Magazyn Kieszeń (501) 04.20.2024

Market Wrap-up

The Talking Fed: We will hear from Goolsbee today.

Germany: PPI MOM 0.2% versus estimates of 0.0%.

Great Britain: Retail Sales MOM 0.0% versus estimates of 0.3%.

IMF: The IMF wraps up its week of meeting in DC.

Another tough week: it began last Saturday when Iran attacked Israel. On Monday interest rates spiked higher, adding to increase in rates that began the previous Wednesday and Thursday when CPI and PPI data revealed increased inflation. Since the 10th of April, the 10 year note yield has increased from 4.37% to 4.61% and mortgage rates now over 7.0% to 7.24% this afternoon (-126 bps than prior to the CPI). A double slam, higher than expected inflation and then Iran attacked. The Israel/Iran conflict has cooled or now, Iran saying it won’t do that again, Israel being pushed by the US to go easy. Expecting quiet in the mid-east next week.

Next Week’s calendar has the Fed’s favorite inflation data but not until next Friday. Nothing on Monday. Tuesday S&P Global manufacturing and service sector indexes, March new home sales, 2 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, March durable goods orders, 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q1 GDP advance report, March pending home sales, 7 year note auction. Friday March personal income and spending, March PCE inflation report, April final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This week the 10 year note yield increased 10 bps, the 2 year note +1 bp. The DJIA this week +3, NASDAQ -893, S&P -56. Gold increased $49.00, crude oil declined $2.29. The dollar ended the week fractionally higher. Bitcoin declined 2,827.

Recently we have warned mortgage interest rates will not decline below 6.5% even with Fed cuts, with the US spending continuing to increase the cost of borrowing will keep interest rates higher than otherwise, The US debt now at $3.4 trillion. Recall Moody’s and Fitch recently dropped the US credit rating to AA2 from AAA.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.62% -1 bp

5 year note: 4.67% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.98% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.71% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.33 +7 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.11 +4 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 98.11 +6 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2399 +$0.0017

Dollar/Yen: 154.61 -0.04 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0651 +$0.0007

Dollar Index: 106.15 unch

Gold: $2,408.00 +$10.00

Bitcoin: 64,165 +619

Crude Oil: $83.24 +$0.51

DJIA: 37,986.40 +211.02

NASDAQ: 15,282.01 -319.39

S&P 500: 4967.23 -43.89

SOFR Data 04/19: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33002, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34789, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.39006, INDEX: 1.13319948

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,464.04	+3.05	+0.12%	+3.63%	+29.64%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	83,206.00	+16.54	+0.02%	+2.73%	+33.32%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,049.43	-1.82	-0.06%	+3.14%	+30.19%	11:15 A

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0656	0.0013	+0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	154.6400	0.0000	0.00%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2370	-0.0066	-0.53%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6418	-0.0003	-0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3751	-0.0016	-0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9102	-0.0021	-0.23%	4:59

USD-MXN

17.0948

0.0269

+0.16%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.6986	-0.0504	-0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.2714	-0.0337	-0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0442	-0.0306	-0.75%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	369.9800	-0.5100	-0.14%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	93.1090	-0.8718	-0.93%	10:26 AM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.44% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.44%	+0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.85%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.92%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.62%	0.00	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	7.41%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.94%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/19

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.85% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	7.10%	+0.22	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.39%	+0.23	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/18

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.13%	+0.12	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.64%	+0.18	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.40%	+0.27	0.46
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/17

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0

99.32 +0.03

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0	99.32	+0.03
UMBS 6.5	101.09	+0.00
GNMA 6.0	100.08	+0.02
GNMA 6.5	101.15	+0.01
Pricing as of: 4/19 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.6238 -0.0027

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.988	-0.002
5 YR Treasury	4.673	-0.004
7 YR Treasury	4.655	-0.006
10 YR Treasury	4.624	-0.003
30 YR Treasury	4.715	-0.017
Pricing as of: 4/19 5:31PM EST

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.500

-4.089

-4.039

-3.909

8.250

-3.568

-3.518

-3.388

8.375

-3.773

-3.723

-3.593

8.125

-3.507

-3.457

-3.327

8.250

-3.378

-3.328

-3.198

7.999

-3.219

-3.169

-3.039

8.125

-3.457

-3.407

-3.277

7.875

-2.880

-2.830

-2.700

7.999

-3.180

-3.130

-3.000

7.750

-2.494

-2.444

-2.314

7.875

-2.819

-2.769

-2.639

7.625

-2.573

-2.523

-2.393

7.750

-2.371

-2.321

-2.191

7.500

-2.233

-2.183

-2.053

7.625

-2.562

-2.512

-2.382

7.375

-1.863

-1.813

-1.683

7.500

-2.243

-2.193

-2.063

7.250

-1.454

-1.404

-1.274

7.375

-1.819

-1.769

-1.639

7.125

-1.203

-1.153

-1.023

7.250

-1.301

-1.251

-1.121

6.999

-0.890

-0.840

-0.710

7.125

-1.174

-1.124

-0.994

6.875

-0.428

-0.378

-0.248

6.999

-0.804

-0.754

-0.624

6.750

0.037

0.087

0.217

6.875

-0.285

-0.235

-0.105

6.625

0.161

0.211

0.341

6.750

0.309

0.359

0.489

6.500

0.565

0.615

0.745

6.625

0.332

0.382

0.512

6.375

1.046

1.096

1.226

6.500

0.801

0.851

0.981

6.250

1.563

1.613

1.743

6.375

1.436

1.486

1.616

6.125

1.998

2.048

2.178

6.250

2.146

2.196

2.326

6.000

2.424

2.474

2.604

ELITE 11-15 YEAR

ELITE 8-10 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

7.500

-2.780

-2.730

-2.600

7.375

-2.429

-2.379

-2.249

7.375

-2.583

-2.533

-2.403

7.250

-2.096

-2.046

-1.916

7.250

-2.246

-2.196

-2.066

7.125

-1.705

-1.655

-1.525

7.125

-1.855

-1.805

-1.675

7.000

-1.979

-1.929

-1.799

7.000

-1.929

-1.879

-1.749

6.875

-1.748

-1.698

-1.568

6.875

-1.684

-1.634

-1.504

6.750

-1.376

-1.326

-1.196

6.750

-1.307

-1.257

-1.127

6.625

-0.960

-0.910

-0.780

6.625

-0.891

-0.841

-0.711

6.500

-1.169

-1.119

-0.989

6.500

-0.996

-0.946

-0.816

6.375

-0.896

-0.846

-0.716

6.375

-0.707

-0.657

-0.527

6.250

-0.497

-0.447

-0.317

6.250

-0.303

-0.253

-0.123

6.125

-0.052

-0.002

0.128

6.125

0.142

0.192

0.322

6.000

-0.274

-0.224

-0.094

6.000

0.021

0.071

0.201

5.875

0.052

0.102

0.232

5.875

0.366

0.416

0.546

5.750

0.475

0.525

0.655

5.750

0.794

0.844

0.974

5.625

0.954

1.004

1.134

5.625

1.273

1.323

1.453

5.500

0.825

0.875

1.005

5.500

1.214

1.264

1.394

5.375

1.193

1.243

1.373

5.375

1.601

1.651

1.781

5.250

1.659

1.709

1.839

5.250

2.072

2.122

2.252

5.125

2.149

2.199

2.329

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL