

Currency Value Change Net Change Time (EDT)
EUR-USD

 

1.0764 0.0039 +0.36% 4:53 PM
USD-JPY

 

152.8800 -0.7600 -0.49% 4:53 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2550 0.0016 +0.13% 4:52 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6610 0.0045 +0.69% 4:53 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.3686 0.0012 +0.09% 4:53 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.9050 -0.0057 -0.63% 4:53 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

23.2821 0.0129 +0.06% 4:54 PM
USD-SKK

 

27.9883 -0.1012 -0.36% 4:54 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.0166 -0.0235 -0.58% 4:54 PM
USD-HUF

 

361.9700 -1.1200 -0.31% 4:54 PM
USD-RUB

 

91.4750 -1.7034 -1.83% 11:02 AM

 

USD-MXN

 

16.9821 -0.0021 -0.01% 4:48 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR    ELITE  16-20 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.999 -3.445 -3.395 -3.265 7.999 -3.418 -3.368 -3.238
7.875 -3.100 -3.050 -2.920 7.875 -3.082 -3.032 -2.902
7.750 -2.682 -2.632 -2.502 7.750 -2.699 -2.649 -2.519
7.625 -2.949 -2.899 -2.769 7.625 -2.967 -2.917 -2.787
7.500 -2.637 -2.587 -2.457 7.500 -2.641 -2.591 -2.461
7.375 -2.231 -2.181 -2.051 7.375 -2.274 -2.224 -2.094
7.250 -1.743 -1.693 -1.563 7.250 -1.866 -1.816 -1.686
7.125 -1.898 -1.848 -1.718 7.125 -2.007 -1.957 -1.827
6.999 -1.525 -1.475 -1.345 6.999 -1.690 -1.640 -1.510
6.875 -1.032 -0.982 -0.852 6.875 -1.234 -1.184 -1.054
6.750 -0.457 -0.407 -0.277 6.750 -0.759 -0.709 -0.579
6.625 -0.592 -0.542 -0.412 6.625 -1.012 -0.962 -0.832
6.500 -0.126 -0.076 0.054 6.500 -0.609 -0.559 -0.429
6.375 0.472 0.522 0.652 6.375 -0.133 -0.083 0.047
6.250 1.158 1.208 1.338 6.250 0.395 0.445 0.575
6.125 1.175 1.225 1.355 6.125 0.692 0.742 0.872
6.000 1.762 1.812 1.942 6.000 1.116 1.166 1.296
5.875 2.490 2.540 2.670 5.875 1.642 1.692 1.822
5.750 3.251 3.301 3.431 5.750 2.213 2.263 2.393

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR    ELITE  8-10 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.125 -2.470 -2.420 -2.290 7.000 -2.764 -2.714 -2.584
7.000 -2.615 -2.565 -2.435 6.875 -2.527 -2.477 -2.347
6.875 -2.362 -2.312 -2.182 6.750 -2.155 -2.105 -1.975
6.750 -1.986 -1.936 -1.806 6.625 -1.741 -1.691 -1.561
6.625 -1.572 -1.522 -1.392 6.500 -2.093 -2.043 -1.913
6.500 -1.820 -1.770 -1.640 6.375 -1.814 -1.764 -1.634
6.375 -1.524 -1.474 -1.344 6.250 -1.412 -1.362 -1.232
6.250 -1.118 -1.068 -0.938 6.125 -0.968 -0.918 -0.788
6.125 -0.674 -0.624 -0.494 6.000 -1.146 -1.096 -0.966
6.000 -0.751 -0.701 -0.571 5.875 -0.822 -0.772 -0.642
5.875 -0.408 -0.358 -0.228 5.750 -0.399 -0.349 -0.219
5.750 0.020 0.070 0.200 5.625 0.079 0.129 0.259
5.625 0.498 0.548 0.678 5.500 -0.076 -0.026 0.104
5.500 0.413 0.463 0.593 5.375 0.284 0.334 0.464
5.375 0.792 0.842 0.972 5.250 0.747 0.797 0.927
5.250 1.260 1.310 1.440 5.125 1.245 1.295 1.425
5.125 1.758 1.808 1.938 5.000 1.498 1.548 1.678
5.000 2.079 2.129 2.259 4.875 1.897 1.947 2.077
4.875 2.497 2.547 2.677 4.750 2.387 2.437 2.567

 

Mortgage Rates

 

30 Yr. Fixed Rate
7.28% -0.09%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 7.28% -0.09 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% -0.07 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.70% -0.12 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.48% -0.07 0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM 7.35% -0.07 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.72% -0.12 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/3

 

 

15 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.75% -0.07%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 7.22% +0.05 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.47% +0.03 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/2

 

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 7.24% +0.11 0.66
15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.11 0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.45% +0.05 0.56
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/24
MBS / Treasuries

 

UMBS 30YR 6.0
100.14 +0.36

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0 100.13 +0.35
UMBS 6.5 101.62 +0.20
GNMA 6.0 101.05 +0.31
GNMA 6.5 101.80 +0.17
Pricing as of: 5/3 4:15PM EST

 

 

10 Year US Treasury
4.5016 -0.0779

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.815 -0.059
5 YR Treasury 4.490 -0.083
7 YR Treasury 4.495 -0.083
10 YR Treasury 4.504 -0.076
30 YR Treasury 4.664 -0.065
Pricing as of: 5/3 4:15PM EST

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area Last quarter 2 qtrs ago 1 year ago 3 yrs ago 5 yrs ago Custom Period See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL -0.40% 2.11% 6.96% 29.44% 38.84% Tracking Tool Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL