Magazyn Kieszeń (497) 03.23.2024

Market Wrap-up

This week, all about the Fed. Economic releases centered on the housing sector. The FOMC and Powell pushed markets to believe the Fed will cut rates three times, at least that is the immediate takeaway. The yield curve saw rate declines, mortgage rates move lower yet technically our work isn’t bullish yet although not bearish either. Next week after a few days to assess how US finical markets perform investors and traders will have a better idea about how low interest rates can fall from present levels.

One thing that is increasingly standing out is that the 2.0% inflation target isn’t locked in as the end all for the Fed. We noted earlier this week that comments from the ECB that it may begin lowering rates even if the holy grail of 2.0% isn’t reached. Just a snippet but linked with comments from Powell this week that the Fed is set for three cuts, and he stressed the Fed isn’t thinking of any increases even if inflation doesn’t meet the 2.0% goal. Central banks now seeing inflation stabilizing but are not expecting inflation to begin a run higher. In that background is a nugget, central banks are abandoning the strict 2.0% target.

Next Week: Monday February new home sales, $66B 2 year note auction. Tuesday February durable goods orders, January Case/Shiller home price index, March consumer confidence index, $67B 5 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, $43B 7 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 final GDP, March Chicago purchasing managers index, University of Michigan final March consumer sentiment index, February pending home sales. Friday February PCE inflation, February personal spending and income.

This Week: The 10 year note this week -10 bps, the 2 year note -13 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon prices this week +63 bps. The DJIA this week +761, NASDAQ +456, S&P +117. Gold held up well with the dollar’s increase, +$3.00. Crude oil quiet declining just 0.$24. A good week for the US dollar, the index increased 1.05, a strong move. Bitcoin took a hit this week after the runaway rally the prior tow weeks, the coin declined 5,204.

The 10 year note at a critical chart point at 4.20%, where key short-term and long-term moving averages are residing. It was a good week for interest rates and mortgage rates. Today MBS prices ending unchanged from the 15 bp improvement at 9:30 am.

CENY @ 4:00 PM 03.22.2024

10 year note: 4.22% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.21% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.61% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.39% -5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.96 +16 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.19 +13 bp (unch from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.83 +18 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2289 +$0.0293

Dollar/Yen: 151.44 -0.19 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0804 -$0.0057

Dollar Index: 104.48 +1.05

Gold: $2,164.50 -$20.20

Bitcoin: 63,873 -1447

Crude Oil: $80.77 0$0.30

DJIA: 39,475.90 -305.47

NASDAQ: 16,428.82 +26.98

S&P 500: 5234.18 -7.35

SOFR Data 03/22: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32072, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35291, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38858, INDEX: 1.12852126

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,377.69	-32.05	-1.33%	-2.85%	+39.27%	12:15 PM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	80,992.63	-822.30	-1.01%	-1.78%	+42.12%	12:15 PM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,956.48	-37.15	-1.24%	-2.81%	+40.76%	12:15 PM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0808	-0.0052	-0.48%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	151.4100	-0.2100	-0.14%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2601	-0.0057	-0.45%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6515	-0.0055	-0.84%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3604	0.0073	+0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8975	0.0000	0.00%	4:59 P

 

USD-CZK	23.4656	0.1483	+0.64%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.8735	0.1332	+0.48%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9972	0.0312	+0.79%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	367.8300	4.2900	+1.18%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	92.2385	0.3885	+0.42%	11:37 AM

 

USD-MXN

16.7645

0.0244

+0.15%

4:59 PM

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.91% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.40% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.30% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.55% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.42% -0.05 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/22 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.21% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/21   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.97% +0.13 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.49% +0.12 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.14% +0.10 0.54 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/20

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.52 +0.22   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.52 +0.22 UMBS 6.0 100.95 +0.19 GNMA 5.5 99.84 +0.23 GNMA 6.0 100.86 +0.20 Pricing as of: 3/22 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2020 -0.0670   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.596 -0.047 5 YR Treasury 4.189 -0.068 7 YR Treasury 4.208 -0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.202 -0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.381 -0.054 Pricing as of: 3/22 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.750	-2.979	-2.929	-2.799	7.625	-3.617	-3.567	-3.437
7.625	-3.303	-3.253	-3.123	7.500	-3.341	-3.291	-3.161
7.500	-3.045	-2.995	-2.865	7.375	-2.994	-2.944	-2.814
7.375	-2.693	-2.643	-2.513	7.250	-2.598	-2.548	-2.418
7.250	-2.250	-2.200	-2.070	7.125	-2.810	-2.760	-2.630
7.125	-2.454	-2.404	-2.274	6.999	-2.532	-2.482	-2.352
6.999	-2.148	-2.098	-1.968	6.875	-2.126	-2.076	-1.946
6.875	-1.731	-1.681	-1.551	6.750	-1.673	-1.623	-1.493
6.750	-1.193	-1.143	-1.013	6.625	-2.045	-1.995	-1.865
6.625	-1.519	-1.469	-1.339	6.500	-1.672	-1.622	-1.492
6.500	-1.151	-1.101	-0.971	6.375	-1.227	-1.177	-1.047
6.375	-0.646	-0.596	-0.466	6.250	-0.736	-0.686	-0.556
6.250	-0.020	0.030	0.160	6.125	-0.633	-0.583	-0.453
6.125	-0.155	-0.105	0.025	5.999	-0.234	-0.184	-0.054
5.999	0.355	0.405	0.535	5.875	0.286	0.336	0.466
5.875	1.010	1.060	1.190	5.750	0.845	0.895	1.025
5.750	1.752	1.802	1.932	5.625	1.314	1.364	1.494
5.625	1.895	1.945	2.075	5.500	1.805	1.855	1.985

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.996	-2.946	-2.816	6.875	-2.768	-2.718	-2.588
6.875	-2.703	-2.653	-2.523	6.750	-2.416	-2.366	-2.236
6.750	-2.347	-2.297	-2.167	6.625	-2.017	-1.967	-1.837
6.625	-1.948	-1.898	-1.768	6.500	-2.197	-2.147	-2.017
6.500	-2.022	-1.972	-1.842	6.375	-1.930	-1.880	-1.750
6.375	-1.740	-1.690	-1.560	6.250	-1.536	-1.486	-1.356
6.250	-1.342	-1.292	-1.162	6.125	-1.110	-1.060	-0.930
6.125	-0.916	-0.866	-0.736	6.000	-1.612	-1.562	-1.432
6.000	-1.317	-1.267	-1.137	5.875	-1.258	-1.208	-1.078
5.875	-0.944	-0.894	-0.764	5.750	-0.832	-0.782	-0.652
5.750	-0.513	-0.463	-0.333	5.625	-0.371	-0.321	-0.191
5.625	-0.052	-0.002	0.128	5.500	-0.505	-0.455	-0.325
5.500	-0.116	-0.066	0.064	5.375	-0.129	-0.079	0.051
5.375	0.279	0.329	0.459	5.250	0.313	0.363	0.493
5.250	0.726	0.776	0.906	5.125	0.789	0.839	0.969
5.125	1.202	1.252	1.382	5.000	0.848	0.898	1.028
5.000	1.331	1.381	1.511	4.875	1.220	1.270	1.400
4.875	1.720	1.770	1.900	4.750	1.705	1.755	1.885