Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 January Coupon is currently +21 BPS at 3:30 pm ET.

Inflation Nation: The December inflation index Producer Price Index (PPI) was lower than expected, dropping by -0.1% and November was revised lower to -0.1% as well, making this two straight months of negative PPI readings. YOY, it was up 1.0% versus estimates of 1.3%. Core PPI was flat at 0.0% versus estimates of 0.2% on a MOM basis and up 1.8% versus estimates of 1.9% on a YOY basis.

On Deck for Tomorrow: ***The bond market is CLOSED on Monday***

PPI inflation declined from estimates, initial reaction dropped the 10 year note from 4.01% to 3.96%. PPI month/month expected +0.2% declined 0.1%, and down 0.1% from November, year/year expected +1.3% increased just 1.0%. Core PPI (ex-food and energy) month/month expected +0.2% reported 0.0%, year/year forecasts +2.0% but increased 1.8%. Mortgage prices increased as the 10 year continued to hold under 4.0% The decline in rates today led by the 2 year note dropping 11 bps, close to the lowest levels in 6 months.

The Fed continues to try and cool the view rates will start falling at the March FOMC, but markets are not biting on the bait. The likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March went up to 76% from 70% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed funds futures yesterday were indicating a 39% chance rates will be cut, now the odds are a 59% after PPI. Some are talking seven cuts this year, the same number of FOMC meetings less one (8 meetings). Can’t yet join that number of cuts and it will vary with incoming news and data.

Next Week: Monday, ALL markets will be closed for MLK birthday. Tuesday Jan NY Empire State manufacturing index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps., Dec retail sales, Dec import and export prices, Dec industrial production and capacity utilization, Jan NAHB housing market index, Fed Beige Boog. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Dec housing starts and permits. Friday Dec existing home sales, U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index. Unless a funding deal is resolved in Congress the government will shut down next Thursday— a deal will get done, no worries.

This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 9 bps, the 2 year note fell 21 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increased 42 bps. The DJIA this week +127, NASDAQ +449, S&P +87. Gold unchanged on the week, crude oil declined $1.08. The dollar index essentially unchanged. Bitcoin went public, trading ETFs, the coin increased 6.891.

Mideast tensions are increasing, attacks growing with little fear of strong resistance from US and allies. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis fed by Iran. Will the US step up its involvement, Biden doesn’t want to, Iran continues to tease with skirmishes led by its proxies, testing the administrations will.

Interest rates steady into a three-day weekend. Technicals looking good. No direct inflation data next week.

CENY @ 4:00 PM 01.12.2024

10 year note: 3.96% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.84% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.19% -8 bp

30 year bond: 4.20% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.54 unch (- 7bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.49 +1 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.86 +13 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1621 unch

Dollar/Yen: 144.90 -0.38 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0953 -$0.0019

Dollar Index: 102.41 +0.12

Gold: $2.050.80 +$31.70

Bitcoin: 43,957 -2,244 (buy the rumor, sell the fact)

Crude Oil: $72.76 +$0.74

DJIA: 37,592.98 -118.04

NASDAQ: 14,972.76 +2.57

S&P 500: 4783.83 +3.59

SOFR Data 01/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34600, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35993, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.36983, INDEX: 1.11692971

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,248.58	+2.37	+0.11%	-1.97%	+16.46%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	76,106.25	+63.30	+0.08%	-0.96%	+23.25%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,792.64	+0.72	+0.03%	-1.93%	+17.79%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0951	-0.0021	-0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	144.8800	-0.4100	-0.28%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2753	-0.0007	-0.05%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6686	-0.0002	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3410	0.0015	+0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8523	0.0003	+0.04%	4:59 P

USD-CZK	22.4933	-0.0041	-0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.5099	0.0531	+0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9794	0.0127	+0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	346.2200	0.7800	+0.23%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	88.3870	-0.3183	-0.36%	10:51 AM

USD-MXN

16.8683

-0.0446

-0.26%

4:59 PM

MORTGAGE RATES

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.69% -0.03%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	6.69%	-0.03	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.95%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.00%	-0.10	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.98%	-0.02	0.00
5/1 ARM	6.19%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.02%	-0.08	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/12

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

5.95% -0.05%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.66%	+0.04	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.87%	-0.02	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/11

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.81%	+0.05	0.61
15 Yr. Fixed	6.41%	+0.15	0.55
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.98%	+0.12	0.43
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/10

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5

100.53 +0.16

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.5	100.53	+0.16
UMBS 6.0	101.34	-0.14
GNMA 5.5	100.86	+0.19
GNMA 6.0	101.44	-0.22
Pricing as of: 1/12 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

3.9450 -0.0300

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.152	-0.097
5 YR Treasury	3.839	-0.049
7 YR Treasury	3.895	-0.041
10 YR Treasury	3.945	-0.030
30 YR Treasury	4.180	-0.001
Pricing as of: 1/12 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

7.500

-3.269

-3.219

-3.089

7.500

-3.802

-3.752

-3.622

7.375

-2.940

-2.890

-2.760

7.375

-3.474

-3.424

-3.294

7.250

-2.582

-2.532

-2.402

7.250

-3.143

-3.093

-2.963

7.125

-2.772

-2.722

-2.592

7.125

-3.272

-3.222

-3.092

6.999

-2.518

-2.468

-2.338

6.999

-3.007

-2.957

-2.827

6.875

-2.141

-2.091

-1.961

6.875

-2.643

-2.593

-2.463

6.750

-1.655

-1.605

-1.475

6.750

-2.229

-2.179

-2.049

6.625

-2.208

-2.158

-2.028

6.625

-2.851

-2.801

-2.671

6.500

-1.884

-1.834

-1.704

6.500

-2.517

-2.467

-2.337

6.375

-1.414

-1.364

-1.234

6.375

-2.105

-2.055

-1.925

6.250

-0.861

-0.811

-0.681

6.250

-1.654

-1.604

-1.474

6.125

-1.161

-1.111

-0.981

6.125

-1.580

-1.530

-1.400

5.999

-0.756

-0.706

-0.576

5.999

-1.202

-1.152

-1.022

5.875

-0.144

-0.094

0.036

5.875

-0.709

-0.659

-0.529

5.750

0.541

0.591

0.721

5.750

-0.216

-0.166

-0.036

5.625

0.617

0.667

0.797

5.625

0.283

0.333

0.463

5.500

1.216

1.266

1.396

5.500

0.855

0.905

1.035

5.375

1.917

1.967

2.097

5.375

1.360

1.410

1.540

5.250

2.647

2.697

2.827

5.250

1.902

1.952

2.082

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.625	-2.456	-2.406	-2.276	6.625	-2.337	-2.287	-2.157
6.500	-2.777	-2.727	-2.597	6.500	-2.644	-2.594	-2.464
6.375	-2.539	-2.489	-2.359	6.375	-2.417	-2.367	-2.237
6.250	-2.161	-2.111	-1.981	6.250	-2.042	-1.992	-1.862
6.125	-1.751	-1.701	-1.571	6.125	-1.632	-1.582	-1.452
6.000	-2.165	-2.115	-1.985	6.000	-2.030	-1.980	-1.850
5.875	-1.950	-1.900	-1.770	5.875	-1.828	-1.778	-1.648
5.750	-1.542	-1.492	-1.362	5.750	-1.423	-1.373	-1.243
5.625	-1.105	-1.055	-0.925	5.625	-0.986	-0.936	-0.806
5.500	-1.262	-1.212	-1.082	5.500	-1.187	-1.137	-1.007
5.375	-0.920	-0.870	-0.740	5.375	-0.859	-0.809	-0.679
5.250	-0.500	-0.450	-0.320	5.250	-0.443	-0.393	-0.263
5.125	-0.033	0.017	0.147	5.125	0.023	0.073	0.203
5.000	-0.020	0.030	0.160	5.000	0.001	0.051	0.181
4.875	0.362	0.412	0.542	4.875	0.367	0.417	0.547
4.750	0.825	0.875	1.005	4.750	0.825	0.875	1.005
4.625	1.319	1.369	1.499	4.625	1.319	1.369	1.499
4.500	1.718	1.768	1.898	4.500	1.682	1.732	1.862
4.375	2.153	2.203	2.333	4.375	2.096	2.146	2.276

See home price changes in your local market — Third Quarter 2023

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.19%	5.85%	5.33%	31.01%	38.45%

MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (488) 01.13.2024

Market Wrap-up

Poland

WALUTY

MORTGAGE RATES

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE