Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 January Coupon is down up -8 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday!! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
Non Farm Payroll adds (NFP) for December was hotter than expected, 216K versus estimates of 170K.
November NFP was revised lower from 199K to 173K.
October NFP was revised lower from 150K to 105K.
The rolling three month average is now 164K.
Wages:
The national average hourly earnings rate increased by a large margin, up 15 cents to $34.27.
MOM, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.
YOY, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.1% versus estimates of 3.9%.
Unemployment:
The Unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, estimates were fro 3.8%.
The U6 Underemployment Rate rose from 7.0% to 7.1%.
The Laborforce Participation Rate dropped from 62.8% to 62.5%.
Services: The December ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (services), which represents approximately 2/3 of our economic engine, continues to show expansion with a reading of 50.6 but it was much lower than the estimates of 52.6. The Employment Index showed dismal results at 43.3 versus November’s pace of 50.7 and the Prices Paid remained elevated at 57.4.
Rosie the Riveter: November Factory Orders were up 2.6% versus estimates of 2.1%.
Even prior to the strong employment report this morning the 10 year note yield traded 4 bps from yesterday to 4.04%, on the release of the data the 10 increased to 4.10%. MBS prices at 9 am ET -28 bps. The headlines: payrolls climbed by 216,000 in December, the most in three months but October and November revisions took 71K jobs from the original releases. The unemployment rate expected at 3.8% increased 3.7%. Average hourly earnings +0.4% the same as November but higher than 0.3% forecasts, year/year expectations +3.9% jumped to 4.1%. The labor participation rate declined from 62.8 to 62.5%, the lowest in months adding to the initial reaction; employment down 800K dropping 683K in December based on the household survey now included in the monthly data.
The initial reaction quickly flipped when the December ISM services sector index, released at 10 am saw a big decline, the index expected at 52.7 unchanged from November but the dropped to 50.3. almost indicating contraction (50 is the pivot). Services are one of the strongest sectors in the employment measurements. December’s payroll gains were driven by three categories: Education/health, leisure/hospitality, and government.
Reactions to the 8:30 am employment sent MBS prices lower and the 10 year note yield 10 bps higher than yesterday. When the ISM data hit interest rates rallied from the high yields and low MBS prices. Between 8:30 am and 10 am the odds for a march rate cut from the Fed had plummeted with the strength in employment taking some of the euphoria from the outlook that had been gaining strength. Now a March rate cut is being questioned.
Next week’s Calendar: Monday November consumer credit (looking at revolving credit, the use of credit cards). Tuesday Nov US trade deficit. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly claims, December CPI, Dec treasury budget. Friday Dec PPI. The key data on Thursday and Friday inflation readings.
This Week: The 10 year note rate increased 17 bps from last Friday, the 2 year note +15 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -49 bps. The DJIA -225, NASDAQ -87, S&P -73. Gold this week -$19.00, crude oil +$2.24. The US dollar continued to improve; the index increased from 101.31 to 102.45 +1.14. Bitcoin unchanged this week, +63 after the strong gain last week.
Interest rates had a wild ride today, trading higher (rates) on the employment report at 8:30 am, rallying on the December ISM service sector decline at 10 am, at about 11 am the 10 year note had fallen from 4.09% +9 bps to 3.95% -3 bps before settling at 4.05% +5 bps on the day. MBSs followed, -25, +8 before ending 3 bps lower on the day. The spread between the 10 year note yield and 30 year mortgages continues to tighten. Mortgage rates today 6.76% unchanged from yesterday while the 10 -5 bps.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE WILL REMAIN LOCKED.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.05% +5 bp
5 year note: 4.02% +4 bp
2 year note: 4.40% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.21% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.12 -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.21 +4 bp
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.27 +9 bp
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1299 -$0.0240
Dollar/Yen: 144.74 +0.11 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0941 -$0.0005
Dollar Index: 102.48 +0.07
Gold: $2050.40 +40.40
Bitcoin: 43,895 -568
Crude Oil: $73.84 +$1.65
DJIA: 37,466.11 +25.77
NASDAQ: 14,524.07 +13.77
S&P 500: 4697.24 +8.56
SOFR Data 01/05: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34801, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35991, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35968, INDEX: 1.11577724
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,274.59 | -7.64 | -0.33% | -1.05% | +22.55% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
76,593.75 | -234.10 | -0.30% | -0.67% | +27.97% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,823.35 | -8.83 | -0.31% | -1.27% | +23.61% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0943 | -0.0002 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
144.6300 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2720 | 0.0038 | +0.30% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6713 | 0.0006 | +0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3363 | 0.0013 | +0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8500 | -0.0002 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.4864 | -0.0533 | -0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.5308 | 0.0051 | +0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9772 | 0.0058 | +0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
345.5000 | -0.6500 | -0.19% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
90.9373 | -0.3786 | -0.41% | 11:04 AM |
| USD-MXN
|
16.8793 | -0.1353 | -0.80% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.750 | -2.779 | -2.729 | -2.599 | 7.750 | -3.368 | -3.318 | -3.188 |
| 7.625 | -3.257 | -3.207 | -3.077 | 7.625 | -3.694 | -3.644 | -3.514 |
| 7.500 | -3.025 | -2.975 | -2.845 | 7.500 | -3.448 | -3.398 | -3.268 |
| 7.375 | -2.666 | -2.616 | -2.486 | 7.375 | -3.106 | -3.056 | -2.926 |
| 7.250 | -2.242 | -2.192 | -2.062 | 7.250 | -2.735 | -2.685 | -2.555 |
| 7.125 | -2.591 | -2.541 | -2.411 | 7.125 | -2.966 | -2.916 | -2.786 |
| 6.999 | -2.329 | -2.279 | -2.149 | 6.999 | -2.685 | -2.635 | -2.505 |
| 6.875 | -1.915 | -1.865 | -1.735 | 6.875 | -2.316 | -2.266 | -2.136 |
| 6.750 | -1.401 | -1.351 | -1.221 | 6.750 | -1.901 | -1.851 | -1.721 |
| 6.625 | -1.745 | -1.695 | -1.565 | 6.625 | -2.256 | -2.206 | -2.076 |
| 6.500 | -1.413 | -1.363 | -1.233 | 6.500 | -1.897 | -1.847 | -1.717 |
| 6.375 | -0.921 | -0.871 | -0.741 | 6.375 | -1.465 | -1.415 | -1.285 |
| 6.250 | -0.337 | -0.287 | -0.157 | 6.250 | -1.021 | -0.971 | -0.841 |
| 6.125 | -0.544 | -0.494 | -0.364 | 6.125 | -0.826 | -0.776 | -0.646 |
| 5.999 | -0.068 | -0.018 | 0.112 | 5.999 | -0.427 | -0.377 | -0.247 |
| 5.875 | 0.589 | 0.639 | 0.769 | 5.875 | 0.074 | 0.124 | 0.254 |
| 5.750 | 1.313 | 1.363 | 1.493 | 5.750 | 0.568 | 0.618 | 0.748 |
| 5.625 | 1.419 | 1.469 | 1.599 | 5.625 | 1.056 | 1.106 | 1.236 |
| 5.500 | 2.036 | 2.086 | 2.216 | 5.500 | 1.664 | 1.714 | 1.844 |
| ELITE PROGRAM IS DESIGNED FOR BORROWERS WITH 700+ CREDIT SCORES, LTV’S 80% OR LESS, AND LOAN AMTS => THAN 125K | |||||||
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.875 | -2.922 | -2.872 | -2.742 | 6.875 | -2.800 | -2.750 | -2.620 |
| 6.750 | -2.590 | -2.540 | -2.410 | 6.750 | -2.471 | -2.421 | -2.291 |
| 6.625 | -2.201 | -2.151 | -2.021 | 6.625 | -2.082 | -2.032 | -1.902 |
| 6.500 | -2.457 | -2.407 | -2.277 | 6.500 | -2.324 | -2.274 | -2.144 |
| 6.375 | -2.213 | -2.163 | -2.033 | 6.375 | -2.092 | -2.042 | -1.912 |
| 6.250 | -1.828 | -1.778 | -1.648 | 6.250 | -1.709 | -1.659 | -1.529 |
| 6.125 | -1.409 | -1.359 | -1.229 | 6.125 | -1.291 | -1.241 | -1.111 |
| 6.000 | -1.595 | -1.545 | -1.415 | 6.000 | -1.460 | -1.410 | -1.280 |
| 5.875 | -1.394 | -1.344 | -1.214 | 5.875 | -1.272 | -1.222 | -1.092 |
| 5.750 | -0.978 | -0.928 | -0.798 | 5.750 | -0.859 | -0.809 | -0.679 |
| 5.625 | -0.520 | -0.470 | -0.340 | 5.625 | -0.402 | -0.352 | -0.222 |
| 5.500 | -0.565 | -0.515 | -0.385 | 5.500 | -0.489 | -0.439 | -0.309 |
| 5.375 | -0.228 | -0.178 | -0.048 | 5.375 | -0.168 | -0.118 | 0.012 |
| 5.250 | 0.210 | 0.260 | 0.390 | 5.250 | 0.266 | 0.316 | 0.446 |
| 5.125 | 0.680 | 0.730 | 0.860 | 5.125 | 0.737 | 0.787 | 0.917 |
| 5.000 | 0.721 | 0.771 | 0.901 | 5.000 | 0.742 | 0.792 | 0.922 |
| 4.875 | 1.107 | 1.157 | 1.287 | 4.875 | 1.112 | 1.162 | 1.292 |
| 4.750 | 1.581 | 1.631 | 1.761 | 4.750 | 1.581 | 1.631 | 1.761 |
| 4.625 | 2.088 | 2.138 | 2.268 | 4.625 | 2.088 | 2.138 | 2.268 |
See home price changes in your local market — Third Quarter 2023
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.19% | 5.85% | 5.33% | 31.01% | 38.45% | Tracking Tool |
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