Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 December Coupon is down just -3 BPS at 3 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
November Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 199K versus estimates of 180K
October NFP remained at 150K
September NFP revised down by 35K from 297K to 262K
The rolling three month average is now 204K
Wages:
The national Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 12 cents to $34.10
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.2% on a MOM basis
Average Hourly Earnings increased by 4.0% versus estimates of 4.0% on a YOY basis
Unemployment Rate:
The headline Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.9% down to 3.7%
The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped from 7.2% down to 7.0%
The Labor Force Participation Rate increased from 62.7% to 62.8%
The Consumer: The preliminary December UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was very low but still higher than expected (69.4 versus estimates of 61.9) the good news was that the 12 month inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% to 3.1%.
A much stronger employment this morning and the increase in all the factors from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index temporally has taken the rate cuts that had been building in markets out of the picture. It shows how fragile the outlooks really are. It doesn’t take much to roil media and pundits for a new mind set that may last for a week. The recent decline in rates, particularly the last week, became emotional and unsustainable at the level of rates yesterday (4.15% for the 10 year), technically way over-done as momentum swept many off the fence. Media today using adjectives like, rates soared today, yes, the rates did increase but compare the rates to where they were a week ago, the 10 year note is ending the week unchanged from last Friday.
November employment rate expected unchanged at 3.9% declined to 3.7%. NFP jobs thought to be +180k increased 199K, private jobs +150K as was expected. Average hourly earnings increased from +0.3% increased +0.4% and up from +0.2% in October, year/year earnings at 4.0% unchanged from October. The participation rate at 62.8% as expected but increased from 62.7% in October.
The October employment was surprising given the once again short-term beliefs the Fed was surely going to cut rates. Still not conclusive though, the next key measurement could well swing the weak consensus around. The report opened the door for the overdue correction and consolidation after the 90 bp rate decline in six weeks and mortgage rates down to 7.05% from 8.00%. Not complaining, just saying at times emotions exceed common sense.
Also, this morning the mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index got as much notice as the employment report. The components dropped with huge changes from just two weeks ago when the final November data was reported.
Let’s cool it on the euphoria about how improved consumers see theoutlooks. Two weeks ago, this was the result for November. The key reason for the large gains solely due to the decline in interest rates in my opinion.
Next week: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and two key inflation readings (CPI and PPI). Monday no data but Treasury auctions, 3 year note and 10 year note. Tuesday Treasury 30 year bond auction, Nov NFIB small business optimism index, Nov CPI, Nov Treasury budget. FOMC meeting begins. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Nov PPI, FOMC policy decision. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Nov retail sales, Nov import and export prices. Friday Nov industrial production, Nov factory use (capacity utilization).
This week: The 10 year treasury this week +1 bp in yield; 6.5 30 year FNMA coupon this week declined 1 bps. The DJIA unch (+2), NASDAQ +99, S&P +9. The dollar index increased this week after being under pressure the last two week. Gold made new all-time highs a week ago, this week gold price -$0.71. Crude oil declined $3.07. Bitcoin, the big winner, increased 5,895.
MBS prices improved from 9:30 am, although the 10 year note at 4 pm is unchanged from 9:30 am. We have a defensive view with inflation next week, the FOMC and three treasury auctions.
CENY @ 4:00 PM 12.08.2023
10 year note: 4.24% +8 bp
5 year note: 4.25% +10 bp
2 year note: 4.74% +14 bp
30 year bond: 4.31% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 7.0: 102.78 -20 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.90 -5 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.70 -18 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.09 -17 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1646 +$0.0142
Dollar/Yen: 144.99 +0.86 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0767 -$0.0029
Dollar Index: 103.98 +0.44
Gold: $2018.80 -$27.60
Bitcoin: 44,234 +857
Crude Oil: $71.18 +$1.84
DJIA: 36,247.87 +130.49
NASDAQ: 14,403.97 +63.98
S&P 500: 4604.37 +18.78
SOFR Data 12/08: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33877, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35050, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.31487, INDEX: 1.11115498
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) | |||||||||||||||
| WIG20:IND
|
2,306.05 | +17.21 | +0.75% | +7.75% | +33.63% | 11:15 AM | |||||||||||||||
| WIG:IND
|
77,111.88 | +595.86 | +0.78% | +7.79% | +38.40% | 11:15 AM | |||||||||||||||
| WIG30:IND
|
2,864.46 | +22.38 | +0.79% | +8.55% | +35.89% | 11:15 A | |||||||||||||||
|
WALUTY |
Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) | |||||||||||||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.0763 | -0.0031 | -0.29% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-JPY
|
144.9500 | 0.8200 | +0.57% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.2547 | -0.0047 | -0.37% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.6579 | -0.0023 | -0.35% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3586 | -0.0013 | -0.10% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.8801 | 0.0047 | +0.54% | 4:28 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-CZK
|
22.6837 | 0.1339 | +0.59% | 4:30 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-SKK
|
27.9892 | 0.0795 | +0.28% | 4:30 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-PLN
|
4.0294 | 0.0147 | +0.37% | 4:30 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-HUF
|
353.6400 | -0.1900 | -0.05% | 4:30 PM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-RUB
|
91.8246 | -0.5720 | -0.62% | 10:48 AM | |||||||||||||||||
| USD-MXN
|
17.3494 | -0.1232 | -0.71% | 4:31 PM | |||||||||||||||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.875 | -3.178 | -3.128 | -2.998 | 7.750 | -3.350 | -3.300 | -3.170 |
| 7.750 | -2.774 | -2.724 | -2.594 | 7.625 | -3.586 | -3.536 | -3.406 |
| 7.625 | -3.190 | -3.140 | -3.010 | 7.500 | -3.293 | -3.243 | -3.113 |
| 7.500 | -2.906 | -2.856 | -2.726 | 7.375 | -2.937 | -2.887 | -2.757 |
| 7.375 | -2.526 | -2.476 | -2.346 | 7.250 | -2.544 | -2.494 | -2.364 |
| 7.250 | -2.074 | -2.024 | -1.894 | 7.125 | -2.752 | -2.702 | -2.572 |
| 7.125 | -2.421 | -2.371 | -2.241 | 6.999 | -2.439 | -2.389 | -2.259 |
| 6.999 | -2.082 | -2.032 | -1.902 | 6.875 | -2.010 | -1.960 | -1.830 |
| 6.875 | -1.633 | -1.583 | -0.918 | 6.750 | -1.574 | -1.524 | -1.394 |
| 6.750 | -1.098 | -1.048 | -1.113 | 6.625 | -1.754 | -1.704 | -1.574 |
| 6.625 | -1.293 | -1.243 | -0.700 | 6.500 | -1.350 | -1.300 | -1.170 |
| 6.500 | -0.880 | -0.830 | -0.191 | 6.375 | -0.897 | -0.847 | -0.717 |
| 6.375 | -0.371 | -0.321 | 0.451 | 6.250 | -0.405 | -0.355 | -0.225 |
| 6.250 | 0.271 | 0.321 | 0.478 | 6.125 | 0.032 | 0.082 | 0.212 |
| 6.125 | 0.298 | 0.348 | 1.038 | 6.000 | 0.487 | 0.537 | 0.667 |
| 6.000 | 0.858 | 0.908 | 1.715 | 5.875 | 0.995 | 1.045 | 1.175 |
| 5.875 | 1.535 | 1.585 | 2.393 | 5.750 | 1.466 | 1.516 | 1.646 |
| 5.750 | 2.213 | 2.263 | 2.909 | 5.625 | 2.145 | 2.195 | 2.325 |
| 5.625 | 2.729 | 2.779 | 3.387 | 5.500 | 2.775 | 2.825 | 2.955 |
| ELITE PROGRAM IS DESIGNED FOR BORROWERS WITH 700+ CREDIT SCORES, LTV’S 80% OR LESS, AND LOAN AMTS => THAN 125K | |||||||
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.163 | -3.113 | -2.983 | 7.500 | -2.999 | -2.949 | -2.819 |
| 7.375 | -2.926 | -2.876 | -2.746 | 7.375 | -2.773 | -2.723 | -2.593 |
| 7.250 | -2.595 | -2.545 | -2.415 | 7.250 | -2.445 | -2.395 | -2.265 |
| 7.125 | -2.215 | -2.165 | -2.035 | 7.125 | -2.065 | -2.015 | -1.885 |
| 7.000 | -2.417 | -2.367 | -2.237 | 7.000 | -2.283 | -2.233 | -2.103 |
| 6.875 | -2.143 | -2.093 | -1.963 | 6.875 | -2.020 | -1.970 | -1.840 |
| 6.750 | -1.786 | -1.736 | -1.606 | 6.750 | -1.667 | -1.617 | -1.487 |
| 6.625 | -1.389 | -1.339 | -1.209 | 6.625 | -1.270 | -1.220 | -1.090 |
| 6.500 | -1.798 | -1.748 | -1.618 | 6.500 | -1.660 | -1.610 | -1.480 |
| 6.375 | -1.478 | -1.428 | -1.298 | 6.375 | -1.355 | -1.305 | -1.175 |
| 6.250 | -1.089 | -1.039 | -0.909 | 6.250 | -0.970 | -0.920 | -0.790 |
| 6.125 | -0.664 | -0.614 | -0.484 | 6.125 | -0.545 | -0.495 | -0.365 |
| 6.000 | -0.963 | -0.913 | -0.783 | 6.000 | -0.823 | -0.773 | -0.643 |
| 5.875 | -0.594 | -0.544 | -0.414 | 5.875 | -0.471 | -0.421 | -0.291 |
| 5.750 | -0.172 | -0.122 | 0.008 | 5.750 | -0.053 | -0.003 | 0.127 |
| 5.625 | 0.293 | 0.343 | 0.473 | 5.625 | 0.412 | 0.462 | 0.592 |
| 5.500 | 0.268 | 0.318 | 0.448 | 5.500 | 0.347 | 0.397 | 0.527 |
| 5.375 | 0.680 | 0.730 | 0.860 | 5.375 | 0.741 | 0.791 | 0.921 |
| 5.250 | 1.128 | 1.178 | 1.308 | 5.250 | 1.185 | 1.235 | 1.365 |
See home price changes in your local market — Third Quarter 2023
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 2.19% | 5.85% | 5.33% | 31.01% | 38.45% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL |
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