Market Wrap-up
MBS prices improved from 9:30 am ET levels, the 10 still higher but 2 bps lower than 9:30 am at 3.74%. There were data points today. Markets looking toward next week with FOMC on Wednesday and inflation data with may CPI and PPI released on Tuesday and Wednesday. The consensus is the Fed will pause, the future rests with inflation whether interest rates stay at these levels or break above technical resistance at 3.80%. Chair Jerome Powell had hinted at a suspension of the tightening campaign last month, suggesting that he favored waiting to evaluate the lagged effects of past moves and the impact of recent bank failures on credit availability. Looking at several economists today, the outlook divided with increasing forecasts but tilting to no more increases this year.
Next Week: Monday May Treasury budget balance, 3 yr and 10 yr auctions. Tuesday May CPI, NFIB small business optimism index, 30 yr bond auction. Wednesday FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference, weekly MBA mortgage applications, May PPI. Thursday May retail sales, June Philadelphia Fed business index, weekly jobless claims, May industrial production and capacity utilization, April business inventories. Friday mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. Treasury will sell $296B worth of debt, starting with $123B worth of bills and $72B worth of notes on Monday with the remainder set for auction on Tuesday. Beside the US data and the Fed, the ECB meeting occurs next week with expectations it will increase its base rate by 25 bps.
This Week: The 10 yr note yield increased 5 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 yr coupon this week increased 2 bps. The DJIA +114, NASDAQ +18, S&P +16. Crude oil declined $1.82; gold increased $9.00 on the weaker dollar. The dollar softened, the index -0.47. Bitcoin in a wild week ended down 841.
After a week with little news, next week is overloaded with key news (see above). The potential of a big move in interest rates and other US financial markets is high through the entire week. If the 10 breaks above 3.80% it has the potential to climb to 4.00%, although we don’t expect that kind of increase next week.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM 06.09.2023
10 yr note: 3.74% +2 bp
5 yr note: 3.94% +7 bp
2 Yr note: 4.62% +9 bp
30 yr bond: 3.89% unch
Libor Rates: 1 mo 5.222%; 3 mo 5.540%; 6 mo 5.657%; 1 yr 5.788% (6/8/23)
30 yr FNMA 6.0: 101.14 -11 bp (+9 bp frm 9:30 am)
30 yr FNMA 5.5: 99.84 -19 bp (+6 bp frm 9:30 am)
30 yr GNMA 5.5: 99.89 -16 bp (+12 bp frm 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.126 +$0.0163
Dollar/Yen: 139.46 +0.53
Dollar/Euro: $1.00748 -$0.0037
Dollar Index: 103.57 +0.23
Gold: $1974.80 -3.80
Bitcoin: 26,436 -201
Crude Oil: $70.22 -$1.07
DJIA: 33,876.78 +43.17
NASDAQ: 13,259.14 +20.62
S&P 500: 4298.86 +4.93
SOFR Data 06/09: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.06696, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.90507, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.68276, INDEX: 1.08208761
Poland
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,050.99 | +14.68 | +0.72% | +6.71% | +14.40% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
66,531.56 | +437.81 | +0.66% | +5.38% | +18.66% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,513.56 | +17.65 | +0.71% | +5.97% | +14.42% | 11:15 A |
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0749 | -0.0033 | -0.31% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
139.4000 | 0.4800 | +0.35% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2572 | 0.0012 | +0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6742 | 0.0026 | +0.39% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3340 | -0.0017 | -0.13% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.9033 | 0.0043 | +0.48% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.0499 | 0.1026 | +0.47% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
28.0261 | 0.0853 | +0.31% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.1307 | -0.0173 | -0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
342.6200 | 0.1900 | +0.06% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
82.6943 | 0.1077 | +0.13% | 4:05 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.6260 | -0.2287 | -1.28% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.301 | -3.251 | -3.121 | 7.625 | -3.743 | -3.693 | -3.563 |
| 7.500 | -3.083 | -3.033 | -2.903 | 7.500 | -3.490 | -3.440 | -3.310 |
| 7.375 | -2.715 | -2.665 | -2.535 | 7.375 | -3.123 | -3.073 | -2.943 |
| 7.250 | -2.580 | -2.530 | -2.400 | 7.250 | -3.024 | -2.974 | -2.844 |
| 7.125 | -2.527 | -2.477 | -2.347 | 7.125 | -2.920 | -2.870 | -2.740 |
| 6.999 | -2.423 | -2.373 | -2.243 | 6.999 | -2.769 | -2.719 | -2.589 |
| 6.875 | -1.990 | -1.940 | -1.810 | 6.875 | -2.370 | -2.320 | -2.190 |
| 6.750 | -1.789 | -1.739 | -1.609 | 6.750 | -2.239 | -2.189 | -2.059 |
| 6.625 | -1.757 | -1.707 | -1.577 | 6.625 | -2.193 | -2.143 | -2.013 |
| 6.500 | -1.560 | -1.510 | -1.380 | 6.500 | -2.044 | -1.994 | -1.864 |
| 6.375 | -1.046 | -0.996 | -0.866 | 6.375 | -1.575 | -1.525 | -1.395 |
| 6.250 | -0.682 | -0.632 | -0.502 | 6.250 | -1.332 | -1.282 | -1.152 |
| 6.125 | -0.597 | -0.547 | -0.417 | 6.125 | -0.883 | -0.833 | -0.703 |
| 5.999 | -0.445 | -0.395 | -0.265 | 5.999 | -0.704 | -0.654 | -0.524 |
| 5.875 | 0.223 | 0.273 | 0.403 | 5.875 | -0.181 | -0.131 | -0.001 |
| 5.750 | 0.877 | 0.927 | 1.057 | 5.750 | 0.228 | 0.278 | 0.408 |
| 5.625 | 0.974 | 1.024 | 1.154 | 5.625 | 0.702 | 0.752 | 0.882 |
| 5.500 | 1.398 | 1.448 | 1.578 | 5.500 | 1.167 | 1.217 | 1.347 |
| 5.375 | 2.098 | 2.148 | 2.278 | 5.375 | 1.699 | 1.749 | 1.879 |
| 5.250 | 2.829 | 2.879 | 3.009 | 5.250 | 2.185 | 2.235 | 2.365 |
| 5.125 | 3.170 | 3.220 | 3.350 | 5.125 | 2.516 | 2.566 | 2.696 |
| 5.000 | 3.801 | 3.851 | 3.981 | 5.000 | 3.330 | 3.380 | 3.510 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -2.847 | -2.797 | -2.667 | 7.000 | -2.738 | -2.688 | -2.558 |
| 6.875 | -2.604 | -2.554 | -2.424 | 6.875 | -2.500 | -2.450 | -2.320 |
| 6.750 | -2.338 | -2.288 | -2.158 | 6.750 | -2.252 | -2.202 | -2.072 |
| 6.625 | -2.291 | -2.241 | -2.111 | 6.625 | -2.207 | -2.157 | -2.027 |
| 6.500 | -2.175 | -2.125 | -1.995 | 6.500 | -2.067 | -2.017 | -1.887 |
| 6.375 | -2.132 | -2.082 | -1.952 | 6.375 | -2.027 | -1.977 | -1.847 |
| 6.250 | -1.781 | -1.731 | -1.601 | 6.250 | -1.696 | -1.646 | -1.516 |
| 6.125 | -1.485 | -1.435 | -1.305 | 6.125 | -1.403 | -1.353 | -1.223 |
| 6.000 | -1.335 | -1.285 | -1.155 | 6.000 | -1.225 | -1.175 | -1.045 |
| 5.875 | -1.155 | -1.105 | -0.975 | 5.875 | -1.050 | -1.000 | -0.870 |
| 5.750 | -0.737 | -0.687 | -0.557 | 5.750 | -0.654 | -0.604 | -0.474 |
| 5.625 | -0.374 | -0.324 | -0.194 | 5.625 | -0.293 | -0.243 | -0.113 |
| 5.500 | -0.280 | -0.230 | -0.100 | 5.500 | -0.234 | -0.184 | -0.054 |
| 5.375 | -0.020 | 0.030 | 0.160 | 5.375 | 0.018 | 0.068 | 0.198 |
| 5.250 | 0.421 | 0.471 | 0.601 | 5.250 | 0.440 | 0.490 | 0.620 |
| 5.125 | 0.814 | 0.864 | 0.994 | 5.125 | 0.791 | 0.841 | 0.971 |
| 5.000 | 0.852 | 0.902 | 1.032 | 5.000 | 0.838 | 0.888 | 1.018 |
| 4.875 | 1.217 | 1.267 | 1.397 | 4.875 | 1.196 | 1.246 | 1.376 |
| 4.750 | 1.690 | 1.740 | 1.870 | 4.750 | 1.651 | 1.701 | 1.831 |
| 4.625 | 2.102 | 2.152 | 2.282 | 4.625 | 2.061 | 2.111 | 2.241 |
| 4.500 | 2.166 | 2.216 | 2.346 | 4.500 | 2.128 | 2.178 | 2.308 |
| 4.375 | 2.588 | 2.638 | 2.768 | 4.375 | 2.500 | 2.550 | 2.680 |
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