Magazyn Kieszeń (500) 04.13.2024

Market Wrap-up.

Inflation Nation: March Import Prices increased by 0.4% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.3% and on a YOY basis, it moved from a -0.8% paid in February to a +0.4% in March. For Export Prices, they were up 0.3% on a MOM basis with matched expectations. YOY, it was -1.4% versus last of -1.8%.

Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary April UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was weaker than expected, falling to 77.9 from 79.4. The 1 year inflation expectations jumped from 2.9% to 3.1

It has been a tough week; inflation not falling as markets were expecting. Interest rates increased, the 10 jumped 12 bps (at one point early this morning the 10 yield for the week was +22 bps higher). Questions abound in markets after inflation concerns increased and the potential for a Fed cut that was penciled in at the June FOMC meeting now chatter is the first cut may not occur until this fall. The economy is smoking, unemployment rate at multi-year lows. Treasury sold $124B of notes and bonds with very weak demand. The DJIA down over a 1K points. Consumer sentiment for mid-April declined as interest rates have increased the past two week.

Next Week the calendar focuses on the housing sector. Monday March retail sales, Feb business inventories, April NAHB housing market index. Tuesday March housing starts and permits, March industrial production and factory use. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, April Philadelphia Fed business index, March existing home sales. Nothing next Friday.

This Week: 10 year note this week +13 bps, the 2 year note +15 bps. FNMA 6,0 30 year coupon this week -76 bps. The DJIA this week -921, NASDAQ -74, S& -81. Gold increased $197.00 even with a very strong dollar. Crude oil declined $1.29. The dollar roared higher on less rate cuts coming, the index jumped 1.74. Bitcoin -732 on the week.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

WE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM RISK OVER THE WEEKEND

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.52% -7 bp

5 year note: 4.56% -8 bp

2 year note: 4.97% -7 bp

30 year bond: 4.63% -5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.79 +12 bp (4 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.41 +6 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 98.78 +16 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2376 unch

Dollar/Yen: 153.24 -0.04 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0641 -$0.0088

Dollar Index: 106.03 +0.75

Gold: $2,359.40 -$13.30

Bitcoin: 66,940 -3,519

Crude Oil: $85.53 +$0.51

DJIA: 37,983.24 -475.84

NASDAQ: 16,175.09 -267.10

S&P 500: 5123.41 -75.65

SOFR Data 04/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33002, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34810, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38983, INDEX: 1.13203021

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,446.16	-22.15	-0.90%	+0.87%	+34.68%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	82,864.69	-627.59	-0.75%	+1.16%	+35.19%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,030.12	-27.36	-0.89%	+0.55%	+35.36%	11:1

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0643	-0.0083	-0.77%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	153.2300	-0.0400	-0.03%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2452	-0.0101	-0.80%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6467	-0.0071	-1.09%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3775	0.0086	+0.63%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9137	0.0037	+0.41%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN		16.6441	0.2038		+1.24%		4:5
USD-CZK	23.7989			0.1458		+0.62%		4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.3063			0.2197		+0.78%		4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0283			0.0546		+1.37%		4:59 PM
USD-HUF	369.1700			5.9000		+1.62%		4:59 PM
USD-RUB	93.3003			0.0237		+0.03%		12:09 P

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.30% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.30% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.70% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.51% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.20% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.72% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/12 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/11   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.01% +0.10 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 6.46% +0.11 0.60 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.07 0.56 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/10

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 97.98 +0.29   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 97.98 +0.29 UMBS 6.0 99.79 +0.23 GNMA 5.5 98.73 +0.15 GNMA 6.0 100.41 +0.21 Pricing as of: 4/12 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5185 -0.0726   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.896 -0.070 5 YR Treasury 4.554 -0.083 7 YR Treasury 4.541 -0.084 10 YR Treasury 4.519 -0.073 30 YR Treasury 4.625 -0.054 Pricing as of: 4/12 5:31PM EST

 

 Home price changes in your local market — Fourth Quarter 2023

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR								ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
8.125		-3.667		-3.617		-3.487		8.125		-3.856		-3.806		-3.676
8.000		-3.416		-3.366		-3.236		8.000		-3.596		-3.546		-3.416
7.875		-3.082		-3.032		-2.902		7.875		-3.267		-3.217		-3.087
7.750		-2.641		-2.591		-2.461		7.750		-2.866		-2.816		-2.686
7.625		-2.849		-2.799		-2.669		7.625		-3.010		-2.960		-2.830
7.500		-2.558		-2.508		-2.378		7.500		-2.700		-2.650		-2.520
7.375		-2.154		-2.104		-1.974		7.375		-2.336		-2.286		-2.156
7.250		-1.657		-1.607		-1.477		7.250		-1.923		-1.873		-1.743
7.125		-1.643		-1.593		-1.463		7.125		-1.824		-1.774		-1.644
6.999		-1.291		-1.241		-1.111		6.999		-1.470		-1.420		-1.290
6.875		-0.811		-0.761		-0.631		6.875		-1.044		-0.994		-0.864
6.750		-0.228		-0.178		-0.048		6.750		-0.591		-0.541		-0.411
6.625		-0.299		-0.249		-0.119		6.625		-0.600		-0.550		-0.420
6.500		0.129		0.179		0.309		6.500		-0.178		-0.128		0.002
6.375		0.748		0.798		0.928		6.375		0.301		0.351		0.481
6.250		1.435		1.485		1.615		6.250		0.785		0.835		0.965
6.125		1.503		1.553		1.683		6.125		1.113		1.163		1.293
5.999		2.094		2.144		2.274		5.999		1.554		1.604		1.734
5.875		2.812		2.862		2.992		5.875		2.083		2.133		2.263
ELITE 11-15 YEAR							ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.000	-2.368		-2.318		-2.188		7.000		-2.421		-2.371		-2.241
6.875	-2.065		-2.015		-1.885		6.875		-2.131		-2.081		-1.951
6.750	-1.688		-1.638		-1.508		6.750		-1.757		-1.707		-1.577
6.625	-1.271		-1.221		-1.091		6.625		-1.340		-1.290		-1.160
6.500	-1.445		-1.395		-1.265		6.500		-1.620		-1.570		-1.440
6.375	-1.160		-1.110		-0.980		6.375		-1.349		-1.299		-1.169
6.250	-0.749		-0.699		-0.569		6.250		-0.943		-0.893		-0.763
6.125	-0.291		-0.241		-0.111		6.125		-0.485		-0.435		-0.305
6.000	-0.569		-0.519		-0.389		6.000		-0.864		-0.814		-0.684
5.875	-0.248		-0.198		-0.068		5.875		-0.562		-0.512		-0.382
5.750	0.199		0.249		0.379		5.750		-0.120		-0.070		0.060
5.625	0.672		0.722		0.852		5.625		0.353		0.403		0.533
5.500	0.625		0.675		0.805		5.500		0.236		0.286		0.416
5.375	0.993		1.043		1.173		5.375		0.585		0.635		0.765
5.250	1.459		1.509		1.639		5.250		1.046		1.096		1.226
5.125	1.961		2.011		2.141		5.125		1.548		1.598		1.728
5.000	2.260		2.310		2.440		5.000		1.777		1.827		1.957
4.875	2.670		2.720		2.850		4.875		2.169		2.219		2.349
4.750	3.161		3.211		3.341		4.750		2.655		2.705		2.835