Market Wrap-up
Inflation Nation: September Headline PCE MOM was higher than expected (0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%), YOY it was up 3.4% versus estimates of 3.4%. Core PCE (ex food and energy) increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis and by 3.7% on a YOY basis. Both matched market expectations. Services inflation excluding housing and energy accelerated to 0.4%, from 0.1% in the prior month.
Incomes and Spending: September Personal Incomes increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.4%. Private workers wages plunged to 3.9%, down from 4.5% and the lowest since Feb 2021. Wages of govt workers are up 7.8% YoY versus 7.4% in August and approaching the record high of 8.7% in Oct 2021. Personal Spending shot up by 0.7% versus estimates of 0.5%. This dropped the Personal Savings rate down to 3.4% from 4.0%.
The Consumer: The final UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised from 63.0 to 63.8.
October month/month core inflation increased a little, expected +0.1% increased +0.3%; year/year core PCE +3.7% down from +3.9%. Overall PCE year/year declined from 3.5% to 3.4%. The U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index headline was in line with forecasts but expectations were weaker as was the current conditions index.
Not much movement today in interest rates ahead of what is coming next week, one of the most important data weeks I can recall.
The war may be escalating, US attacked Iran proxy forces in Syria, internet and phones down in Gaza, 2.3 mill people disconnected to the outside world. Israel is slowly ramping up its offensive, the military signaled it was moving closer to an all-out invasion of Gaza, where it has vowed to crush the ruling Hamas group after its bloody incursion in southern Israel three weeks ago.
Next Week’s calendar is loaded: Tuesday October Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, Q3 employment cost index, August Case/Shiller home price index, October consumer confidence index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, FOMC policy statement, October ADP private jobs, S&P Global US manufacturing index, Sept construction spending, October ISM manufacturing index, Sept JOLTS openings. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Sept factory orders, Q3 productivity and unit labor costs. Friday October employment data, October ISM services sector index.
There are so many key economic reports next week and the war always lurking in the background, there is a strong possibly of high levels of volatility day to day next week.
The question we ponder today, will interest rates remain in the range that was traversed this week by the end of next week? The 10 had a 20 bp range from highs to lows this week. So many key economic reports and the FOMC will test nerves.
It is news today that Jamie Dimon announced he and his family will sell 1 million shares of JPMorgan Chase stock at the beginning of the year, at present value that is $140 million, according to what we read he and his family own 8.6 million shares and unvested performance share units relating to 561,793 shares and stock appreciation rights on 1.5 million shares, subject to the terms and conditions of each grant. Based on present values the total exceeds $1B.
This Week: The 10 year note yield declined 9 bps, the 2 year note dropped 6 bps; FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon price increased 48 bps. The DJIA lost 885, NADAQ -341, S&P -107. Gold price increased $24.00, crude oil declined $2.97. Bitcoin jumped 4,231, the dollar index increased 0.37.
CENY @ 4:00 PM 10.27.2023
10 year note: 4.83% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.77% -3 bp
2 year note: 5.02% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.01% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 7.0: 101.13 +10 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 99.37 +9 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 97.27 +9 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 97.87 +12 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.3173 +$0.0015
Dollar/Yen: 149.57 -0.83 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0567 unch
Dollar Index: 106.54 -0.06
Gold: $2017.00 +$19.60
Bitcoin: 33,681 -506
Crude Oil: $85.05 +$1.83
DJIA: 32,241.59 -366.71
NASDAQ: 12,643 +47.41
S&P 500: 4117.37 -19.86
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EDT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR-USD
|
1.0565 | 0.0002 | ||
|
USD-JPY
|
149.6600 | -0.7400 | ||
|
GBP-USD
|
1.2122 | -0.0007 | ||
|
AUD-USD
|
0.6335 | 0.0013 | ||
|
USD-CAD
|
1.3870 | 0.0039 | ||
|
USD-CHF
|
0.9023 | 0.0035 |
|
USD-CZK
|
23.3111 | -0.0339 |
|---|---|---|
|
USD-SKK
|
28.5148 | -0.0068 |
|
USD-PLN
|
4.2264 | 0.0116 |
|
USD-HUF
|
363.1600 | 0.7300 |
|
USD-RUB
|
94.3291 | 0.6564 |
|
USD-MXN
|
18.1142 | -0.0397 |
|---|
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.625 | -3.820 | -3.770 | -3.640 | 8.625 | -4.205 | -4.155 | -4.025 |
| 8.500 | -3.558 | -3.508 | -3.378 | 8.500 | -3.934 | -3.884 | -3.754 |
| 8.375 | -3.188 | -3.138 | -3.008 | 8.375 | -3.600 | -3.550 | -3.420 |
| 8.250 | -2.737 | -2.687 | -2.557 | 8.250 | -3.215 | -3.165 | -3.035 |
| 8.125 | -2.625 | -2.575 | -2.445 | 8.125 | -2.846 | -2.796 | -2.666 |
| 7.999 | -2.347 | -2.297 | -2.167 | 7.999 | -2.555 | -2.505 | -2.375 |
| 7.875 | -1.899 | -1.849 | -1.719 | 7.875 | -2.169 | -2.119 | -1.989 |
| 7.750 | -1.385 | -1.335 | -1.205 | 7.750 | -1.761 | -1.711 | -1.581 |
| 7.625 | -1.329 | -1.279 | -1.149 | 7.625 | -1.345 | -1.295 | -1.165 |
| 7.500 | -0.996 | -0.946 | -0.816 | 7.500 | -0.981 | -0.931 | -0.801 |
| 7.375 | -0.471 | -0.421 | -0.291 | 7.375 | -0.560 | -0.510 | -0.380 |
| 7.250 | 0.129 | 0.179 | 0.309 | 7.250 | -0.124 | -0.074 | 0.056 |
| 7.125 | 0.308 | 0.358 | 0.488 | 7.125 | 0.321 | 0.371 | 0.501 |
| 6.999 | 0.682 | 0.732 | 0.862 | 6.999 | 0.838 | 0.888 | 1.018 |
| 6.875 | 1.324 | 1.374 | 2.209 | 6.875 | 0.813 | 0.863 | 0.993 |
| 6.750 | 2.029 | 2.079 | 2.547 | 6.750 | 1.309 | 1.359 | 1.489 |
| 6.625 | 2.367 | 2.417 | 3.140 | 6.625 | 1.772 | 1.822 | 1.952 |
| 6.500 | 2.960 | 3.010 | 3.859 | 6.500 | 2.220 | 2.270 | 2.400 |
| 6.375 | 3.679 | 3.729 | 4.620 | 6.375 | 2.759 | 2.809 | 2.939 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.500 | -1.925 | -1.875 | -1.745 | 7.500 | -1.759 | -1.709 | -1.579 |
| 7.375 | -1.654 | -1.604 | -1.474 | 7.375 | -1.500 | -1.450 | -1.320 |
| 7.250 | -1.273 | -1.223 | -1.093 | 7.250 | -1.123 | -1.073 | -0.943 |
| 7.125 | -0.850 | -0.800 | -0.670 | 7.125 | -0.700 | -0.650 | -0.520 |
| 7.000 | -1.035 | -0.985 | -0.855 | 7.000 | -0.897 | -0.847 | -0.717 |
| 6.875 | -0.720 | -0.670 | -0.540 | 6.875 | -0.597 | -0.547 | -0.417 |
| 6.750 | -0.320 | -0.270 | -0.140 | 6.750 | -0.201 | -0.151 | -0.021 |
| 6.625 | 0.141 | 0.191 | 0.321 | 6.625 | 0.260 | 0.310 | 0.440 |
| 6.500 | 0.057 | 0.107 | 0.237 | 6.500 | 0.197 | 0.247 | 0.377 |
| 6.375 | 0.417 | 0.467 | 0.597 | 6.375 | 0.541 | 0.591 | 0.721 |
| 6.250 | 0.863 | 0.913 | 1.043 | 6.250 | 0.982 | 1.032 | 1.162 |
| 6.125 | 1.339 | 1.389 | 1.519 | 6.125 | 1.457 | 1.507 | 1.637 |
| 6.000 | 1.493 | 1.543 | 1.673 | 6.000 | 1.635 | 1.685 | 1.815 |
| 5.875 | 1.901 | 1.951 | 2.081 | 5.875 | 2.025 | 2.075 | 2.205 |
| 5.750 | 2.375 | 2.425 | 2.555 | 5.750 | 2.493 | 2.543 | 2.673 |
| 5.625 | 2.876 | 2.926 | 3.056 | 5.625 | 2.994 | 3.044 | 3.174 |
| 5.500 | 3.113 | 3.163 | 3.293 | 5.500 | 3.193 | 3.243 | 3.373 |
| 5.375 | 3.561 | 3.611 | 3.741 | 5.375 | 3.622 | 3.672 | 3.802 |
| 5.250 | 4.057 | 4.107 | 4.237 | 5.250 | 4.113 | 4.163 | 4.293 |
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