Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Will it be Big Jobs Friday, the bond market will be very sensitive to the Non Farm Payroll data which is expected to be in the 200K range. However, its the revisions to the prior three months that may be the driving factor in pricing if they are significant enough. Average Hourly Earnings, a key factor in inflation, is expected to rise by 0.3% on a MOM basis which is three times higher than the prior month’s pace of 0.1%. The headline Unemployment Rate is expected to remain below the important 4.0% mark at 3.9% which would be unchanged from the prior month. Overall, the stronger this data is – the worse it will be for pricing and vice versa. Non Farm Payrolls came in at 303k with minor downward revisions to February. Average hourly earnings met expectations by increasing by 0.3% but February was revised higher. The unemployment rate was lower than expected at 3.8%.
Strong jobs in March, labor participation rate increased, average hourly earnings increased from February. Overall a much stronger employment report than what was expected. The data pushed interest rates higher, however the 10 year note found a little support when its yield hit its recent high at 4.40%, interday the yield backed down from 4.40% to 4.35% but didn’t hold, ending the session at 4.40%. MBS prices tried to stand but followed the 10 back to -19 bps on the session.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Friday said she’s uncertain about the general view that U.S. inflation will keep trending down this year and allow the central bank to start to lower interest rates. “I believe it much too soon to think about cutting interest rates,” Logan said, in a speech at Duke University. “I will need to see more of the uncertainty resolved about which economy path we’re on,” Logan added.
As expected, the strong employment report rallied the stock indexes.
February consumer credit +$14.1B, less than $17.3B expected; revolving credit however continued to increase, increasing 7.6%. Consumers still looking positive using credit at the high current rates.
Next Week’s Calendar marked with key inflation data. Tuesday March CPI, NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday MBA mortgage apps, FOMC minutes, March Treasury balance. Thursday weekly claims, March PPI. Friday March import and export prices, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This week: The 10 year note yield increased 18 bps, the 2 year +14 bps. MBS prices -38 bps, mortgage rates held quite well compared to treasuries. The DJIA lost 903, NASDAQ -136, S&P -50. Gold had a huge week, increasing $102.00, crude oil increased $3.76. The dollar index declined 0.26 on strong employment. Bitcoin took a breather -3,138.
Interest rates at their highest of the year; the idea of a June rate cut mostly shredded for the moment, but as we have noted it is a moving target depending on each inflation and economic reports. Next week CPI and PPI will set the tone. Technically interest rates are bearish near term, the key for mortgage rates now is whether the 10 can hold at 4.40%. A break above 4.40% may push the note to 4.47%. Mortgage rates up another 15 bps.
CENY @ 4:00 PM 04.05.2024
10 year note: 4.39% +8 bp
5 year note: 4.39% +8 bp
2 year note: 4.75% +9 bp
30 year bond: 4.54% +7 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.55 -25 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.16 -4+2 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.61 -22 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2331 -$0.0019
Dollar/Yen: 151.64 +0.29 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0834 -$0.0004
Dollar Index: 104.29 +0.17
Gold: $2,342.10 +$33.60
Bitcoin: 67,672 -773
Crude Oil: $86.82 +$0.23
DJIA: 38,904.04 +307.06
NASDAQ: 16,248.52 +199.44
S&P 500: 5204.34 +57.13
SOFR Data 04/05: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32901, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34775, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38966, INDEX: 1.13086121
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,470.75 | +1.45 | +0.06% | +4.35% | +40.63% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
83,642.13 | -224.83 | -0.27% | +3.85% | +42.86% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,062.29 | -5.97 | -0.19% | +3.78% | +41.50% |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) | |||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.0837 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-JPY
|
151.6200 | 0.2800 | +0.19% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.2638 | -0.0004 | -0.03% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6579 | -0.0009 | -0.14% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3590 | 0.0047 | +0.35% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.9018 | 0.0004 | +0.04% | 4:59 P | |||||
| USD-MXN
|
16.4530 | -0.1354 | -0.82% | 4:59 PM | |||||
| USD-CZK
|
23.3458 | -0.0217 | -0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.7995 | 0.0003 | +0.00% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9488 | -0.0105 | -0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
359.7900 | -2.0100 | -0.56% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
92.5941 | 0.3441 | +0.37% |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.000 | -3.467 | -3.417 | -3.287 | 7.875 | -3.452 | -3.402 | -3.272 |
| 7.875 | -3.171 | -3.121 | -2.991 | 7.750 | -3.071 | -3.021 | -2.891 |
| 7.750 | -2.774 | -2.724 | -2.594 | 7.625 | -3.397 | -3.347 | -3.217 |
| 7.625 | -3.083 | -3.033 | -2.903 | 7.500 | -3.102 | -3.052 | -2.922 |
| 7.500 | -2.806 | -2.756 | -2.626 | 7.375 | -2.745 | -2.695 | -2.565 |
| 7.375 | -2.445 | -2.395 | -2.265 | 7.250 | -2.350 | -2.300 | -2.170 |
| 7.250 | -2.002 | -1.952 | -1.822 | 7.125 | -2.333 | -2.283 | -2.153 |
| 7.125 | -1.977 | -1.927 | -1.797 | 6.999 | -2.026 | -1.976 | -1.846 |
| 6.999 | -1.642 | -1.592 | -1.462 | 6.875 | -1.620 | -1.570 | -1.440 |
| 6.875 | -1.226 | -1.176 | -1.046 | 6.750 | -1.168 | -1.118 | -0.988 |
| 6.750 | -0.688 | -0.638 | -0.508 | 6.625 | -1.307 | -1.257 | -1.127 |
| 6.625 | -0.781 | -0.731 | -0.601 | 6.500 | -0.935 | -0.885 | -0.755 |
| 6.500 | -0.415 | -0.365 | -0.235 | 6.375 | -0.471 | -0.421 | -0.291 |
| 6.375 | 0.110 | 0.160 | 0.290 | 6.250 | 0.020 | 0.070 | 0.200 |
| 6.250 | 0.736 | 0.786 | 0.916 | 6.125 | 0.297 | 0.347 | 0.477 |
| 6.125 | 0.775 | 0.825 | 0.955 | 5.999 | 0.706 | 0.756 | 0.886 |
| 5.999 | 1.295 | 1.345 | 1.475 | 5.875 | 1.225 | 1.275 | 1.405 |
| 5.875 | 1.949 | 1.999 | 2.129 | 5.750 | 1.783 | 1.833 | 1.963 |
| 5.750 | 2.690 | 2.740 | 2.870 | 5.625 | 2.322 | 2.372 | 2.502 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -2.574 | -2.524 | -2.394 | 7.000 | -2.627 | -2.577 | -2.447 |
| 6.875 | -2.282 | -2.232 | -2.102 | 6.875 | -2.347 | -2.297 | -2.167 |
| 6.750 | -1.927 | -1.877 | -1.747 | 6.750 | -1.996 | -1.946 | -1.816 |
| 6.625 | -1.528 | -1.478 | -1.348 | 6.625 | -1.597 | -1.547 | -1.417 |
| 6.500 | -1.768 | -1.718 | -1.588 | 6.500 | -1.943 | -1.893 | -1.763 |
| 6.375 | -1.486 | -1.436 | -1.306 | 6.375 | -1.676 | -1.626 | -1.496 |
| 6.250 | -1.100 | -1.050 | -0.920 | 6.250 | -1.294 | -1.244 | -1.114 |
| 6.125 | -0.674 | -0.624 | -0.494 | 6.125 | -0.868 | -0.818 | -0.688 |
| 6.000 | -0.911 | -0.861 | -0.731 | 6.000 | -1.206 | -1.156 | -1.026 |
| 5.875 | -0.588 | -0.538 | -0.408 | 5.875 | -0.902 | -0.852 | -0.722 |
| 5.750 | -0.167 | -0.117 | 0.013 | 5.750 | -0.486 | -0.436 | -0.306 |
| 5.625 | 0.292 | 0.342 | 0.472 | 5.625 | -0.027 | 0.023 | 0.153 |
| 5.500 | 0.239 | 0.289 | 0.419 | 5.500 | -0.150 | -0.100 | 0.030 |
| 5.375 | 0.604 | 0.654 | 0.784 | 5.375 | 0.196 | 0.246 | 0.376 |
| 5.250 | 1.050 | 1.100 | 1.230 | 5.250 | 0.637 | 0.687 | 0.817 |
| 5.125 | 1.525 | 1.575 | 1.705 | 5.125 | 1.112 | 1.162 | 1.292 |
| 5.000 | 1.855 | 1.905 | 2.035 | 5.000 | 1.371 | 1.421 | 1.551 |
| 4.875 | 2.253 | 2.303 | 2.433 | 4.875 | 1.752 | 1.802 | 1.932 |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | -0.40% | 2.11% | 6.96% | 29.44% | 38.84% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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