Market Wrap-up
PRZEMYSŁ: The December regional Empire Manufacturing Index was much weaker than expected, contracting by -14.5 versus expectations of a small expansion of +2.0. November Industrial Production was 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3% but a nice gain from October’s pace of -0.6%. Capacity Utilization was lighter than expected, 78.8 versus estimates of 79.1.
FED. RESERVE: NY Fed President John Williams pushed back on the markets’ assumption that the Fed would soon begin a rate cutting cycle by saying “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now, we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.” And that “One thing we’ve learned even over the past year is that the data can move and in surprising ways, we need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse.”
After strong declines in rates the last two days, today the 10 year unchanged, the 2 year note +7 bps. MBS prices where they traded at 9:30 am ET -14 bps.
The lower mortgage rates will improve the housing and mortgage markets, Redfin agrees. Three indicators showed activity was picking up, in the month of November, new for-sale listings and pending home sales climbed to the highest level in roughly a year, and home prices posted the biggest annual increase since late 2022. New listings in November rose by 1.3% from the previous month, to the highest level since October 2022. Pending home sales rose 2% in November as compared with the previous month, the company noted, and was at the highest level in a year. A Christmas present for mortgage lenders and LOs. The median U.S. home sale price was $408,732 in November, which was up 3.7% from a year ago. That’s the biggest increase since October 2022. 30 year mortgage rates according to CNBC 6.62%, more realistically 6.80%.
Next Week’s calendar: Monday Dec NAHB housing market index. Tuesday Nov housing starts and building permit. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Q3 current account deficit, Dec consumer confidence index, Nov existing home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q3 GDP, Dec Philadelphia Fed business index, Nov leading economic indicators. Friday Nov PCE, Nov personal income and spending, Nov durable goods orders, Nov new home sales, Dec University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Next Friday the bond market will close at 2 pm ahead of Christmas on Monday. Stocks trade all day.
Several key data points next week particularly Friday when the next major inflation report, the PCE will be released. Two consumer measurements also next week so not a lot of vacancies at trading desks ahead of Christmas.
This Week: The 10 year note rate declined 33 bps, the 2 year note -30 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased 70 bps. The DJIA +1,057, NASDAQ +410, S&P +115. Crude oil generally unchanged, +$0.35. Gold this week increased $24.00. The dollar declined this week, the index down 1.48 a sizeable decline, Bitcoin declined 2,109.
CENY @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.91% -1 bp
5 year note: 3.91% +1 bp
2 year note: 4.44% +4 bp
30 year bond: 4.00% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.31 -3 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.41 -9 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.51 -25 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1176 +$0.0086
Dollar/Yen: 142.09 +0.19 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0901 -$0.0092
Dollar Index: 102.50 +0.55
Gold: $2032.90 -$12.00
Bitcoin: 42,125 -823
Crude Oil: $71.67+0.09
DJIA: 37,305.16 +56.81
NASDAQ: 14,813.92 +52.36
S&P 500: 4719.19 -0.36
SOFR Data 12/15: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33777, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35162, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32542, INDEX: 1.11230391
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,320.45 | +7.89 | +0.34% | +4.59% | +32.10% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
77,647.13 | +239.99 | +0.31% | +5.37% | +37.55% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,879.77 | +6.61 | +0.23% | +5.30% | +34.49% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0895 | -0.0098 | -0.89% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
142.1500 | 0.2600 | +0.18% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2681 | -0.0086 | -0.67% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6699 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3380 | -0.0027 | -0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8705 | 0.0029 | +0.33% | 4:59 P |
| USD-CZK
|
22.4706 | 0.2528 | +1.14% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.6506 | 0.2469 | +0.90% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.9764 | 0.0584 | +1.49% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
351.1500 | 5.8200 | +1.69% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
90.3069 | 0.8196 | +0.92% | 10:45 AM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.2061 | 0.0137 | +0.08% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.189 | -3.139 | -3.009 | 7.500 | -3.701 | -3.651 | -3.521 |
| 7.375 | -2.850 | -2.800 | -2.670 | 7.375 | -3.378 | -3.328 | -3.198 |
| 7.250 | -2.438 | -2.388 | -2.258 | 7.250 | -2.992 | -2.942 | -2.812 |
| 7.125 | -2.923 | -2.873 | -2.743 | 7.125 | -3.407 | -3.357 | -3.227 |
| 6.999 | -2.590 | -2.540 | -2.410 | 6.999 | -3.112 | -3.062 | -2.932 |
| 6.875 | -2.189 | -2.139 | -2.009 | 6.875 | -2.730 | -2.680 | -2.550 |
| 6.750 | -1.697 | -1.647 | -1.517 | 6.750 | -2.276 | -2.226 | -2.096 |
| 6.625 | -2.175 | -2.125 | -1.995 | 6.625 | -2.817 | -2.767 | -2.637 |
| 6.500 | -1.748 | -1.698 | -1.568 | 6.500 | -2.442 | -2.392 | -2.262 |
| 6.375 | -1.283 | -1.233 | -1.103 | 6.375 | -2.014 | -1.964 | -1.834 |
| 6.250 | -0.715 | -0.665 | -0.535 | 6.250 | -1.503 | -1.453 | -1.323 |
| 6.125 | -1.046 | -0.996 | -0.866 | 6.125 | -1.433 | -1.383 | -1.253 |
| 5.999 | -0.306 | -0.256 | -0.126 | 5.999 | -0.778 | -0.728 | -0.598 |
| 5.875 | 0.089 | 0.139 | 0.269 | 5.875 | -0.507 | -0.457 | -0.327 |
| 5.750 | 0.804 | 0.854 | 0.984 | 5.750 | 0.044 | 0.094 | 0.224 |
| 5.625 | 0.836 | 0.886 | 1.016 | 5.625 | 0.523 | 0.573 | 0.703 |
| 5.500 | 1.510 | 1.560 | 1.690 | 5.500 | 1.170 | 1.220 | 1.350 |
| 5.375 | 2.204 | 2.254 | 2.384 | 5.375 | 1.654 | 1.704 | 1.834 |
| 5.250 | 2.885 | 2.935 | 3.065 | 5.250 | 2.134 | 2.184 | 2.314 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.875 | -3.116 | -3.066 | -2.936 | 6.875 | -2.994 | -2.944 | -2.814 |
| 6.750 | -2.774 | -2.724 | -2.594 | 6.750 | -2.655 | -2.605 | -2.475 |
| 6.625 | -2.395 | -2.345 | -2.215 | 6.625 | -2.276 | -2.226 | -2.096 |
| 6.500 | -2.747 | -2.697 | -2.567 | 6.500 | -2.609 | -2.559 | -2.429 |
| 6.375 | -2.428 | -2.378 | -2.248 | 6.375 | -2.305 | -2.255 | -2.125 |
| 6.250 | -2.047 | -1.997 | -1.867 | 6.250 | -1.928 | -1.878 | -1.748 |
| 6.125 | -1.626 | -1.576 | -1.446 | 6.125 | -1.507 | -1.457 | -1.327 |
| 6.000 | -2.075 | -2.025 | -1.895 | 6.000 | -1.936 | -1.886 | -1.756 |
| 5.875 | -1.688 | -1.638 | -1.508 | 5.875 | -1.565 | -1.515 | -1.385 |
| 5.750 | -1.268 | -1.218 | -1.088 | 5.750 | -1.149 | -1.099 | -0.969 |
| 5.625 | -0.828 | -0.778 | -0.648 | 5.625 | -0.709 | -0.659 | -0.529 |
| 5.500 | -0.871 | -0.821 | -0.691 | 5.500 | -0.793 | -0.743 | -0.613 |
| 5.375 | -0.455 | -0.405 | -0.275 | 5.375 | -0.394 | -0.344 | -0.214 |
| 5.250 | -0.028 | 0.022 | 0.152 | 5.250 | 0.028 | 0.078 | 0.208 |
| 5.125 | 0.433 | 0.483 | 0.613 | 5.125 | 0.489 | 0.539 | 0.669 |
| 5.000 | 0.278 | 0.328 | 0.458 | 5.000 | 0.300 | 0.350 | 0.480 |
| 4.875 | 0.710 | 0.760 | 0.890 | 4.875 | 0.715 | 0.765 | 0.895 |
| 4.750 | 1.179 | 1.229 | 1.359 | 4.750 | 1.179 | 1.229 | 1.359 |
| 4.625 | 1.679 | 1.729 | 1.859 | 4.625 | 1.679 | 1.729 | 1.859 |
See home price changes in your local market — Third Quarter 2023
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.19% | 5.85% | 5.33% | 31.01% | 38.45% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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