Magazyn Kieszeń (494) 03.02.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is up +20 BPS at 3 PM.

Rosie the Riveter: The February ISM Manufacturing Index showed contraction with a lower than expected reading of 47.8 versus estimates of 49.5. Prices Paid were 52.5 versus estimates of 53 and the Employment Index hit 45.9 versus 47.1 in January.

Consumer Sentiment: The final February revised UofM Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 76.9 versus the prelim number of 79.6.Bob the Builder: January Construction Spending fell -0.2% versus estimates of 0.2%.

The Talking Fed: Fed Gov Waller remarked on a recently published Fed paper addressing QT and said “First, I would like to see the Fed’s agency MBS holdings go to zero. Agency MBS holdings have been slow to run off the portfolio, at a recent monthly average of about $15 billion, because the underlying mortgages have very low interest rates and prepayments are quite small. I believe it is important to see a continued reduction in these holdings. Second, I would like to see a shift in Treasury holdings toward a larger share of shorter-dated Treasury securities.

This morning, we noted the tight trading range for the 10 year note, trading between 4.23% and 4.32% for the last two weeks. This morning’s University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment data was slightly weaker than in December but still the outlook for stronger economic growth remains embedded. Yesterday’s PCE inflation was right on forecasts, that in itself is unusual, by the end of the day interest rates were unchanged from Wednesday. This morning the 10 began at 4.24% -2 bps but held the trading range. The range broke today, the 10 year and 2 year notes declined, the 2 trading below its 200-day average, the 10 right at its 200 day average. The yield on the 10 4.18% -8 bps, the 2 also down 8 bps. At 3 pm MBS prices +17 bps and +22 bps from 9:30 am, lenders re-pricing better.

This morning the February manufacturing index was expected to have improved from 49.1 to 49.5, the index declined to 47.8, another soft manufacturing report indicating contraction.

Fed governor Waller today pushed the idea the Fed should shift its buying to more short-term instruments from long term like 10 year notes. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he doesn’t want to have to raise interest rates again. Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin said markets are pricing in fewer rate reductions in response to economic data. Dallas Fed Pres Logan said it is likely to be appropriate to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet. Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he believes the Fed funds rate is quite restrictive — and he wouldn’t be surprised if January inflation ends up being just noise.

Next Week’s Calendar: The main events next week, Feb employment data and Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House and Senate. Nothing on Monday. Tuesday Feb final PMI manufacturing and services sector indexes, Jan factory orders. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, Feb ADP private jobs, Jan JOLTS job openings, Jan wholesale inventories, Fed Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 productivity and unit labor costs, Jan US trade deficit, Jan consumer credit. Friday Feb employment data.

This Week: The 10 year note declined 7 bps, all of it today, the 2 year note this week down 13 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +31 bps. The DJIA this week -45, NASDAQ +278, S&P +48. Crude oil increased $3.21; Gold increased $47.00. The dollar this week essentially unchanged from last week. Bitcoin blew the doors off increasing11,615 to over 63K.

The 10 year technical break out of its tight range, a big positive if it holds Monday. Our very short-term technical indicators turned positive from neutral this morning.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

WE WILL FLOAT WITH THE IMPROVEMENT.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.18% -8 bp

5 year note: 4.17% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.56% -9 bp

30 year bond: 4.33% -5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.61 +19 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.87 +17 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.54 +20 bp (+25 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1966 +$0.0087

Dollar/Yen: 150.16 +0.18 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0837 +$0.0030

Dollar Index: 103.91 -0.25

Gold: $2,093.20 +$38.50

Bitcoin: 63,015 +942

Crude Oil: $79.83 +$1.57

DJIA: 39,087.38 +90.09

NASDAQ: 16,274.94 +183.02

S&P 500: 5137.08 +40.81

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,424.70	+6.60	+0.27%	+5.14%	+30.63%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	82,172.38	+227.82	+0.28%	+4.79%	+35.82%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,023.57	+3.97	+0.13%	+5.36%	+32.96%	11:15 A

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0837	0.0032	+0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	150.1200	0.1400	+0.09%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2655	0.0030	+0.24%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6527	0.0030	+0.46%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3561	-0.0018	-0.13%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8834	-0.0011	-0.12%	4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.3969	-0.0526	-0.22%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.7988	-0.0821	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9843	-0.0099	-0.25%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	363.5300	0.2400	+0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.7348	0.5347	+0.59%	10:26 A

USD-MXN

17.0158

-0.0384

-0.23%

4:59 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.08% -0.02%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.08%	-0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.57%	-0.03	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.57%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.38%	-0.04	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.70%	-0.10	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.57%	-0.07	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/1

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.57% -0.03%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.94%	+0.04	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.26%	-0.03	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/29

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.87%	+0.07	0.65
15 Yr. Fixed	6.53%	+0.12	0.94
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.00%	+0.12	0.39
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/14

MBS / Treasuries

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.000

-3.524

-3.474

-3.344

7.875

-3.389

-3.339

-3.209

7.875

-3.183

-3.133

-3.003

7.750

-2.994

-2.944

-2.814

7.750

-2.754

-2.704

-2.574

7.625

-3.390

-3.340

-3.210

7.625

-3.235

-3.185

-3.055

7.500

-3.098

-3.048

-2.918

7.500

-2.952

-2.902

-2.772

7.375

-2.732

-2.682

-2.552

7.375

-2.548

-2.498

-2.368

7.250

-2.334

-2.284

-2.154

7.250

-2.070

-2.020

-1.890

7.125

-2.491

-2.441

-2.311

7.125

-2.309

-2.259

-2.129

6.999

-2.176

-2.126

-1.996

6.999

-1.977

-1.927

-1.797

6.875

-1.758

-1.708

-1.578

6.875

-1.524

-1.474

-1.344

6.750

-1.308

-1.258

-1.128

6.750

-0.948

-0.898

-0.768

6.625

-1.538

-1.488

-1.358

6.625

-1.279

-1.229

-1.099

6.500

-1.149

-1.099

-0.969

6.500

-0.897

-0.847

-0.717

6.375

-0.686

-0.636

-0.506

6.375

-0.355

-0.305

-0.175

6.250

-0.204

-0.154

-0.024

6.250

0.318

0.368

0.498

6.125

-0.085

-0.035

0.095

6.125

0.139

0.189

0.319

5.999

0.359

0.409

0.539

5.999

0.706

0.756

0.886

5.875

0.881

0.931

1.061

5.875

1.398

1.448

1.578

5.750

1.436

1.486

1.616

5.750

2.164

2.214

2.344

5.625

1.918

1.968

2.098

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.842	-2.792	-2.662	7.000	-2.801	-2.751	-2.621
6.875	-2.549	-2.499	-2.369	6.875	-2.521	-2.471	-2.341
6.750	-2.183	-2.133	-2.003	6.750	-2.158	-2.108	-1.978
6.625	-1.771	-1.721	-1.591	6.625	-1.746	-1.696	-1.566
6.500	-1.861	-1.811	-1.681	6.500	-1.943	-1.893	-1.763
6.375	-1.590	-1.540	-1.410	6.375	-1.686	-1.636	-1.506
6.250	-1.187	-1.137	-1.007	6.250	-1.287	-1.237	-1.107
6.125	-0.747	-0.697	-0.567	6.125	-0.847	-0.797	-0.667
6.000	-1.020	-0.970	-0.840	6.000	-1.194	-1.144	-1.014
5.875	-0.705	-0.655	-0.525	5.875	-0.895	-0.845	-0.715
5.750	-0.273	-0.223	-0.093	5.750	-0.467	-0.417	-0.287
5.625	0.201	0.251	0.381	5.625	0.007	0.057	0.187
5.500	0.206	0.256	0.386	5.500	-0.092	-0.042	0.088
5.375	0.579	0.629	0.759	5.375	0.265	0.315	0.445
5.250	1.031	1.081	1.211	5.250	0.712	0.762	0.892
5.125	1.519	1.569	1.699	5.125	1.200	1.250	1.380
5.000	1.559	1.609	1.739	5.000	1.171	1.221	1.351
4.875	1.958	2.008	2.138	4.875	1.550	1.600	1.730
4.750	2.449	2.499	2.629	4.750	2.037	2.087	2.217