Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Today’s Jobs data was weaker than expected. You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
April Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was 175K versus estimates of 243K.
March NFP was revised higher from 303K to 315K.
February NFP was revised lower from 270K to 240K.
The rolling 3 month average is now 243K.
Wages:
The national average hourly earnings rate increased by 7 cents to $34.75.
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.9% on a YOY basis versus estimates of 4.0%.
Employment:
The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8%, the market was expecting 3.8%.
The U6 Underemployment Rate ticked up from 7.3% to 7.4%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate remained 62.7% which was expected.
Service Please: The April ISM Services PMI dipped into contractionary territory by dropping to 49.4 versus estimates of 52.0, Prices Paid rose from 53.4 to 59.2 and the Employment Index dropped from 48.5 to 45.9.
There is a party happening at the Federal Reserve after this morning’s April jobs data. Jobs slowed; average hourly earnings declined. The economy slowed in April and optimism for a rate cut in September picked up momentum. The Fed has recently made a point that it still wants inflation at 2.0%, the data this morning is just one baby step forward, it isn’t a trend, recent inflation data has crept slightly higher. Interest rates declined today; stock indexes increased. Not wanting to put a damper on the positive news this morning, just reminding it is just the first of what we think will be continuing positive news. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the headline payrolls gain “very solid.”
The initial reaction sent the 10 year note down 13 bps to 4.45%, after traders settled down the note settled at 4.51% -8 bps. MBS prices increased 78 bps before settling +36 bps. Another plus today, the April ISM services sector index dropped below the 50 pivot to 49.4, the first index reading below 50 since December 2022.
The economic calendar next week doesn’t have much, Tuesday March consumer credit. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday May mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, April Treasury budget. Treasury will auction a total of $125b of notes and bonds next week, Tuesday $58B of 3 year note, Wednesday $42B of new 10 year notes, Thursday $25B of new 30s. The lack of key data points next week should support rate markets, recent treasury auctions have met with meager demand, the 10 year auction will be a key next week.
This week: The 10 year note this week -17 bps, the 2 year note -18 bps. FNMA 6.0 coupon +95 bps. The DJIA this week +436, NASDAQ +228, S&P +27. Gold declined $41.00, crude oil fell $5.26 (another positive for inflation outlooks) The dollar weakened this week, the Japanese yen, after months of increasing fell on news the Japanese government intervened in currency markets to stop the yen from worsening more, the dollar index declined 0.99 to 105.01, a major move. Bitcoin got tagged -1,939 this week.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.51% -7 bp
5 year note: 4.49% -8 bp
2 year note: 4.82% -6 bp
30 year bond: 4.67% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.11 +35 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.60 +20 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.08 +40 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)
Yuan $7.2373 -$0.0023
Yen 152.88 -0.74 yen
Euro $1.0768
Dollar Index: 105.01 -0.29
Gold: $2,308.20 -$1.40
Bitcoin: 61,872 -1,939
Crude Oil: $78.03 -$0.92
DJIA: 38,675.68 +450.02
NASDAQ: 16,156.33 +315.37
S&P 500: 5127.79 +63.59
SOFR Data 05/03: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32541, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34800, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39023, INDEX: 1.13554415
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,470.52 | -5.77 | -0.23% | +1.51% | +28.72% | 5/2/2024 |
| WIG:IND
|
84,393.75 | -175.90 | -0.21% | +1.85% | +34.30% | 5/2/2024 |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,063.04 | -7.40 | -0.24% | +1.35% | +29.79% | 5/2/2024 |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0764 | 0.0039 | +0.36% | 4:53 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
152.8800 | -0.7600 | -0.49% | 4:53 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2550 | 0.0016 | +0.13% | 4:52 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6610 | 0.0045 | +0.69% | 4:53 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3686 | 0.0012 | +0.09% | 4:53 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.9050 | -0.0057 | -0.63% | 4:53 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
23.2821 | 0.0129 | +0.06% | 4:54 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.9883 | -0.1012 | -0.36% | 4:54 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.0166 | -0.0235 | -0.58% | 4:54 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
361.9700 | -1.1200 | -0.31% | 4:54 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
91.4750 | -1.7034 | -1.83% | 11:02 AM |
| USD-MXN
|
16.9821 | -0.0021 | -0.01% | 4:48 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.999 | -3.445 | -3.395 | -3.265 | 7.999 | -3.418 | -3.368 | -3.238 |
| 7.875 | -3.100 | -3.050 | -2.920 | 7.875 | -3.082 | -3.032 | -2.902 |
| 7.750 | -2.682 | -2.632 | -2.502 | 7.750 | -2.699 | -2.649 | -2.519 |
| 7.625 | -2.949 | -2.899 | -2.769 | 7.625 | -2.967 | -2.917 | -2.787 |
| 7.500 | -2.637 | -2.587 | -2.457 | 7.500 | -2.641 | -2.591 | -2.461 |
| 7.375 | -2.231 | -2.181 | -2.051 | 7.375 | -2.274 | -2.224 | -2.094 |
| 7.250 | -1.743 | -1.693 | -1.563 | 7.250 | -1.866 | -1.816 | -1.686 |
| 7.125 | -1.898 | -1.848 | -1.718 | 7.125 | -2.007 | -1.957 | -1.827 |
| 6.999 | -1.525 | -1.475 | -1.345 | 6.999 | -1.690 | -1.640 | -1.510 |
| 6.875 | -1.032 | -0.982 | -0.852 | 6.875 | -1.234 | -1.184 | -1.054 |
| 6.750 | -0.457 | -0.407 | -0.277 | 6.750 | -0.759 | -0.709 | -0.579 |
| 6.625 | -0.592 | -0.542 | -0.412 | 6.625 | -1.012 | -0.962 | -0.832 |
| 6.500 | -0.126 | -0.076 | 0.054 | 6.500 | -0.609 | -0.559 | -0.429 |
| 6.375 | 0.472 | 0.522 | 0.652 | 6.375 | -0.133 | -0.083 | 0.047 |
| 6.250 | 1.158 | 1.208 | 1.338 | 6.250 | 0.395 | 0.445 | 0.575 |
| 6.125 | 1.175 | 1.225 | 1.355 | 6.125 | 0.692 | 0.742 | 0.872 |
| 6.000 | 1.762 | 1.812 | 1.942 | 6.000 | 1.116 | 1.166 | 1.296 |
| 5.875 | 2.490 | 2.540 | 2.670 | 5.875 | 1.642 | 1.692 | 1.822 |
| 5.750 | 3.251 | 3.301 | 3.431 | 5.750 | 2.213 | 2.263 | 2.393 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.125 | -2.470 | -2.420 | -2.290 | 7.000 | -2.764 | -2.714 | -2.584 |
| 7.000 | -2.615 | -2.565 | -2.435 | 6.875 | -2.527 | -2.477 | -2.347 |
| 6.875 | -2.362 | -2.312 | -2.182 | 6.750 | -2.155 | -2.105 | -1.975 |
| 6.750 | -1.986 | -1.936 | -1.806 | 6.625 | -1.741 | -1.691 | -1.561 |
| 6.625 | -1.572 | -1.522 | -1.392 | 6.500 | -2.093 | -2.043 | -1.913 |
| 6.500 | -1.820 | -1.770 | -1.640 | 6.375 | -1.814 | -1.764 | -1.634 |
| 6.375 | -1.524 | -1.474 | -1.344 | 6.250 | -1.412 | -1.362 | -1.232 |
| 6.250 | -1.118 | -1.068 | -0.938 | 6.125 | -0.968 | -0.918 | -0.788 |
| 6.125 | -0.674 | -0.624 | -0.494 | 6.000 | -1.146 | -1.096 | -0.966 |
| 6.000 | -0.751 | -0.701 | -0.571 | 5.875 | -0.822 | -0.772 | -0.642 |
| 5.875 | -0.408 | -0.358 | -0.228 | 5.750 | -0.399 | -0.349 | -0.219 |
| 5.750 | 0.020 | 0.070 | 0.200 | 5.625 | 0.079 | 0.129 | 0.259 |
| 5.625 | 0.498 | 0.548 | 0.678 | 5.500 | -0.076 | -0.026 | 0.104 |
| 5.500 | 0.413 | 0.463 | 0.593 | 5.375 | 0.284 | 0.334 | 0.464 |
| 5.375 | 0.792 | 0.842 | 0.972 | 5.250 | 0.747 | 0.797 | 0.927 |
| 5.250 | 1.260 | 1.310 | 1.440 | 5.125 | 1.245 | 1.295 | 1.425 |
| 5.125 | 1.758 | 1.808 | 1.938 | 5.000 | 1.498 | 1.548 | 1.678 |
| 5.000 | 2.079 | 2.129 | 2.259 | 4.875 | 1.897 | 1.947 | 2.077 |
| 4.875 | 2.497 | 2.547 | 2.677 | 4.750 | 2.387 | 2.437 | 2.567 |
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Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | -0.40% | 2.11% | 6.96% | 29.44% | 38.84% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |