Market Wrap-up
MBS OVERVIEW
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 December Coupon is down -12 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.
Taking it to the House: October Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.487M units on an annualized basis versus estimates of 1.450M with single-family permits rising for the 10th straight month. Housing Starts were also a beat at 1.372M versus estimates of 1.350M
No news today other than housing starts and permits, both better than expected but on its own the data doesn’t usually get much attention. Treasuries, stock indexes, and MBSs all flat today ahead of a mushy week next week with Thanksgiving playing its role for low attendance.
The Fed and its leaders continue to play the same song, get inflation back to 2.0%, while markets where the money flows are convinced the Fed is done with hikes. Next week the minutes from the FOMC on 11/1 will be released, the substance not likely to change, most talking Fedsters recently continue to warn another increase is still a possibility even if under the surface the Fed doesn’t want to increase again, fearing another increase will end the economic growth and send the economy into a recession which presently is not in the picture. There are numerous intelligent and credible economists and analysts sending out warnings, about equal to those looking for continuing equity market gains.
Next Week’s calendar: Monday October leading economic indicators. Tuesday October existing home sales, FOMC minutes from 11/1. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, weekly jobless claims, October durable goods orders, University of Michigan final Nov consumer sentiment index. Thursday Thanksgiving. Friday no data and the bond and mortgage markets will close at 2 pm. FOMC minutes, weekly claims, and consumer sentiment headline next week; by Wednesday afternoon few will be manning the desks.
Trading next week with low volumes and not much key scheduled news could be volatile, particularly on Tuesday with the FOMC minutes, the main event next week along with jobless claims. We have held rate locks this week and want to continue but will reduce exposure going into next week.
This Week’s Changes: 10 year note yield down 18 bps, 2 year note -14 bps. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon increased 54 bps. The DJIA +664, NASDAQ +327, S&P +99. Gold increased $43.00 this week on dollar weakness. Crude oil declined $1.56/barrel. The dollar declined this week as interest rates declined, the index -1.94. Bitcoin after a big increase the week before held most of the recent gains, down 221 this week.
CENY@ 4:00 PM 11.17.2023
10 year note: 4.44% unch
5 year note: 4.45% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.91% +6 bp
30 year bond: 4.60% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 7.0: 102.30 +3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.21 +3 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.79 +12 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.20 +9 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2113 -$0.0307
Dollar/Yen: 149.66 -10.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0905 +$0.0053
Dollar Index: 103.89 -0.46
Gold: $1983.10 -$4.20
Bitcoin: 36,378 +360
Crude Oil: $75.71 +$2.82
DJIA: 34,947.28 +1.81
NASDAQ: 14,125.48 +11.81
S&P 500: 4514.02 +5.78
SOFR Data 11/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32541, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34395, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.28231, INDEX: 1.10770546
Poland
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,228.28 | +11.12 | +0.50% | +5.19% | +30.44% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
74,091.88 | +353.87 | +0.48% | +4.03% | +35.23% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,749.83 | +14.28 | +0.52% | +5.34% | +32.39% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0915 | 0.0063 | +0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
149.6300 | -1.1000 | -0.73% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2462 | 0.0048 | +0.39% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6515 | 0.0045 | +0.70% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3723 | -0.0032 | -0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8857 | -0.0030 | -0.34% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.2319 | 0.0039 | +0.02% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.4431 | -0.0963 | -0.43% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.6013 | -0.1587 | -0.57% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.0180 | -0.0107 | -0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
347.5400 | 0.2900 | +0.08% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
89.5080 | 0.2367 | +0.27% | 11:56 A |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.375 | -3.584 | -3.534 | -3.404 | 8.125 | -4.006 | -3.956 | -3.826 |
| 8.250 | -3.194 | -3.144 | -3.014 | 7.999 | -3.717 | -3.667 | -3.537 |
| 8.125 | -3.576 | -3.526 | -3.396 | 7.875 | -3.373 | -3.323 | -3.193 |
| 7.999 | -3.292 | -3.242 | -3.112 | 7.750 | -2.977 | -2.927 | -2.797 |
| 7.875 | -2.926 | -2.876 | -2.746 | 7.625 | -3.079 | -3.029 | -2.899 |
| 7.750 | -2.477 | -2.427 | -2.297 | 7.500 | -2.722 | -2.672 | -2.542 |
| 7.625 | -2.832 | -2.782 | -2.652 | 7.375 | -2.343 | -2.293 | -2.163 |
| 7.500 | -2.483 | -2.433 | -2.303 | 7.250 | -1.931 | -1.881 | -1.751 |
| 7.375 | -2.053 | -2.003 | -1.873 | 7.125 | -1.901 | -1.851 | -1.721 |
| 7.250 | -1.547 | -1.497 | -1.367 | 6.999 | -1.479 | -1.429 | -1.299 |
| 7.125 | -1.756 | -1.706 | -1.576 | 6.875 | -1.501 | -1.451 | -1.321 |
| 6.999 | -1.348 | -1.298 | -1.168 | 6.750 | -1.046 | -0.996 | -0.866 |
| 6.875 | -0.819 | -0.769 | -0.048 | 6.625 | -0.600 | -0.550 | -0.420 |
| 6.750 | -0.228 | -0.178 | -0.142 | 6.500 | -0.545 | -0.495 | -0.365 |
| 6.625 | -0.322 | -0.272 | 0.378 | 6.375 | -0.059 | -0.009 | 0.121 |
| 6.500 | 0.198 | 0.248 | 1.016 | 6.250 | 0.426 | 0.476 | 0.606 |
| 6.375 | 0.836 | 0.886 | 1.720 | 6.125 | 0.910 | 0.960 | 1.090 |
| 6.250 | 1.540 | 1.590 | 2.011 | 6.000 | 1.360 | 1.410 | 1.540 |
| 6.125 | 1.831 | 1.881 | 2.671 | 5.875 | 2.155 | 2.205 | 2.335 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -3.179 | -3.129 | -2.999 | 7.500 | -3.015 | -2.965 | -2.835 |
| 7.375 | -2.898 | -2.848 | -2.718 | 7.375 | -2.745 | -2.695 | -2.565 |
| 7.250 | -2.540 | -2.490 | -2.360 | 7.250 | -2.390 | -2.340 | -2.210 |
| 7.125 | -2.146 | -2.096 | -1.966 | 7.125 | -1.996 | -1.946 | -1.816 |
| 7.000 | -2.352 | -2.302 | -2.172 | 7.000 | -2.218 | -2.168 | -2.038 |
| 6.875 | -2.034 | -1.984 | -1.854 | 6.875 | -1.911 | -1.861 | -1.731 |
| 6.750 | -1.633 | -1.583 | -1.453 | 6.750 | -1.515 | -1.465 | -1.335 |
| 6.625 | -1.219 | -1.169 | -1.039 | 6.625 | -1.101 | -1.051 | -0.921 |
| 6.500 | -1.372 | -1.322 | -1.192 | 6.500 | -1.235 | -1.185 | -1.055 |
| 6.375 | -1.005 | -0.955 | -0.825 | 6.375 | -0.882 | -0.832 | -0.702 |
| 6.250 | -0.583 | -0.533 | -0.403 | 6.250 | -0.464 | -0.414 | -0.284 |
| 6.125 | -0.128 | -0.078 | 0.052 | 6.125 | -0.010 | 0.040 | 0.170 |
| 6.000 | -0.236 | -0.186 | -0.056 | 6.000 | -0.096 | -0.046 | 0.084 |
| 5.875 | 0.182 | 0.232 | 0.362 | 5.875 | 0.306 | 0.356 | 0.486 |
| 5.750 | 0.619 | 0.669 | 0.799 | 5.750 | 0.738 | 0.788 | 0.918 |
| 5.625 | 1.108 | 1.158 | 1.288 | 5.625 | 1.226 | 1.276 | 1.406 |
| 5.500 | 1.066 | 1.116 | 1.246 | 5.500 | 1.145 | 1.195 | 1.325 |
| 5.375 | 1.506 | 1.556 | 1.686 | 5.375 | 1.567 | 1.617 | 1.747 |
| 5.250 | 1.988 | 2.038 | 2.168 | 5.250 | 2.044 | 2.094 | 2.224 |
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