Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is down -3 BPS at 3 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official release from the BLS here.

Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

February Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 275K versus estimates of 200K

January NFP revised from 353K to 229K

December NFP revised from 333K to 290K

The rolling three month average is now 265K

Wages:

The National Average Hourly Earnings rate increased by 5 cents to $34.57 per hour

Average Hourly Earnings MOM rose by 0.1% versus estimates of 0.3%

Average Hourly Earnings YOY rose by 4.3% versus estimates of 4.4%

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9% versus estimates of 3.7%

The U6 Underemployment Rate increased to 7.3%

The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.5%

The Average Work Week increased to 34.3 hours

 

The initial reaction to the Fed employment data this morning pushed interest rates lower and MBS prices higher. By 12 pm ET the initial reaction was gone, and rates increased to end the day unchanged and MBS prices slightly lower than morning price levels. Jobs originally reported in Jan were revised lower, Feb jobs were better. Taken together Jan and Feb were about in line with recent trends.. Average hourly earnings declined, +0.1%, down from +0.5% in Jan. One thing we can say about the monthly employment data, always a surprise; by the end of the day interest rates were back to yesterday’s levels.

The report added more conviction that the Fed is ready to lower rates if inflation doesn’t re-energize. Powell was clear yesterday and Wednesday that the Fed is priming to lower rates… but, and it is a but, inflation must keep slowing. Former St. Louis Fed pres. Bullard “I see this as increasing the probability that the Fed acts a little bit sooner than previously anticipated.” The employment rate increased to 3.9% in Feb the highest in two years, just what the Fed wants to believe a soft landing in labor markets.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers isn’t sure the Fed is seeing the light. The neutral rate the Fed wants is 2.5%, would neither stoke the economy nor hold it back. Summers saying the present neutral rate is closer to 4.0%. “There’s something very fundamental that has happened, that I’m not sure that the Fed has fully realized,”… “The neutral interest rate is way above the 2.5% that the Fed likes to talk about.”

Next Week: Monday $56B 3 year note auction. Tuesday February CPI, NFIB small business optimism index, Feb Treasury budget, $39B 10 year note auction Wednesday weekly MBS mortgage apps.$22B 30 year bond auction. Thursday Feb PPI, Feb retail sales, weekly jobless claims. Friday Feb import and export prices, Feb industrial production and capacity utilization, University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.

This Week: The 10 year note yield -9 bps, the 2 year note -7 bps. MBS prices gained 47 bps. The DJIA -364. NASDAQ -90, S&P -13. Gold kept increasing. Up$90.00 this week; crude oil declined $1.93. The dollar declined this week; the index fell 1.15 a sizeable drop. Bitcoin, the winner of the week, it increased 6,264.

Inflation next week, this week saw the 10 year note yield decline 9 bps, 2 year down 7 bps, MBS price +47 bps, all anticipating the Fed will lower rates. Next week’s inflation data on Tuesday and Thursday and Treasury auctions will slow the decent in rates early in the week as traders digest this week’s rate improvements. We locked yesterday and will stay risk off over the weekend.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.09% unch

5 year note: 4.05% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.49% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.26% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.08 +4 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.27 +12 bp (unch from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.07 +9 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1859 -$0.070

Dollar/Yen: 147.09 -0.96 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0937 -$0.0013

Dollar Index: 102.76 -0.06

Gold: $2,183.20 +$18.00

Bitcoin: 69,279 +1525

Crude Oil: $77.90 -$1.03

DJIA: 38,722.69 -68.66

NASDAQ: 16,085.11 -188.26

S&P 500: 5123.69 -33.67

SOFR Data 03/08: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.31864, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35380, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38807, INDEX: 1.12619359

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,351.65	+15.42	+0.66%	+1.41%	+26.38%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	80,199.54	+320.34	+0.40%	+1.89%	+31.27%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,934.86	+18.29	+0.63%	+2.31%	+32.72%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0939	-0.0009	-0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	147.0600	-0.9900	-0.67%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2858	0.0049	+0.38%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6624	0.0004	+0.06%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3483	0.0024	+0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8771	-0.0006	-0.07%	4:59 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	23.1409	-0.0173	-0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.5401	0.0226	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9299	0.0009	+0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	360.3400	-0.7400	-0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.0719	0.4719	+0.52%	11:11 AM

 

 

USD-MXN

16.8125

-0.0634

-0.38%

4:59 PM

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.85% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.85% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.39% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.38% -0.12 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.22% -0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.51% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.40% -0.11 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/8 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.39% -0.05%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.22% -0.04 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/7   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.07 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.12 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.00% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/14

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.84 +0.13   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.84 +0.13 UMBS 6.0 101.06 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.14 +0.16 GNMA 6.0 100.94 +0.03 Pricing as of: 3/8 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0810 -0.0070   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.482 -0.021 5 YR Treasury 4.052 -0.025 7 YR Treasury 4.069 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 4.081 -0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.254 +0.007 Pricing as of: 3/8 5:31PM EST

 

See home price changes in your local market — Fourth Quarter 2023

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	-0.40%	2.11%	6.96%	29.44%	38.84%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR							ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.750	-2.887		-2.837		-2.707		7.625		-3.665		-3.615		-3.485
7.625	-3.366		-3.316		-3.186		7.500		-3.399		-3.349		-3.219
7.500	-3.088		-3.038		-2.908		7.375		-3.067		-3.017		-2.887
7.375	-2.745		-2.695		-2.565		7.250		-2.665		-2.615		-2.485
7.250	-2.313		-2.263		-2.133		7.125		-2.929		-2.879		-2.749
7.125	-2.577		-2.527		-2.397		6.999		-2.645		-2.595		-2.465
6.999	-2.246		-2.196		-2.066		6.875		-2.248		-2.198		-2.068
6.875	-1.843		-1.793		-1.663		6.750		-1.789		-1.739		-1.609
6.750	-1.334		-1.284		-1.154		6.625		-2.160		-2.110		-1.980
6.625	-1.724		-1.674		-1.544		6.500		-1.813		-1.763		-1.633
6.500	-1.335		-1.285		-1.155		6.375		-1.365		-1.315		-1.185
6.375	-0.843		-0.793		-0.663		6.250		-0.860		-0.810		-0.680
6.250	-0.266		-0.216		-0.086		6.125		-0.859		-0.809		-0.679
6.125	-0.540		-0.490		-0.360		5.999		-0.448		-0.398		-0.268
5.999	-0.008		0.042		0.172		5.875		0.067		0.117		0.247
5.875	0.632		0.682		0.812		5.750		0.622		0.672		0.802
5.750	1.355		1.405		1.535		5.625		1.114		1.164		1.294
5.625	1.442		1.492		1.622		5.500		1.631		1.681		1.811
5.500	2.122		2.172		2.302		5.375		2.139		2.189		2.319
ELITE 11-15 YEAR								ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.875		-2.729		-2.679		-2.549		6.750		-2.355		-2.305		-2.175
6.750		-2.380		-2.330		-2.200		6.625		-1.967		-1.917		-1.787
6.625		-1.992		-1.942		-1.812		6.500		-2.225		-2.175		-2.045
6.500		-2.143		-2.093		-1.963		6.375		-1.962		-1.912		-1.782
6.375		-1.866		-1.816		-1.686		6.250		-1.573		-1.523		-1.393
6.250		-1.473		-1.423		-1.293		6.125		-1.155		-1.105		-0.975
6.125		-1.055		-1.005		-0.875		6.000		-1.540		-1.490		-1.360
6.000		-1.365		-1.315		-1.185		5.875		-1.241		-1.191		-1.061
5.875		-1.051		-1.001		-0.871		5.750		-0.824		-0.774		-0.644
5.750		-0.631		-0.581		-0.451		5.625		-0.367		-0.317		-0.187
5.625		-0.174		-0.124		0.006		5.500		-0.638		-0.588		-0.458
5.500		-0.340		-0.290		-0.160		5.375		-0.280		-0.230		-0.100
5.375		0.034		0.084		0.214		5.250		0.152		0.202		0.332
5.250		0.470		0.520		0.650		5.125		0.620		0.670		0.800
5.125		0.939		0.989		1.119		5.000		0.504		0.554		0.684
5.000		0.893		0.943		1.073		4.875		0.875		0.925		1.055
4.875		1.282		1.332		1.462		4.750		1.346		1.396		1.526
4.750		1.758		1.808		1.938		4.625		1.852		1.902		2.032
4.625		2.264		2.314		2.444		4.500		1.919		1.969		2.099