MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (466) 08.12. 2023

Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 September Coupon is currently down -29 BPS.

Inflation Nation: The headline July Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2% on a MOM basis and 0.8% versus estimates of 0.7% on a YOY basis. Also, we saw a big move from June’s YOY reading of only 0.2%. Core PPI (ex food and energy) also increased 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2% on a MOM basis and increased 2.4% versus estimates of 2.3% on a YOY basis which matches June’s level.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary August University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 71.6 in July down to 71.2 in August. This a was a little better than estimates of 71.0. The 5 year inflation expectations dropped from 3.0% to 2.9%.

 

July PPI increased today, year/year +0.8% against forecasts of 0.7 and up 0.6% from June. The increase mainly coming from the service components because of increases in certain service categories, highlighting the choppy nature of getting inflation back down to target. For all the comments, opinions and forecasts the outlook remains foggy. The idea the Fed may be ending its year long rate increases isn’t off the table, just as it is also not off the tab le that the Fed still has work to do. With every read on inflation the discussions elicit opinions in either case. Where you need to look is what markets are doing rather than being caught up in deciding, that is what markets are doing and not what traders and investors are talking about. Today after a few days of improvement on the 10 year the yield is back to 4.16% just 4 bps from the recent high one week ago.

The key to lowering inflation is declining core PCE (personal consumption expenditures), why Powell favors it as a more significant inflation read than CPI or PPI. Yearly CPI inflation has fallen from 9.1% to 3.0% yet rates remain high, core PCE in June 4.1%. The U.S. economy remains resilient with unemployment numbers relatively low, supporting an elevated service sector inflation rate. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s real-time GDPNow forecasts the U.S. economy to grow 4.1% in the third quarter.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday no data. Tuesday July retail sales, July import and export prices, August Empire state manufacturing index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, July housing starts and permits, July industrial production and capacity utilization. Thursday weekly jobless claims, August Philadelphia Fed business index. Nothing on Friday.

This Week: The 10 year note yield this week increased 12 bps; 6.0 30 year FNMA coupon lost 68 bps. The DJIA +213, NASDAQ -262, S&P -12. Gold price this week declined $32.00, crude oil still climbing up$0.53. The dollar index increased 0.48, decent move or the index. Bitcoin this week increased 305.

 

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.16% +6 bp

5 year note: 4.31% +8 bp

2 year note: 4.89% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.27% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.84 -32 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 98.20 -33 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 98.36 -45 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2371 +$0.0199

Dollar/Yen: 144.95 +0.19 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0949 -$0.0034

Dollar Index: 102.87 +0.34

Gold: $1945.00 -$3.90

Bitcoin: 29,378 -64

Crude Oil: $83.16 +0.34

DJIA: 35,281.40 +105.25

NASDAQ: 13,644.85 -93.14

S&P 500: 4464.05 -4.78

SOFR Data 08/11: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.18851, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.12945, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.97071, INDEX: 1.09181529

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,105.31	-25.27	-1.19%	+2.48%	+22.05%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	70,503.69	-394.04	-0.56%	+3.78%	+26.41%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,606.40	-26.62	-1.01%	+3.36%	+23.41%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0949	-0.0032	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	144.9600	0.2100	+0.15%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2696	0.0020	+0.16%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6496	-0.0019	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3440	-0.0009	-0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8767	-0.0001	-0.01%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.9766	-0.1095	-0.50%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.5159	0.0809	+0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0504	-0.0012	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	349.8400	-1.1700	-0.33%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	98.9432	1.6895	+1.74%	11:20 AM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.625	-4.158	-4.108	-3.978	8.625	-4.779	-4.729	-4.599
8.500	-3.996	-3.946	-3.816	8.500	-4.607	-4.557	-4.427
8.375	-3.676	-3.626	-3.496	8.375	-4.291	-4.241	-4.111
8.250	-3.577	-3.527	-3.397	8.250	-4.209	-4.159	-4.029
8.125	-3.533	-3.483	-3.353	8.125	-4.089	-4.039	-3.909
8.000	-3.387	-3.337	-3.207	8.000	-3.918	-3.868	-3.738
7.875	-3.040	-2.990	-2.860	7.875	-3.574	-3.524	-3.394
7.750	-2.737	-2.687	-2.557	7.750	-3.302	-3.252	-3.122
7.625	-2.666	-2.616	-2.486	7.625	-3.070	-3.020	-2.890
7.500	-2.458	-2.408	-2.278	7.500	-2.803	-2.753	-2.623
7.375	-2.070	-2.020	-1.890	7.375	-2.461	-2.411	-2.281
7.250	-1.606	-1.556	-1.426	7.250	-2.068	-2.018	-1.888
7.125	-1.545	-1.495	-1.365	7.125	-1.841	-1.791	-1.661
6.999	-1.327	-1.277	-1.147	6.999	-1.587	-1.537	-1.407
6.875	-0.855	-0.805	-0.675	6.875	-1.188	-1.138	-1.008
6.750	-0.413	-0.363	-0.233	6.750	-0.879	-0.829	-0.699
6.625	-0.319	-0.269	-0.139	6.625	-0.739	-0.689	-0.559
6.500	-0.150	-0.100	0.030	6.500	-0.506	-0.456	-0.326
6.375	0.379	0.429	0.559	6.375	-0.060	-0.010	0.120
6.250	0.929	0.979	1.109	6.250	0.267	0.317	0.447
6.125	1.098	1.148	1.278	6.125	0.863	0.913	1.043
5.999	1.414	1.464	1.594	5.999	1.160	1.210	1.340
5.875	2.114	2.164	2.294	5.875	1.644	1.694	1.824

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-1.842	-1.792	-1.662	7.000	-1.712	-1.662	-1.532
6.875	-1.630	-1.580	-1.450	6.875	-1.509	-1.459	-1.329
6.750	-1.266	-1.216	-1.086	6.750	-1.147	-1.097	-0.967
6.625	-1.072	-1.022	-0.892	6.625	-0.953	-0.903	-0.773
6.500	-1.029	-0.979	-0.849	6.500	-0.899	-0.849	-0.719
6.375	-0.991	-0.941	-0.811	6.375	-0.860	-0.810	-0.680
6.250	-0.764	-0.714	-0.584	6.250	-0.645	-0.595	-0.465
6.125	-0.513	-0.463	-0.333	6.125	-0.394	-0.344	-0.214
6.000	-0.350	-0.300	-0.170	6.000	-0.217	-0.167	-0.037
5.875	-0.190	-0.140	-0.010	5.875	-0.058	-0.008	0.122
5.750	0.232	0.282	0.412	5.750	0.351	0.401	0.531
5.625	0.699	0.749	0.879	5.625	0.797	0.847	0.977
5.500	0.890	0.940	1.070	5.500	0.982	1.032	1.162
5.375	1.211	1.261	1.391	5.375	1.271	1.321	1.451
5.250	1.658	1.708	1.838	5.250	1.714	1.764	1.894
5.125	2.139	2.189	2.319	5.125	2.175	2.225	2.355
5.000	2.243	2.293	2.423	5.000	2.263	2.313	2.443
4.875	2.601	2.651	2.781	4.875	2.605	2.655	2.785
4.750	3.081	3.131	3.261	4.750	3.081	3.131	3.261
4.625	3.600	3.650	3.780	4.625	3.580	3.630	3.760
4.500	3.707	3.757	3.887	4.500	3.697	3.747	3.877
4.375	4.117	4.167	4.297	4.375	4.060	4.110	4.240
4.250	4.759	4.809	4.939	4.250	4.697	4.747	4.877

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.19% +0.05%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.19% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.88% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.20% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.05% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.88% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/11 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.60% +0.12%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.96% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/10   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% +0.16 0.70 15 Yr. Fixed 6.51% +0.12 0.92 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.04% +0.15 0.66 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/9

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.33 -0.30   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.33 -0.30 UMBS 6.0 99.89 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 98.55 -0.27 GNMA 6.0 99.95 -0.20 Pricing as of: 8/11 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1600 +0.0530   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.895 +0.045 5 YR Treasury 4.303 +0.069 7 YR Treasury 4.252 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.160 +0.053 30 YR Treasury 4.267 +0.012 Pricing as of: 8/11 5:31PM EST