MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (467) 08.19. 2023

Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 September Coupon is currently up +14 BPS.

Domestic Flavor:

The Talking Fed: We head into this weekend with the start of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY Economic Symposium which will feature a ton of speeches from Powell and crew next week.

Across the Pond:

Japan: CPI 3.3% versus estimates of 2.5%

Eurozone: CPI YOY 5.5% versus estimates of 5.5%

Great Britain: Retail Sales MOM -1.2% versus estimates of -0.5%

The 10 improved a little today but ended well off the high yield very early this morning when it opened at 4.28% unchanged from yesterday, declined to 4.22% and is settling at 4.25% -3 bps; MBS prices followed with price improvements. There isn’t any change in what has been driving rates higher over the last three weeks, mostly over-extended heading into the weekend and with Jackson Hole coming next Thursday and Friday when we will hear more specifics from J Powell.

Interest rates increased across the globe this week, selling marks a turnabout in sentiment from earlier this year, when fears that the U.S. might fall into a recession prevailed, and the safe-haven appeal of government debt put a cap on how high long-term yields could go.

Next Week’s Calendar: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday July existing home sales. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Preliminary August PMI manufacturing and services indexes, July new home sales. Thursday Jackson Hole Symposium, weekly jobless claims, July durable goods orders. Friday U. of Michigan final consumer sentiment index, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:05 am.

This Week: The 10 year this week increased 10 bps, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon declined 48 bps. The stock indexes got tagged this week, DJIA -780, NASDAQ -344, S&P -94. Gold this week declined $28.00, crude oil down $1.81. The dollar continued to increase, the index at 103.40 up 0.53. Bitcoin got hammered, down 3,313 to 26,065.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.25% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.39% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.93% unch

30 year bond: 4.37% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.36 -2 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 97.66 -3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 97.91 -6 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2816 unch

Dollar/Yen: 145.37 -0.47 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0875 unch

Dollar Index: 103.40 -0.17

Gold: $1917.40 +$2.20

Bitcoin: 26,065 -1559

Crude Oil: $81.35 +$0.96

DJIA: 34,500.99 -26.16

NASDAQ: 13,290.78 -26.16

S&P 500: 4369.71 -0.65

SOFR Data 08/18: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.24608, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.14903, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.00061, INDEX: 1.09294090

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,014.55	-6.60	-0.33%	-6.79%	+18.53%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	68,084.44	-215.38	-0.32%	-4.62%	+23.24%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,498.73	-7.28	-0.29%	-6.36%	+20.02%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0873	0.0001	+0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	145.3900	-0.4500	-0.31%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2734	-0.0013	-0.10%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6406	0.0002	+0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3553	0.0007	+0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8820	0.0035	+0.40%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

17.0559

-0.0510

-0.30%

4:59 P

USD-CZK	22.0911	-0.0566	-0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.7074	-0.0016	-0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.1028	-0.0076	-0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	351.6700	-2.2800	-0.64%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	94.0108	-0.2671	-0.28%	1:01 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.37% +0.00%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.37%	0.00	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.76%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	7.03%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.31%	+0.01	0.00
5/1 ARM	7.18%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. VA	7.05%	-0.03	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/18

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.76% +0.01%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	7.09%	+0.13	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.46%	+0.12	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/17

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.16%	+0.07	0.68
15 Yr. Fixed	6.57%	+0.06	0.94
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.11%	+0.07	0.55
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/16

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.625

-4.060

-4.010

-3.880

8.625

-4.590

-4.540

-4.410

8.500

-3.894

-3.844

-3.714

8.500

-4.411

-4.361

-4.231

8.375

-3.555

-3.505

-3.375

8.375

-4.098

-4.048

-3.918

8.250

-3.465

-3.415

-3.285

8.250

-4.040

-3.990

-3.860

8.125

-3.403

-3.353

-3.223

8.125

-3.843

-3.793

-3.663

8.000

-3.295

-3.245

-3.115

8.000

-3.702

-3.652

-3.522

7.875

-2.921

-2.871

-2.741

7.875

-3.352

-3.302

-3.172

7.750

-2.605

-2.555

-2.425

7.750

-3.095

-3.045

-2.915

7.625

-2.553

-2.503

-2.373

7.625

-2.826

-2.776

-2.646

7.500

-2.344

-2.294

-2.164

7.500

-2.559

-2.509

-2.379

7.375

-1.908

-1.858

-1.728

7.375

-2.190

-2.140

-2.010

7.250

-1.457

-1.407

-1.277

7.250

-1.840

-1.790

-1.660

7.125

-1.313

-1.263

-1.133

7.125

-1.452

-1.402

-1.272

6.999

-1.083

-1.033

-0.903

6.999

-1.198

-1.148

-1.018

6.875

-0.554

-0.504

-0.374

6.875

-0.784

-0.734

-0.604

6.750

-0.031

0.019

0.149

6.750

-0.415

-0.365

-0.235

6.625

0.099

0.149

0.279

6.625

-0.134

-0.084

0.046

6.500

0.306

0.356

0.486

6.500

0.123

0.173

0.303

6.375

0.942

0.992

1.122

6.375

0.573

0.623

0.753

6.250

1.582

1.632

1.762

6.250

0.959

1.009

1.139

6.125

1.626

1.676

1.806

6.125

1.451

1.501

1.631

5.999

2.022

2.072

2.202

5.999

1.788

1.838

1.968

5.875

2.750

2.800

2.930

5.875

2.282

2.332

2.462

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-1.844	-1.794	-1.664	7.000	-1.711	-1.661	-1.531
6.875	-1.637	-1.587	-1.457	6.875	-1.515	-1.465	-1.335
6.750	-1.346	-1.296	-1.166	6.750	-1.227	-1.177	-1.047
6.625	-1.301	-1.251	-1.121	6.625	-1.182	-1.132	-1.002
6.500	-0.726	-0.676	-0.546	6.500	-0.592	-0.542	-0.412
6.375	-0.693	-0.643	-0.513	6.375	-0.561	-0.511	-0.381
6.250	-0.496	-0.446	-0.316	6.250	-0.377	-0.327	-0.197
6.125	-0.233	-0.183	-0.053	6.125	-0.114	-0.064	0.066
6.000	0.094	0.144	0.274	6.000	0.230	0.280	0.410
5.875	0.256	0.306	0.436	5.875	0.388	0.438	0.568
5.750	0.674	0.724	0.854	5.750	0.793	0.843	0.973
5.625	1.148	1.198	1.328	5.625	1.247	1.297	1.427
5.500	1.353	1.403	1.533	5.500	1.448	1.498	1.628
5.375	1.670	1.720	1.850	5.375	1.731	1.781	1.911
5.250	2.125	2.175	2.305	5.250	2.181	2.231	2.361
5.125	2.614	2.664	2.794	5.125	2.650	2.700	2.830
5.000	2.776	2.826	2.956	5.000	2.798	2.848	2.978
4.875	3.130	3.180	3.310	4.875	3.135	3.185	3.315
4.750	3.616	3.666	3.796	4.750	3.616	3.666	3.796
4.625	4.110	4.160	4.290	4.625	4.090	4.140	4.270
4.500	4.338	4.388	4.518	4.500	4.331	4.381	4.511
4.375	4.723	4.773	4.903	4.375	4.666	4.716	4.846
4.250	5.366	5.416	5.546	4.250	5.304	5.354	5.484