MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (478) 11.11. 2023

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 November Coupon is down -28 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

Domestic Flavor:

The Consumer: The preliminary (subject to revision) November UofM Consumer Sentiment Index tanked, falling to 60.4 from 63.8. 12-month inflation expectations shot higher still from 4.2% to 4.4% and 5-10 year inflation expectations rose to 3.2% from 3.0%

The Talking Fed: Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed can return US inflation to their goal without need to raise interest rates further but seemed to be in the “higher for longer camp” when he said “This is going to be something that is going to take some time.” S.F. Fed President Daly said “We’re going to be very forward-looking here, and so that’s why it’s too early to declare victory. But I don’t want to discount the fact that we’re in a good place because we can be able to move easily and agilely, depending on what the data brings.”

Across the Pond:

Great Britain: 3rd QTR GDP 0.0% versus estimates of -0.1%

Interest rates continue to trade in their wide ranges, this morning the 10 opened -5 bps, by 1 pm ET the 10 year note traded unchanged and MBS prices after being up 13 bps at 9:30 am declined, at 1 pm -17 bps from 9:30 am before recovering in the late hours. Comments from Powell yesterday that the Fed may not be finished with rate increases, saying the FOMC will take it one meeting at a time; it put a damper on the belief rate increases are over. That was yesterday, equity investors hang on with no increases.

The only data today, and this week, of interest was the mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The index and components continue to confirm consumers are not in a good place. Credit card debt increased $1.87B in Sept and likely even higher in October (released on 12/7), according to credit agencies 30% of consumers are late on payments. Consumer sentiment declined for the third month, current conditions declined, sentiment at a four-month low, the only component that improved was expectations and it barely moved.

This week had just two data points for the week, dominated by the consistent stream of Fed speakers.

Makes little difference to equity markets that the consumer is increasingly struggling. For the moment it is pushed to the background, how long will it be ignored? Not much longer, maybe through December but equities are headed for a huge decline. Today the DJIA over 300 points, NASDAQ +250. Since the mid-eighties, every major stock market reversal occurred after a strong rally.

The better news, 30 year mortgage rates down to 7.55% after bumping up to 8.0% two weeks ago.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday October Treasury budget. Tuesday October CPI. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, October retail sales, October PPI, Nov Empire State manufacturing index, Sept business inventories. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Oct import and export prices, October industrial production and factor use, Nov NAHB housing market index. Friday October housing starts and permits.

This Week: The 10 year note increased 9 bps to 4.61%, the 2 year note jumped 18 bps to 5.05%, the 30 year bond yield increased 21 bps. The DJIA +222, NASDAQ +320, S&P +47. This week Crude oil declined $2.96; gold dropped a whopping $61.00 on the strong dollar. The dollar had a strong week, the index increased 1.44.Bitcoin continues to increase as more firms agree to trade them in an ETF, this week up 2,051 to 36,599.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.62% unch

5 year note: 4.66% +1 bp

2 year note: 5.05% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.73% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 7.0: 101.66 unch (-17 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 100.33 -2 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 98.64 +1 bp (-25 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 99.28 +3 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2900 +$0.0069

Dollar/Yen: 151.54 +0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0689 +$0.0018

Dollar Index: 105.83 -0.08

Gold: $1939.70 -$30.10

Bitcoin: 36,599 +43

Crude Oil: $77.27 +$1.53

DJIA: 34,283.10 +391.16

NASDAQ: 13,798.11 +276.66

S&P 500: 4415.24 +67.89

SOFR Data 11/10: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32307, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34237, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.27159, INDEX: 1.10656035

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,141.09	-29.82	-1.37%	+9.23%	+26.66%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	71,545.81	-865.79	-1.20%	+7.47%	+31.47%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,638.30	-37.98	-1.42%	+9.03%	+27.96%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0686	0.0018	+0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	151.5200	0.1700	+0.11%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2227	0.0004	+0.03%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6361	-0.0006	-0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3801	-0.0007	-0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9027	-0.0002	-0.02%	4:59 PM

 

 

 

USD-MXN

17.6465

-0.1712

-0.96%

4:59 P

 

 

USD-CZK	22.9967	-0.0117	-0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.1918	-0.0481	-0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.1419	-0.0181	-0.44%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	353.0300	-2.8600	-0.80%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	92.3349	0.4802	+0.52%	11:02 AM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.625	-3.544	-3.494	-3.364	8.625	-4.068	-4.018	-3.888
8.500	-3.279	-3.229	-3.099	8.500	-3.804	-3.754	-3.624
8.375	-2.946	-2.896	-2.766	8.375	-3.486	-3.436	-3.306
8.250	-2.532	-2.482	-2.352	8.250	-3.102	-3.052	-2.922
8.125	-2.823	-2.773	-2.643	8.125	-3.220	-3.170	-3.040
7.999	-2.553	-2.503	-2.373	7.999	-2.936	-2.886	-2.756
7.875	-2.157	-2.107	-1.977	7.875	-2.564	-2.514	-2.384
7.750	-1.697	-1.647	-1.517	7.750	-2.170	-2.120	-1.990
7.625	-1.933	-1.883	-1.753	7.625	-2.145	-2.095	-1.965
7.500	-1.596	-1.546	-1.416	7.500	-1.799	-1.749	-1.619
7.375	-1.146	-1.096	-0.966	7.375	-1.394	-1.344	-1.214
7.250	-0.620	-0.570	-0.440	7.250	-0.963	-0.913	-0.783
7.125	-0.740	-0.690	-0.560	7.125	-0.855	-0.805	-0.675
6.999	-0.334	-0.284	-0.154	6.999	-0.446	-0.396	-0.266
6.875	0.208	0.258	0.992	6.875	-0.473	-0.423	-0.293
6.750	0.812	0.862	0.973	6.750	0.012	0.062	0.192
6.625	0.793	0.843	1.489	6.625	0.485	0.535	0.665
6.500	1.309	1.359	2.151	6.500	0.584	0.634	0.764
6.375	1.971	2.021	2.885	6.375	1.052	1.102	1.232

 

 

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-2.385	-2.335	-2.205	7.500	-2.219	-2.169	-2.039
7.375	-2.111	-2.061	-1.931	7.375	-1.957	-1.907	-1.777
7.250	-1.740	-1.690	-1.560	7.250	-1.590	-1.540	-1.410
7.125	-1.338	-1.288	-1.158	7.125	-1.188	-1.138	-1.008
7.000	-1.745	-1.695	-1.565	7.000	-1.607	-1.557	-1.427
6.875	-1.425	-1.375	-1.245	6.875	-1.302	-1.252	-1.122
6.750	-1.032	-0.982	-0.852	6.750	-0.913	-0.863	-0.733
6.625	-0.601	-0.551	-0.421	6.625	-0.483	-0.433	-0.303
6.500	-0.729	-0.679	-0.549	6.500	-0.590	-0.540	-0.410
6.375	-0.371	-0.321	-0.191	6.375	-0.248	-0.198	-0.068
6.250	0.065	0.115	0.245	6.250	0.184	0.234	0.364
6.125	0.526	0.576	0.706	6.125	0.645	0.695	0.825
6.000	0.526	0.576	0.706	6.000	0.667	0.717	0.847
5.875	0.933	0.983	1.113	5.875	1.056	1.106	1.236
5.750	1.394	1.444	1.574	5.750	1.512	1.562	1.692
5.625	1.879	1.929	2.059	5.625	1.998	2.048	2.178
5.500	1.909	1.959	2.089	5.500	1.989	2.039	2.169
5.375	2.350	2.400	2.530	5.375	2.411	2.461	2.591
5.250	2.834	2.884	3.014	5.250	2.890	2.940	3.070

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.56% +0.01%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.56% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.91% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.87% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.21% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.74% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% +0.01%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% -0.26 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.22 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/9   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.61% -0.25 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% -0.16 0.88 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.58% -0.22 0.65 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/8

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.58 -0.06   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.58 -0.06 UMBS 6.5 100.05 -0.27 GNMA 6.0 99.20 -0.09 GNMA 6.5 100.36 -0.20 Pricing as of: 11/10 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6260 -0.0060   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.056 +0.027 5 YR Treasury 4.661 +0.014 7 YR Treasury 4.684 +0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.626 -0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.741 -0.030 Pricing as of: 11/10 5:31PM EST

 

 

Current Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) Indexes Index For The Week Ending Year Ago Nov 03 Oct 06 Nov 04 6-Mo. TCM 5.51% 5.58% 4.57% 1-Yr. TCM 5.38% 5.44% 4.74% 3-Yr. TCM 4.79% 4.87% 4.54% 10-Yr. TCM 4.75% 4.75% 4.12% Federal Cost of Funds 3.743% 3.698% 1.762% 30-day SOFR (daily) 5.32131% 5.31838% 3.02454% Moving Treasury Average 5.012% 4.929% 2.049% Freddie Mac 30-yr FRM 7.76% 7.57% 7.08% Historical ARM Index Data

 

See home price changes in your local market — Second Quarter 2023

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	3.49%	4.60%	3.86%	29.26%	35.87%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL