MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (462) 07.15. 2023

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 August Coupon is currently down -28 BPS.

Genco Olive Oil: Import and Export Prices both dropped more than expected. Import Prices MOM were down -0.2% vs. est. of -0.1% and were down -6.1% on a YOY basis. Export Prices MOM were down -0.9% vs. est. of -0.2% and were down -12% on a YOY basis.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary July UofM Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 72.6 vs. est. of 65.5. (highest since September 2021) The 1YR inflation expectations increased from 3.0% to 3.1%

The week was a scramble, from two 25 bp increases that were baked on the cake this time last week, to one more cut now based on three inflation reads that were showing less inflation than was thought. June CPI, PPI and June import and export prices released this morning. But there may be a little fly in the cake, the very strong consumer sentiment index released this morning indicating consumers remain aggressively strong, that doesn’t sit well with the Fed continuing to fret over increasing wages and less unemployment. Powell has repeatedly talked at length about wages and jobs slowing to help his 2.0% inflation goal. One day of reversal after the declines this week should bring out the naysayers, At the end of a week marked by optimism the Fed would be closer to ending its interest-rate hikes, a report showed consumer sentiment soared to an almost two-year high. The variable for consumer spending remains employment, which is still solid.

Next Week: July Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday June retail sales, June industrial production and factory use, May business inventories, July NAHB housing market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, June housing starts and permits. Thursday weekly jobless claims, June existing home sales, July Philadelphia Fed business index, June leading economic indicators.

This Week: The 10 year note yield -14 bps, FNMA 6,0 coupon +83 bps. The DJIA +774, NASDAQ +453, S&P +106. Crude oil this week +$1.57, gold +$29.00.The dollar strength continued to drain, the index dropped from 102.27 to 99.95 -2.32. Bitcoin had a volatile trade this week but ended -0.95.

Nothing now that suggests rates are about to increase after the declines this week, but it is reasonable for the rate markets to consider the turn this week, like digesting a huge meal and prior to the dessert. The data next week centered on the housing sector that is red hot and now with mortgage rates edging lower the sector will continue to improve.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM 07.14.2023

10 year note: 3.82% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.04% +8 bp

2 year note: 4.74% +8 bp

30 year bond: 3.92% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.89 -34 bp (-18 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.66 -37 bp (-17 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.63 -33 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1411 -$0.0100

Dollar/Yen: 138.86 +0.81 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1228 unch

Dollar Index: 99.95 +0.18

Gold: $1960.50 -$3.30

Bitcoin: 30,104 -1273

Crude Oil: $75.40 -$1.50

DJIA: 34,509.03 +113.89

NASDAQ: 14,113.70 -24.87

S&P 500: 4505.42 -4.62

SOFR Data 07/14: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.06827, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.03451, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.84398, INDEX: 1.08742019

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,127.08	+9.55	+0.45%	+2.47%	+31.79%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	70,242.38	+502.02	+0.72%	+4.83%	+36.61%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,615.50	+15.04	+0.58%	+2.90%	+32.43%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.1228	0.0002	+0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	138.8000	0.7500	+0.54%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3093	-0.0043	-0.33%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6838	-0.0051	-0.74%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3216	0.0106	+0.81%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8620	0.0032	+0.37%	4:59 P

 

USD-CZK	21.1687	-0.0061	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.8318	-0.0036	-0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9661	0.0077	+0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	333.2300	0.2500	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	90.3317	0.1507	+0.17%	10:39 AM

 

USD-MXN

16.7529

-0.0874

-0.52%

4:59 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.125	-4.144	-4.094	-3.964	8.125	-4.745	-4.695	-4.565
8.000	-3.937	-3.887	-3.757	8.000	-4.527	-4.477	-4.347
7.875	-3.612	-3.562	-3.432	7.875	-4.206	-4.156	-4.026
7.750	-3.367	-3.317	-3.187	7.750	-3.968	-3.918	-3.788
7.625	-3.223	-3.173	-3.043	7.625	-3.743	-3.693	-3.563
7.500	-3.038	-2.988	-2.858	7.500	-3.512	-3.462	-3.332
7.375	-2.680	-2.630	-2.500	7.375	-3.169	-3.119	-2.989
7.250	-2.535	-2.485	-2.355	7.250	-3.051	-3.001	-2.871
7.125	-2.201	-2.151	-2.021	7.125	-2.635	-2.585	-2.455
6.999	-2.134	-2.084	-1.954	6.999	-2.551	-2.501	-2.371
6.875	-1.726	-1.676	-1.546	6.875	-2.187	-2.137	-2.007
6.750	-1.454	-1.404	-1.274	6.750	-2.046	-1.996	-1.866
6.625	-1.289	-1.239	-1.109	6.625	-1.828	-1.778	-1.648
6.500	-1.251	-1.201	-1.071	6.500	-1.772	-1.722	-1.592
6.375	-0.761	-0.711	-0.581	6.375	-1.386	-1.336	-1.206
6.250	-0.394	-0.344	-0.214	6.250	-1.132	-1.082	-0.952
6.125	-0.335	-0.285	-0.155	6.125	-0.666	-0.616	-0.486
5.999	-0.229	-0.179	-0.049	5.999	-0.526	-0.476	-0.346
5.875	0.406	0.456	0.586	5.875	-0.045	0.005	0.135
5.750	0.988	1.038	1.168	5.750	0.297	0.347	0.477
5.625	1.037	1.087	1.217	5.625	0.900	0.950	1.080
5.500	1.463	1.513	1.643	5.500	1.258	1.308	1.438

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.557	-2.507	-2.377	7.000	-2.448	-2.398	-2.268
6.875	-2.334	-2.284	-2.154	6.875	-2.228	-2.178	-2.048
6.750	-2.057	-2.007	-1.877	6.750	-1.970	-1.920	-1.790
6.625	-2.017	-1.967	-1.837	6.625	-1.932	-1.882	-1.752
6.500	-1.970	-1.920	-1.790	6.500	-1.870	-1.820	-1.690
6.375	-1.932	-1.882	-1.752	6.375	-1.828	-1.778	-1.648
6.250	-1.723	-1.673	-1.543	6.250	-1.639	-1.589	-1.459
6.125	-1.494	-1.444	-1.314	6.125	-1.412	-1.362	-1.232
6.000	-1.464	-1.414	-1.284	6.000	-1.356	-1.306	-1.176
5.875	-1.377	-1.327	-1.197	5.875	-1.274	-1.224	-1.094
5.750	-0.957	-0.907	-0.777	5.750	-0.874	-0.824	-0.694
5.625	-0.549	-0.499	-0.369	5.625	-0.488	-0.438	-0.308
5.500	-0.375	-0.325	-0.195	5.500	-0.313	-0.263	-0.133
5.375	-0.053	-0.003	0.127	5.375	-0.016	0.034	0.164
5.250	0.380	0.430	0.560	5.250	0.398	0.448	0.578
5.125	0.819	0.869	0.999	5.125	0.795	0.845	0.975
5.000	0.911	0.961	1.091	5.000	0.926	0.976	1.106
4.875	1.239	1.289	1.419	4.875	1.217	1.267	1.397
4.750	1.706	1.756	1.886	4.750	1.667	1.717	1.847
4.625	2.191	2.241	2.371	4.625	2.149	2.199	2.329
4.500	2.285	2.335	2.465	4.500	2.206	2.256	2.386
4.375	2.679	2.729	2.859	4.375	2.591	2.641	2.771

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.89% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.51% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.89% +0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 7/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.30% +0.02%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.96% +0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/13   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.58% -0.49 0.74 15 Yr. Fixed 6.42% +0.12 1.22 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.04% +0.09 0.59 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 7/12

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.59 -0.44   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.59 -0.44 UMBS 6.0 100.84 -0.39 GNMA 5.5 99.59 -0.36 GNMA 6.0 100.63 -0.33 Pricing as of: 7/14 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8280 +0.0610   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.764 +0.132 5 YR Treasury 4.042 +0.095 7 YR Treasury 3.938 +0.075 10 YR Treasury 3.828 +0.061 30 YR Treasury 3.930 +0.024 Pricing as of: 7/14 5:31PM EST