Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is up +21 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
There were no domestic economic events today.
The Talking Fed: Fed Governor Waller said he will need “at least another couple more months” of data before inflation is falling enough to warrant interest rate cuts.
Germany: 4th QTR GDP -0.3% versus estimates of -0.3%
The rate curve had some volatility today, the 10 high 4.35% +3 bp, the low 4.25% -8 bps. The volatility driven by Fed officials’ comments. Waller this morning, pointed to January CPI core inflation at 3.9% increased 0.4% in the month. He further offered his outlook for Feb PCE core inflation would decline to 2.8% year/year (released next Thursday). John Williams, NY Fed, “Inflation’s still above 2%, but definitely now below 3%, and I think the signs are consistent with it continuing to come down, trend down going forward.” “Things are moving [in] the right direction,” Williams said. “I just want to see that continue.” Yesterday Philly Fed’s Harker yesterday; “I would caution anyone from looking for [a rate cut] right now and right away,” “I will signal my belief that we’re ready for a rate decrease when all the data — both the hard and the soft — give me that signal.” The ECB’s Holzmann said that it is better to cut rates late but at a faster pace than to begin too early ,while policymaker Nagel said that the inflation outlook is not clear enough.
Next Thursday the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE (personal consumption expenditures) will be released, the forecasts will be out Monday morning.
Next Week’s Calendar unlike this week, has a plethora of data and a series of Treasury auctions. Monday Treasury will auction$63B of 3s and $64B of 5s, January new home sales. Tuesday January durable goods orders, December Case/Shiller home price index, February consumer confidence index, Treasury will auction $42B of 7 year notes. Wednesday MBA mortgage apps, 2nd read on Q4 GDP. Thursday weekly jobless claims, January personal income and spending, Jan PCE inflation, January pending home sales. Friday Feb ISM manufacturing index, Final February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, January construction spending.
This Week: The 10 yield declined 3 bps to 4.26%, the 2 year not increased 2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increases 16 bps; all the weekly gain was today. The DJIA this week +504, NASDAQ +21, S&P +83. The US dollar ended the week lower for the first time in weeks, the index declined 0.31. Gold increased as the dollar softened, up $21.00. Crude oil declined $2.36. Bitcoin held most of its recent gains but declined 858 this week.
The 10 fell to its key resistance at 4.26%, MBS prices increased 17 bps from 9:30 am this morning. We have been staying away from risk and hold that rates will have difficulty improving early next week. That said with the gains from morning pricing levels today we will hold rate locks based on this morning’s prices.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE WILL FLOAT TODAY’S PRICE GAINS.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.25% -7 bp
5 year note: 4.29% -5 bp
2 year note: 4.69% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.37% -9 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.3 +18 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.62 +10 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 99>32 +29 bp (+36 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.1959 +$0.0015
Dollar/Yen: 150.49 -0.04 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0822 unch
Dollar Index: 103.97 +0.02
Gold: $2,046.30 +$15.70
Bitcoin: 51,033 -931
Crude Oil: $76.62 -$1.99
DJIA: 39,131.53 +62.42
NASDAQ: 15,996.82 -44.80
S&P 500: 5088.80 +1.77
SOFR Data 02/23: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32131, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35831, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38760, INDEX: 1.12387041
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EST) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,476.82 | +29.50 | +1.21% | +12.77% | +35.73% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
83,265.56 | +801.04 | +0.97% | +11.61% | +40.00% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,076.03 | +33.99 | +1.12% | +12.72% | +37.38% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EST) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0822 | -0.0001 | -0.01% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
150.5000 | -0.0300 | -0.02% | 4:32 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2670 | 0.0010 | +0.08% | 4:32 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6564 | 0.0007 | +0.11% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3503 | 0.0021 | +0.16% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8812 | 0.0010 | +0.11% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.8416 | 0.0060 | +0.02% | 4:41 PM | |||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.9787 | -0.0170 | -0.43% | 4:40 PM | |||||
| USD-HUF
|
359.4700 | 1.0700 | +0.30% | 4:40 PM | |||||
| USD-RUB
|
94.8670 | 1.8670 | +2.01% | 10:30 | |||||
| USD-MXN
|
17.1232 | 0.0156 | +0.09% | 4:37 PM | |||||
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.125 | -3.645 | -3.595 | -3.465 | 8.000 | -3.580 | -3.530 | -3.400 |
| 8.000 | -3.394 | -3.344 | -3.214 | 7.875 | -3.255 | -3.205 | -3.075 |
| 7.875 | -3.055 | -3.005 | -2.875 | 7.750 | -2.860 | -2.810 | -2.680 |
| 7.750 | -2.627 | -2.577 | -2.447 | 7.625 | -3.165 | -3.115 | -2.985 |
| 7.625 | -3.026 | -2.976 | -2.846 | 7.500 | -2.874 | -2.824 | -2.694 |
| 7.500 | -2.745 | -2.695 | -2.565 | 7.375 | -2.507 | -2.457 | -2.327 |
| 7.375 | -2.339 | -2.289 | -2.159 | 7.250 | -2.109 | -2.059 | -1.929 |
| 7.250 | -1.857 | -1.807 | -1.677 | 7.125 | -2.275 | -2.225 | -2.095 |
| 7.125 | -2.123 | -2.073 | -1.943 | 6.999 | -1.959 | -1.909 | -1.779 |
| 6.999 | -1.792 | -1.742 | -1.612 | 6.875 | -1.531 | -1.481 | -1.351 |
| 6.875 | -1.315 | -1.265 | -1.135 | 6.750 | -1.090 | -1.040 | -0.910 |
| 6.750 | -0.746 | -0.696 | -0.566 | 6.625 | -1.274 | -1.224 | -1.094 |
| 6.625 | -1.063 | -1.013 | -0.883 | 6.500 | -0.885 | -0.835 | -0.705 |
| 6.500 | -0.688 | -0.638 | -0.508 | 6.375 | -0.421 | -0.371 | -0.241 |
| 6.375 | -0.105 | -0.055 | 0.075 | 6.250 | 0.062 | 0.112 | 0.242 |
| 6.250 | 0.574 | 0.624 | 0.754 | 6.125 | 0.231 | 0.281 | 0.411 |
| 6.125 | 0.438 | 0.488 | 0.618 | 5.999 | 0.676 | 0.726 | 0.856 |
| 5.999 | 1.011 | 1.061 | 1.191 | 5.875 | 1.199 | 1.249 | 1.379 |
| 5.875 | 1.714 | 1.764 | 1.894 | 5.750 | 1.754 | 1.804 | 1.934 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -2.727 | -2.677 | -2.547 | 7.000 | -2.686 | -2.636 | -2.506 |
| 6.875 | -2.435 | -2.385 | -2.255 | 6.875 | -2.406 | -2.356 | -2.226 |
| 6.750 | -2.065 | -2.015 | -1.885 | 6.750 | -2.040 | -1.990 | -1.860 |
| 6.625 | -1.651 | -1.601 | -1.471 | 6.625 | -1.626 | -1.576 | -1.446 |
| 6.500 | -1.727 | -1.677 | -1.547 | 6.500 | -1.809 | -1.759 | -1.629 |
| 6.375 | -1.457 | -1.407 | -1.277 | 6.375 | -1.553 | -1.503 | -1.373 |
| 6.250 | -1.051 | -1.001 | -0.871 | 6.250 | -1.151 | -1.101 | -0.971 |
| 6.125 | -0.608 | -0.558 | -0.428 | 6.125 | -0.708 | -0.658 | -0.528 |
| 6.000 | -0.901 | -0.851 | -0.721 | 6.000 | -1.076 | -1.026 | -0.896 |
| 5.875 | -0.587 | -0.537 | -0.407 | 5.875 | -0.777 | -0.727 | -0.597 |
| 5.750 | -0.154 | -0.104 | 0.026 | 5.750 | -0.348 | -0.298 | -0.168 |
| 5.625 | 0.322 | 0.372 | 0.502 | 5.625 | 0.128 | 0.178 | 0.308 |
| 5.500 | 0.303 | 0.353 | 0.483 | 5.500 | 0.005 | 0.055 | 0.185 |
| 5.375 | 0.674 | 0.724 | 0.854 | 5.375 | 0.360 | 0.410 | 0.540 |
| 5.250 | 1.128 | 1.178 | 1.308 | 5.250 | 0.809 | 0.859 | 0.989 |
| 5.125 | 1.618 | 1.668 | 1.798 | 5.125 | 1.299 | 1.349 | 1.479 |
| 5.000 | 1.765 | 1.815 | 1.945 | 5.000 | 1.377 | 1.427 | 1.557 |
| 4.875 | 2.165 | 2.215 | 2.345 | 4.875 | 1.758 | 1.808 | 1.938 |
| 4.750 | 2.659 | 2.709 | 2.839 | 4.750 | 2.247 | 2.297 | 2.427 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||