Market Wrap-up
Rosie the Riveter: We get the bellwether December Chicago PMI at 9:45 am. The market is expecting an expansionary reading of 51.0. In November this index gave us a huge upside surprise of 55.8
Questions about my commentary? No problem, email me at [email protected] and I will do my best to answer your questions.
Interest rates increased yesterday after the bump lower on Wednesday, trading is thin. This time of year, the potential for strange movement can occur with not much behind the movements. This morning interest rates began a little higher, the 10 year at 8:30 am ET +4 bps from yesterday at 3.88%, MBSs began down 7 bps from yesterday. The end of 2023 today, good riddance for mortgage companies and LOs; next year will be better.
This year marked with volatility, the 10 year began the year at 3.74%, climbed to 5.0% in October then retreated to end 2023 at 3.89%. Through yesterday, the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield was down 12 basis points for 2023, its first yearly decline since 2020. The Fed drove markets in 2023, increasing rates every FOMC meeting until November when it ended, since then the consensus has swung around to fully expect rate cuts in 2024; the mantra adopted by markets, “higher for longer” drove rates higher until J Powell conceded the Fed may be finished increasing rates, the acronym changed to the “Fed pivot”. 2023 was good for equities, the DJIA rallied 5700 points, NASDAQ 4700, and the S&P +1.000. The bellwether 10 year note going to end the year where it started at 3.89%, same thing with MBS prices.
Most traders and investors believe 2024 will avoid recession, worst case a mild slowdown. Markets so sure that there won’t be a recession that if it were to occur rates will plummet and the stock indexes will face strong declines.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +10, NASDAQ +6, S&P +1. 10 year at 9:30 am +5 bp at 3.89%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -11 bps from yesterday’s close and -28 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am December Chicago purchasing managers index, expectations at 50.0 from 55.8, the index declined to 46.9; the weak index provided some support for interest rates.
Nothing left today, the bond and mortgage markets will end the day at 2 pm while the stock market will trade its regular hours. Next week’s calendar has key data, the December employment report, JOLTS job openings, FOMC minutes from the 12/13 meeting, December ISM manufacturing and service sector indexes.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
CENY 2 PM 12.29.2023
10 year note: 3.88% +4 bp
5 year note: 3.87% +2 bp
2 year note: 4.29% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.02% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.52 -11 bp (-28 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.55 +5 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.54 -13 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1132 +$0.0050
Dollar/Yen: 141.04
Dollar/Euro: $1.10
Dollar Index: 101.34 +0.11
Gold: $2071.80 -$12.40
Bitcoin: 42170.90
Crude Oil: 71.65
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EST) |
| INDU:IND
|
37,689.54 | -20.56 | -0.05% | +6.38% | +13.45% | 5:43 PM |
| SPX:IND
|
4,769.83 | -13.52 | -0.28% | +4.82% | +23.91% | 5:43 PM |
| CCMP:IND
|
15,011.35 | -83.79 | -0.56% | +5.28% | +43.26% | 5:16 P |
Poland
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,342.99 | -13.33 | -0.57% | +5.42% | +30.01% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
78,459.94 | -477.54 | -0.61% | +5.30% | +36.13% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,907.55 | -17.61 | -0.60% | +5.31% | +32.36% | 11:15 A |
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1039 | -0.0022 | -0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
141.0400 | -0.3700 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2731 | -0.0002 | -0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6812 | -0.0018 | -0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3243 | 0.0014 | +0.11% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8414 | -0.0034 | -0.40% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
16.9720 | 0.0176 | +0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.3634 | 0.0304 | +0.14% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.2910 | 0.0553 | +0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9360 | 0.0167 | +0.43% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
347.2200 | 1.5600 | +0.45% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
89.4717 | 0.9717 | +1.10% | 1:10 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.274 | -3.224 | -3.094 | 7.500 | -3.792 | -3.742 | -3.612 |
| 7.375 | -2.942 | -2.892 | -2.762 | 7.375 | -3.464 | -3.414 | -3.284 |
| 7.250 | -2.541 | -2.491 | -2.361 | 7.250 | -3.095 | -3.045 | -2.915 |
| 7.125 | -2.941 | -2.891 | -2.761 | 7.125 | -3.430 | -3.380 | -3.250 |
| 6.999 | -2.676 | -2.626 | -2.496 | 6.999 | -3.156 | -3.106 | -2.976 |
| 6.875 | -2.307 | -2.257 | -2.127 | 6.875 | -2.802 | -2.752 | -2.622 |
| 6.750 | -1.820 | -1.770 | -1.640 | 6.750 | -2.389 | -2.339 | -2.209 |
| 6.625 | -2.209 | -2.159 | -2.029 | 6.625 | -2.847 | -2.797 | -2.667 |
| 6.500 | -1.886 | -1.836 | -1.706 | 6.500 | -2.514 | -2.464 | -2.334 |
| 6.375 | -1.415 | -1.365 | -1.235 | 6.375 | -2.106 | -2.056 | -1.926 |
| 6.250 | -0.861 | -0.811 | -0.681 | 6.250 | -1.657 | -1.607 | -1.477 |
| 6.125 | -1.184 | -1.134 | -1.004 | 6.125 | -1.609 | -1.559 | -1.429 |
| 5.999 | -0.798 | -0.748 | -0.618 | 5.999 | -1.233 | -1.183 | -1.053 |
| 5.875 | -0.182 | -0.132 | -0.002 | 5.875 | -0.742 | -0.692 | -0.562 |
| 5.750 | 0.506 | 0.556 | 0.686 | 5.750 | -0.250 | -0.200 | -0.070 |
| 5.625 | 0.445 | 0.495 | 0.625 | 5.625 | 0.227 | 0.277 | 0.407 |
| 5.500 | 1.045 | 1.095 | 1.225 | 5.500 | 0.681 | 0.731 | 0.861 |
| 5.375 | 1.744 | 1.794 | 1.924 | 5.375 | 1.185 | 1.235 | 1.365 |
| 5.250 | 2.471 | 2.521 | 2.651 | 5.250 | 1.726 | 1.776 | 1.906 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.625 | -2.350 | -2.300 | -2.170 | 6.625 | -2.231 | -2.181 | -2.051 |
| 6.500 | -2.664 | -2.614 | -2.484 | 6.500 | -2.531 | -2.481 | -2.351 |
| 6.375 | -2.429 | -2.379 | -2.249 | 6.375 | -2.307 | -2.257 | -2.127 |
| 6.250 | -2.055 | -2.005 | -1.875 | 6.250 | -1.937 | -1.887 | -1.757 |
| 6.125 | -1.647 | -1.597 | -1.467 | 6.125 | -1.528 | -1.478 | -1.348 |
| 6.000 | -2.118 | -2.068 | -1.938 | 6.000 | -1.983 | -1.933 | -1.803 |
| 5.875 | -1.975 | -1.925 | -1.795 | 5.875 | -1.852 | -1.802 | -1.672 |
| 5.750 | -1.571 | -1.521 | -1.391 | 5.750 | -1.452 | -1.402 | -1.272 |
| 5.625 | -1.136 | -1.086 | -0.956 | 5.625 | -1.017 | -0.967 | -0.837 |
| 5.500 | -1.342 | -1.292 | -1.162 | 5.500 | -1.267 | -1.217 | -1.087 |
| 5.375 | -0.999 | -0.949 | -0.819 | 5.375 | -0.939 | -0.889 | -0.759 |
| 5.250 | -0.581 | -0.531 | -0.401 | 5.250 | -0.525 | -0.475 | -0.345 |
| 5.125 | -0.117 | -0.067 | 0.063 | 5.125 | -0.060 | -0.010 | 0.120 |
| 5.000 | 0.165 | 0.215 | 0.345 | 5.000 | 0.186 | 0.236 | 0.366 |
| 4.875 | 0.545 | 0.595 | 0.725 | 4.875 | 0.550 | 0.600 | 0.730 |
| 4.750 | 1.005 | 1.055 | 1.185 | 4.750 | 1.005 | 1.055 | 1.185 |
| 4.625 | 1.496 | 1.546 | 1.676 | 4.625 | 1.496 | 1.546 | 1.676 |
| 4.500 | 1.811 | 1.861 | 1.991 | 4.500 | 1.774 | 1.824 | 1.954 |
| 4.375 | 2.244 | 2.294 | 2.424 | 4.375 | 2.186 | 2.236 | 2.366 |
List of 10 stocks recently flagged as immediate sells. Take a look below; some of these names might surprise you…
| Ticker | Company Name | Quantitative Grade | Fundamental Grade | Total Grade |
| CHWY | Chewy, Inc. Class A | F | D | F |
| CLX | Clorox Company | D | D | D |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | F | D | D |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | F | F | F |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | D | D | D |
| NTR | Nutrien Ltd. | F | D | F |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | F | D | F |
| TSN | Tyson Foods, Inc. Class A | D | D | D |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | C | D | D |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B | F | D | D |
As we come up on the New Year, it is critical to dump stocks like this from your portfolio. If you want to make real money in the markets, you won’t likely do so with any of the stocks I listed above.
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | See Mortgage Rates | |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.19% | 5.85% | 5.33% | 31.01% | 38.45% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
Biggest price increases among the S&P 500
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 whose prices rose the most in 2023:
| Company | Ticker | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2021 |
| Nvidia Corp. | NVDA, | 239% | -50% | 68% | 24.9 | 34.4 | 58.0 |
| Meta Platforms Inc. Class A | META, -1.22% | 194% | -64% | 5% | 20.2 | 14.7 | 23.5 |
| Royal Caribbean Group | RCL, -0.37% | 162% | -36% | 68% | 14.3 | 14.9 | 232.4 |
| Builders FirstSource Inc. | BLDR, -1.02% | 157% | -24% | 95% | 14.2 | 10.7 | 13.3 |
| Uber Technologies Inc. | UBER, -2.49% | 149% | -41% | 47% | 56.9 | N/A | N/A |
| Carnival Corp. | CCL, -0.70% | 130% | -60% | -8% | 18.7 | 41.3 | N/A |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | AMD, -0.91% | 128% | -55% | 2% | 39.7 | 17.7 | 43.1 |
| PulteGroup Inc. | PHM, -0.26% | 127% | -20% | 81% | 9.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. | PANW, -0.24% | 111% | -25% | 59% | 50.2 | 38.0 | 70.1 |
| Tesla Inc. | TSLA, -1.86% | 102% | -65% | -29% | 66.2 | 22.3 | 120.3 |
| Broadcom Inc. | AVGO, -0.55% | 100% | -16% | 68% | 23.2 | 13.6 | 19.8 |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM, -0.92% | 98% | -48% | 4% | 28.0 | 23.8 | 53.5 |
| Fair Isaac Corp. | FICO, -0.46% | 94% | 38% | 168% | 47.1 | 29.3 | 28.7 |
| Arista Networks Inc. | ANET, -0.62% | 94% | -16% | 64% | 32.7 | 22.3 | 41.4 |
| Intel Corp. | INTC, -0.28% | 90% | -49% | -2% | 26.6 | 14.6 | 13.9 |
| Jabil Inc. | JBL, -0.45% | 87% | -3% | 81% | 13.5 | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| Lam Research Corp. | LRCX, -0.81% | 86% | -42% | 9% | 25.2 | 13.5 | 20.2 |
| ServiceNow Inc. | NOW, +0.57% | 82% | -40% | 9% | 56.0 | 42.6 | 90.1 |
| Amazon.com Inc. | AMZN, -0.94% | 81% | -50% | -9% | 42.0 | 46.7 | 64.9 |
| Monolithic Power Systems Inc. | MPWR, -0.23% | 78% | -28% | 28% | 49.1 | 27.3 | 57.9 |
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 whose prices fell the most in 2023:
| Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. Class A | Ticker | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2021 |
| Enphase Energy Inc. | ENPH, -1.97% | -50% | 45% | -28% | 31.9 | 48.8 | 60.1 |
| FMC Corp. | FMC, -0.41% | -49% | 14% | -43% | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.2 |
| Dollar General Corp. | DG, +0.30% | -45% | 4% | -42% | 18.3 | 20.2 | 21.2 |
| Moderna Inc. | MRNA, +0.67% | -45% | -29% | -61% | N/A | 38.7 | 9.3 |
| Pfizer Inc. | PFE, | -44% | -13% | -51% | 12.5 | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. Class A | EL, -0.88% | -41% | -33% | -60% | 45.6 | 39.8 | 46.4 |
| Paycom Software Inc. | PAYC, -0.40% | -33% | -25% | -50% | 25.4 | 42.3 | 73.9 |
| Albemarle Corp. | ALB, -3.31% | -33% | -7% | -38% | 11.2 | 7.8 | 38.9 |
| AES Corp. | AES, -0.52% | -33% | 18% | -21% | 10.2 | 16.4 | 14.7 |
| Etsy Inc. | ETSY, -1.06% | -32% | -45% | -63% | 31.3 | 44.9 | 64.0 |
| V.F. Corp. | VFC, -1.36% | -32% | -62% | -74% | 10.5 | 11.9 | 20.4 |
| Illumina Inc. | ILMN, -2.03% | -31% | -47% | -63% | 152.3 | 66.0 | 90.2 |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA, -1.84% | -30% | -28% | -50% | 7.7 | 8.1 | 10.4 |
| Hormel Foods Corp. | HRL, +0.53% | -30% | -7% | -34% | 20.3 | 23.9 | 24.6 |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | BMY, +0.18% | -29% | 15% | -18% | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 |
| NextEra Energy Inc. | NEE, -0.46% | -27% | -10% | -35% | 17.9 | 27.0 | 34.0 |
| Eversource Energy | ES, -0.39% | -26% | -8% | -32% | 13.6 | 19.2 | 22.1 |
| Devon Energy Corp. | DVN, -1.01% | -26% | 40% | 3% | 7.6 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| Insulet Corp. | PODD, -1.12% | -26% | 11% | -18% | 87.4 | 260.4 | 194.9 |
| Conagra Brands Inc. | CAG, +0.32% | -26% | 13% | -16% | 10.5 | 15.2 | 13.3 |