MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (464) 07.29. 2023

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 August Coupon is currently up +28 BPS.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The 2nd QTR Employment Cost Index rose by 1.0% vs. est. of 1.1%. In the 1st QTR it rose by 1.2%.

Inflation Nation: The Fed’s Key Measure of Inflation continues to expand as the Headline MOM PCE increased by 0.2% vs. est. of a contraction of -0.1%. YOY, PCE was up 3.0% vs. est. of 3.1%. Core PCE (ex food and energy) increased by 0.2% on a MOM basis which matched expectations. YOY, it was up 4.1% vs. est. of 4.6%.

Incomes and Spending: Personal Incomes MOM were up 0.3% vs. est. of 0.5%, the prior month was revised higher from 0.4% to 0.5%. Personal Spending was up 0.5% vs. est. of 0.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The revised/final July UofM Consumer Sentiment Index hit 71.6 vs. the preliminary release of 72.6. 5YR inflation expectations dropped from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at -0.1% but announced that they would change their Yield Curve Control policy by moving from 0.5% to 1.0%.

The 10 year note increased 14 bps yesterday, MBSs were down 60 bps: today the 10 yield down 4 bps and MBS prices 23 bps. Yesterday the DJIA broke a 13-day run closing lower, today closing better. Volatility high and we expect more of the same next week with manufacturing and service sector data for July. Treasury yields dropped on the data releases this morning then spend the rest of the day drifting sideways.

This morning the employment cost index, a broad gauge of wages and benefits, increased 1% in the second quarter, marking the slowest advance since 2021, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. June PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 3% from a year earlier in June, the smallest increase in more than two years. Core prices — which exclude food and energy and are regarded as a more reliable signal of underlying inflation — advanced by a less-than-expected 4.1%, also the least since 2021. Based on today’s data inflation dropping offsetting somewhat the big increase in Q2 GDP, 1.5% expected, reported +2.4%.

Next week: Monday July Chicago purchasing mgrs. index. Tuesday July ISM manufacturing index, June construction spending, June JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA apps, July ADP private jobs. Thursday Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, June factory orders, July ISM services sector index. Friday July employment data.

This week: The 10 year note increased 12 bps, MBS prices down -33. DJIA +769, NASDAQ +284, S&P +46. Gold lost $6.00 this week, crude oil increased $3.44.The dollar gained this week after a few weeks of declining, the index increased 0.55, Bitcoin declined 674.

 

PRICES 4:00 PM

10 year note: 3.96% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.18% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.88% -5 bp

30 year bond: 4.02% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.62 +31 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.27 +34 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.38 +31 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1491 -$0.0252

Dollar/Yen: 141.07 +1.58 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1019 +$0.0040

Dollar Index: 101.64 -0.13

Gold: $1958.30 +$12.60

Bitcoin: 29,288 +171

Crude Oil: $80.38 +$0.30

DJIA: 34,459.29 +176.57

NASDAQ: 14,316.66 +266.55

S&P 500: 4582.23 +44.82

SOFR Data 07/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.07838, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.07714, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.90532, INDEX: 1.08956696

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,189.24	-0.34	-0.02%	+6.25%	+27.20%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	71,965.44	-20.99	-0.03%	+6.96%	+30.83%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,696.33	+0.26	+0.01%	+6.39%	+28.09%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1016	0.0037	+0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	141.1600	1.6800	+1.20%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2851	0.0055	+0.43%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6650	-0.0059	-0.88%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3237	0.0013	+0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8698	0.0007	+0.08%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.7629	-0.1410	-0.64%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.3469	-0.0939	-0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0055	-0.0233	-0.58%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	348.8700	0.6700	+0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.8665	1.1766	+1.30%	11:17 AM

 

USD-MXN

16.6870

-0.1864

-1.10%

4:59 PM

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.05% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.05% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.40% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.70% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.10% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.95% -0.09 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.68% -0.14 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.40% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/27   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% 0.00 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.01 0.75 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% +0.01 0.64 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/26

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.28 +0.36   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.28 +0.36 UMBS 6.0 100.59 +0.27 GNMA 5.5 99.39 +0.33 GNMA 6.0 100.48 +0.22 Pricing as of: 7/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.9570 -0.0450   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.881 -0.045 5 YR Treasury 4.181 -0.054 7 YR Treasury 4.076 -0.061 10 YR Treasury 3.957 -0.045 30 YR Treasury 4.013 -0.027 Pricing as of: 7/28 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.125	-3.930	-3.880	-3.750	8.125	-4.489	-4.439	-4.309
8.000	-3.743	-3.693	-3.563	8.000	-4.288	-4.238	-4.108
7.875	-3.408	-3.358	-3.228	7.875	-3.957	-3.907	-3.777
7.750	-3.162	-3.112	-2.982	7.750	-3.740	-3.690	-3.560
7.625	-3.108	-3.058	-2.928	7.625	-3.547	-3.497	-3.367
7.500	-3.063	-3.013	-2.883	7.500	-3.450	-3.400	-3.270
7.375	-2.676	-2.626	-2.496	7.375	-3.101	-3.051	-2.921
7.250	-2.286	-2.236	-2.106	7.250	-2.774	-2.724	-2.594
7.125	-2.248	-2.198	-2.068	7.125	-2.599	-2.549	-2.419
6.999	-2.067	-2.017	-1.887	6.999	-2.397	-2.347	-2.217
6.875	-1.613	-1.563	-1.433	6.875	-2.012	-1.962	-1.832
6.750	-1.258	-1.208	-1.078	6.750	-1.758	-1.708	-1.578
6.625	-1.201	-1.151	-1.021	6.625	-1.694	-1.644	-1.514
6.500	-1.062	-1.012	-0.882	6.500	-1.520	-1.470	-1.340
6.375	-0.638	-0.588	-0.458	6.375	-1.186	-1.136	-1.006
6.250	-0.064	-0.014	0.116	6.250	-0.754	-0.704	-0.574
6.125	-0.008	0.042	0.172	6.125	-0.268	-0.218	-0.088
5.999	0.197	0.247	0.377	5.999	-0.071	-0.021	0.109
5.875	0.876	0.926	1.056	5.875	0.410	0.460	0.590
5.750	1.545	1.595	1.725	5.750	0.812	0.862	0.992
5.625	1.605	1.655	1.785	5.625	1.403	1.453	1.583
5.500	2.054	2.104	2.234	5.500	1.809	1.859	1.989

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.631	-2.581	-2.451	7.000	-2.501	-2.451	-2.321
6.875	-2.421	-2.371	-2.241	6.875	-2.299	-2.249	-2.119
6.750	-2.061	-2.011	-1.881	6.750	-1.942	-1.892	-1.762
6.625	-1.852	-1.802	-1.672	6.625	-1.733	-1.683	-1.553
6.500	-1.804	-1.754	-1.624	6.500	-1.674	-1.624	-1.494
6.375	-1.765	-1.715	-1.585	6.375	-1.634	-1.584	-1.454
6.250	-1.521	-1.471	-1.341	6.250	-1.402	-1.352	-1.222
6.125	-1.126	-1.076	-0.946	6.125	-1.007	-0.957	-0.827
6.000	-0.997	-0.947	-0.817	6.000	-0.864	-0.814	-0.684
5.875	-0.947	-0.897	-0.767	5.875	-0.815	-0.765	-0.635
5.750	-0.539	-0.489	-0.359	5.750	-0.420	-0.370	-0.240
5.625	-0.106	-0.056	0.074	5.625	-0.008	0.042	0.172
5.500	0.043	0.093	0.223	5.500	0.135	0.185	0.315
5.375	0.332	0.382	0.512	5.375	0.392	0.442	0.572
5.250	0.774	0.824	0.954	5.250	0.831	0.881	1.011
5.125	1.261	1.311	1.441	5.125	1.317	1.367	1.497
5.000	1.411	1.461	1.591	5.000	1.432	1.482	1.612
4.875	1.777	1.827	1.957	4.875	1.781	1.831	1.961
4.750	2.254	2.304	2.434	4.750	2.254	2.304	2.434
4.625	2.774	2.824	2.954	4.625	2.754	2.804	2.934
4.500	2.887	2.937	3.067	4.500	2.877	2.927	3.057
4.375	3.297	3.347	3.477	4.375	3.240	3.290	3.420