Magazyn Kieszeń (502) 04.27.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 May Coupon is up +30 BPS at 3:20 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: The Fed’s key measure of inflation, PCE was inline with expectations on a MOM basis but was much higher on a YOY basis. The headline PCE increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis which matched consensus estimates but YOY it increased by 2.7% versus estimates of 2.6% and well above Feb’s pace of 2.5%. Core (ex food and energy) PCE also increased by 0.3%versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis. YOY, it remained at 2.8% versus estimates of 2.6%.

Incomes and Spending: Personal Incomes were up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.5% but Personal Spending jumped by 0.8% versus estimates of 0.6%.

Consumer Sentiment: The final April reading of the UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower from 77.9 down to 77.2

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at 0.0% which was expected.

Interest rates improved today, nothing significant but one big news organization commented, “US yields declined as investors interpreted the latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation to support at least one interest-rate cut by the end of the year.” The PCE data released this morning had nothing in it that would suggest the Fed will lower rates, the core inflation was unchanged from February but still at 2.8% (although the forecast was for 2.7%, year/year overall inflation increased from 2.5% to 2.7%. The improvement driven by the coming FOMC meeting, going into the weekend traders lightened their long positions, that is all the improvement today was about.

Despite today’s minor improvement, treasuries higher for a fourth week — its worst run since October — and benchmark 10-year yield higher for a fifth week of increases.

The world awaits the FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference next Wednesday. Interest rates should trade in a narrow range until then. Some speculating the Fed may have to increase rates before any reduction. The reality is inflation has declined from 9.1% but this year inflation hasn’t moved lower. The buzz word in media now, inflation is sticky, rather a feeble definition. Fed in a conundrum. Increasing rates will drive the economy lower, cutting rates won’t change inflation.

Next Week’s calendar. Tuesday Q1 employment cost index, February Case/Shiller home price index, April Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, April consumer confidence (the University of Michigan sentiment index declined today). Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, April ADP private jobs, April ISM manufacturing index, March JOLTS job openings, March construction spending, FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March trade deficit, Q1 productivity and unit lab or costs. Friday April employment data, April ISM services sector index.

As you can see, next week is full of potential market-moving information.

This week: The 10 year note yield this week +6 bps, the 2 year note this week +2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -1 bp. The DJIA +254, NASDAQ +646, S&P +33. Gold fell $59.00, crude oil declined $0.41. Bitcoin this week -345, The dollar index declined 0.15.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.68% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.70% -2 bp

2 year note: 5.00% unch

30 year bond: 4.78% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.34 +25 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.06 +19 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 98.21 +28 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2462 +$0.0067

Dollar/Yen: 157.88 +2.22 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0699 -$0.0031

Dollar Index: 106.00 +0.40

Gold: $2,349.10 +$6.60

Bitcoin: 63,811 -866

Crude Oil: $83.65 +$0.08

DJIA: 38,239.59 +153.86

NASDAQ: 15,927.90 +316.14

S&P 500: 5099.96 +51.54

SOFR Data 04/26: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32968, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34766, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39029, INDEX: 1.13436995

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,479.10	+32.17	+1.31%	+3.83%	+31.27%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	84,443.75	+908.73	+1.09%	+3.88%	+36.24%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,064.97	+42.20	+1.40%	+3.38%	+32.10%	11:15 A

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0693	-0.0037	-0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	158.3300	2.6800	+1.72%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2493	-0.0021	-0.17%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6533	0.0015	+0.23%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3671	0.0014	+0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9142	0.0020	+0.22%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

17.1624

-0.0430

-0.25%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.4073	-0.0223	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.1727	0.0957	+0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0379	0.0163	+0.41%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	366.8200	0.7800	+0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.8800	-0.3930	-0.43%	12:12 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.45% -0.07%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.45%	-0.07	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.86%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.95%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.64%	-0.04	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	7.50%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.96%	-0.07	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/26

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.86% -0.05%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	7.17%	+0.07	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.44%	+0.05	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/25

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.24%	+0.11	0.66
15 Yr. Fixed	6.75%	+0.11	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.45%	+0.05	0.56
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/24

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0

99.37 +0.30

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0	99.37	+0.30
UMBS 6.5	101.06	+0.17
GNMA 6.0	100.35	+0.27
GNMA 6.5	101.32	+0.19
Pricing as of: 4/26 7:45PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.6645 -0.0394

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.994	-0.003
5 YR Treasury	4.690	-0.029
7 YR Treasury	4.687	-0.042
10 YR Treasury	4.665	-0.039
30 YR Treasury	4.774	-0.040
Pricing as of: 4/26 7:45PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.500	-4.076	-4.026	-3.896	8.375	-3.958	-3.908	-3.778
8.375	-3.762	-3.712	-3.582	8.250	-3.585	-3.535	-3.405
8.250	-3.370	-3.320	-3.190	8.125	-3.523	-3.473	-3.343
8.125	-3.430	-3.380	-3.250	7.999	-3.237	-3.187	-3.057
7.999	-3.155	-3.105	-2.975	7.875	-2.895	-2.845	-2.715
7.875	-2.796	-2.746	-2.616	7.750	-2.500	-2.450	-2.320
7.750	-2.349	-2.299	-2.169	7.625	-2.564	-2.514	-2.384
7.625	-2.506	-2.456	-2.326	7.500	-2.228	-2.178	-2.048
7.500	-2.189	-2.139	-2.009	7.375	-1.855	-1.805	-1.675
7.375	-1.768	-1.718	-1.588	7.250	-1.433	-1.383	-1.253
7.250	-1.249	-1.199	-1.069	7.125	-1.325	-1.275	-1.145
7.125	-1.250	-1.200	-1.070	6.999	-0.993	-0.943	-0.813
6.999	-0.884	-0.834	-0.704	6.875	-0.522	-0.472	-0.342
6.875	-0.368	-0.318	-0.188	6.750	-0.058	-0.008	0.122
6.750	0.230	0.280	0.410	6.625	0.110	0.160	0.290
6.625	0.330	0.380	0.510	6.500	0.527	0.577	0.707
6.500	0.797	0.847	0.977	6.375	1.018	1.068	1.198
6.375	1.429	1.479	1.609	6.250	1.536	1.586	1.716
6.250	2.139	2.189	2.319	6.125	1.960	2.010	2.140

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-2.824	-2.774	-2.644	7.375	-2.476	-2.426	-2.296
7.375	-2.631	-2.581	-2.451	7.250	-2.135	-2.085	-1.955
7.250	-2.285	-2.235	-2.105	7.125	-1.729	-1.679	-1.549
7.125	-1.879	-1.829	-1.699	7.000	-2.033	-1.983	-1.853
7.000	-1.983	-1.933	-1.803	6.875	-1.796	-1.746	-1.616
6.875	-1.732	-1.682	-1.552	6.750	-1.418	-1.368	-1.238
6.750	-1.349	-1.299	-1.169	6.625	-0.994	-0.944	-0.814
6.625	-0.925	-0.875	-0.745	6.500	-1.300	-1.250	-1.120
6.500	-1.127	-1.077	-0.947	6.375	-1.021	-0.971	-0.841
6.375	-0.832	-0.782	-0.652	6.250	-0.611	-0.561	-0.431
6.250	-0.417	-0.367	-0.237	6.125	-0.146	-0.096	0.034
6.125	0.048	0.098	0.228	6.000	-0.295	-0.245	-0.115
6.000	0.000	0.050	0.180	5.875	0.029	0.079	0.209
5.875	0.343	0.393	0.523	5.750	0.470	0.520	0.650
5.750	0.789	0.839	0.969	5.625	0.951	1.001	1.131
5.625	1.270	1.320	1.450	5.500	0.892	0.942	1.072
5.500	1.281	1.331	1.461	5.375	1.257	1.307	1.437
5.375	1.664	1.714	1.844	5.250	1.729	1.779	1.909
5.250	2.142	2.192	2.322	5.125	2.236	2.286	2.416