MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (482) 12.02. 2023

Market Wrap-up

Taking it to the House: Construction Spending MOM increased in October by 0.6% versus estimates of 0.4%.

Rosie the Riveter: November ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.7 versus estimates of 47.6. Prices Paid were 49.9 versus estimates of 46.2.

The Talking Fed: Fed Chair Powell spoke twice today, 11 am and 2 pm. While he did make comments that separately would be considered “hawkish” (bad for pricing) and “dovish” (great for pricing), the bond market has clearly given more weight to the “dovish” commentary, particularly “The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt.”

Markets waited for Powell all week. True to form, and as expected he didn’t take another rate hike off the table, it was highly unlikely he would. It would be premature to conclude that the Fed has achieved a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy stance—or to speculate on when rate cuts may start, Powell said. Especially when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released Thursday, still shows inflation at 3.5% in October when calculated excluding the more volatile food and energy prices. “We have to restore price stability because price stability is really the bedrock of the economy,” saying the full effects of the 11 hikes have yet to be fully discounted in the economy. “Policy is at a restrictive level, meaning it’s holding the economy back. Inflation is still running well-above target, but it’s moving in the right direction. So, we think the right thing to be doing now is to be moving carefully.” Powell commented on consumer strength, “What’s been amazing is how strong consumer spending has continued to be,” We courteously disagree, consumers are at the end of their ropes with increasing debt increasing and eventually that will become an issue.

Financial markets didn’t blink, the stock indexes continued to increase and interest rate resumed their downward path after two sessions of digesting the previous declines. Stocks were trading near two-year highs, the 10 year note yield at the lowest since September and demand is increasing as rates decline. Mortgage rates approaching 7.00% (7.13%) almost 100 bps lower than six weeks ago. At 8 am this morning the 10 year note yield traded at 4.35%, now 4.22%, MBS prices began unchanged, now +37 bps.

Gold, after lagging for most of the last two years, is on the march higher, today at one point gold hit an all-time high price by $6.00/oz. Lower rates, global tensions and the end of the dollars dominance driving prices. Two years ago, we suggested gold would increase to $4,000/oz, we got a lot of laughs. $4K may be excessive but gold is doing what we thought back then, moving higher.

RIP for three folks this week: Roselyn Carter, Henry Kissinger, and today Sandara Day O’Connor, the first woman on the Supreme Court nominated by Ronald Regan. Mrs. Carter 99 years, Mr. Kissinger 100 years, and Ms. O’Connor 93 yrs.

Next Week: Next Friday November employment data. Monday NOV ISM services sector index. Tuesday October factory orders, Nov PMI services sector index, October JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps (should show increases), November ADP private jobs, Q3 productivity and unit labor costs, October US trade deficit. Thursday weekly jobless claims, October consumer credit. Friday November employment data.

This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 24 bps, the 2 year note down 40 bps, FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon this week increased 89 bps. The DJIA this week +856, NASDAQ +54, S&P +36. Crude oil decreased $0.93. Gold a huge increase, $87.00 this week. The dollar index essentially unchanged -0.03. Bitcoin jumped 971 this week.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM 12.01.2023

10 year note: 4.23% -12 bp

5 year note: 4.15% -12 bp

2 year note: 4.56% -14 bp

30 year bond: 4.41% -8 bp

30 year FNMA 7.0: 102.88 +26 bp (+22 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.93 +35 bp ( +35 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.75 +47 bp (+45 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.09 +38 bp (+38 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1240 -$0.0049

Dollar/Yen: 146.87 -1.33 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0877 -$0.0011

Dollar Index: 103.23 -0.27

Gold: $2090.40 +$33.20

Bitcoin: 38,339 +703

Crude Oil: $74.25 -$1.71

DJIA: 36,245.50 +294.61

NASDAQ: 14,305.03 +78.81

S&P 500: 4594.63 +26.83

SOFR Data 12/01: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33007, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34643, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.30272, INDEX: 1.10999798

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,285.98	+70.73	+3.19%	+6.34%	+29.42%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	76,319.06	+2,054.99	+2.77%	+6.62%	+34.20%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,837.57	+85.18	+3.09%	+7.57%	+31.91%	11:15 A

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0884	-0.0004	-0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	146.8200	-1.3800	-0.93%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2710	0.0086	+0.68%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6675	0.0070	+1.06%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3497	-0.0064	-0.47%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8692	-0.0060	-0.69%	4:59 P

 

USD-CZK	22.3195	-0.0077	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.6793	0.0104	+0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9760	-0.0241	-0.60%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	348.0400	-1.1300	-0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.0267	1.1199	+1.25%	1:05 PM

 

USD-MXN

17.1881

-0.1964

-1.13%

4:59 P

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.09% -0.06%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.48% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.50% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.50% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 12/1 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.48% -0.03%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.22% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.56% -0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/30   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% -0.04 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.88% -0.01 0.52 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.54% +0.03 0.62 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/29

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.80 +0.44   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.80 +0.44 UMBS 6.5 101.91 +0.27 GNMA 6.0 101.08 +0.33 GNMA 6.5 101.91 +0.22 Pricing as of: 12/1 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2130 -0.1150   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.555 -0.140 5 YR Treasury 4.144 -0.129 7 YR Treasury 4.217 -0.131 10 YR Treasury 4.213 -0.115 30 YR Treasury 4.393 -0.106 Pricing as of: 12/1 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.999	-3.594	-3.544	-3.414	7.875	-3.795	-3.745	-3.615
7.875	-3.258	-3.208	-3.078	7.750	-3.413	-3.363	-3.233
7.750	-2.846	-2.796	-2.666	7.625	-3.595	-3.545	-3.415
7.625	-3.219	-3.169	-3.039	7.500	-3.305	-3.255	-3.125
7.500	-2.938	-2.888	-2.758	7.375	-2.944	-2.894	-2.764
7.375	-2.550	-2.500	-2.370	7.250	-2.540	-2.490	-2.360
7.250	-2.077	-2.027	-1.897	7.125	-2.822	-2.772	-2.642
7.125	-2.510	-2.460	-2.330	6.999	-2.473	-2.423	-2.293
6.999	-2.177	-2.127	-1.997	6.875	-2.502	-2.452	-2.322
6.875	-1.703	-1.653	-0.975	6.750	-2.060	-2.010	-1.880
6.750	-1.155	-1.105	-1.185	6.625	-1.624	-1.574	-1.444
6.625	-1.365	-1.315	-0.780	6.500	-1.803	-1.753	-1.623
6.500	-0.960	-0.910	-0.227	6.375	-1.390	-1.340	-1.210
6.375	-0.407	-0.357	0.423	6.250	-0.916	-0.866	-0.736
6.250	0.243	0.293	0.509	6.125	-0.435	-0.385	-0.255
6.125	0.329	0.379	1.067	6.000	0.063	0.113	0.243
6.000	0.887	0.937	1.759	5.875	0.529	0.579	0.709
5.875	1.579	1.629	2.436	5.750	1.050	1.100	1.230
5.750	2.256	2.306	3.062	5.625	1.511	1.561	1.691

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.375	-3.657	-3.607	-3.477	7.500	-3.727	-3.677	-3.547
7.250	-3.314	-3.264	-3.134	7.375	-3.504	-3.454	-3.324
7.125	-2.938	-2.888	-2.758	7.250	-3.164	-3.114	-2.984
7.000	-3.180	-3.130	-3.000	7.125	-2.788	-2.738	-2.608
6.875	-2.908	-2.858	-2.728	7.000	-3.045	-2.995	-2.865
6.750	-2.543	-2.493	-2.363	6.875	-2.785	-2.735	-2.605
6.625	-2.134	-2.084	-1.954	6.750	-2.425	-2.375	-2.245
6.500	-2.189	-2.139	-2.009	6.625	-2.015	-1.965	-1.835
6.375	-1.874	-1.824	-1.694	6.500	-2.051	-2.001	-1.871
6.250	-1.480	-1.430	-1.300	6.375	-1.751	-1.701	-1.571
6.125	-1.033	-0.983	-0.853	6.250	-1.361	-1.311	-1.181
6.000	-1.271	-1.221	-1.091	6.125	-0.914	-0.864	-0.734
5.875	-0.902	-0.852	-0.722	6.000	-1.131	-1.081	-0.951
5.750	-0.466	-0.416	-0.286	5.875	-0.779	-0.729	-0.599
5.625	-0.006	0.044	0.174	5.750	-0.348	-0.298	-0.168
5.500	0.007	0.057	0.187	5.625	0.113	0.163	0.293
5.375	0.414	0.464	0.594	5.500	0.086	0.136	0.266
5.250	0.871	0.921	1.051	5.375	0.475	0.525	0.655
5.125	1.358	1.408	1.538	5.250	0.927	0.977	1.107