Magazyn Kieszeń (492) 02.17.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is down -34 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: Another big beat in the wrong direction this week as the January Producer Price Index increased by three times the market expectations (0.3% versus estimates of 0.1%) on a MOM basis. YOY, it was up 0.9% versus estimates of 0.7%. Core (ex food and energy) PPI was up 0.5% on a MOM basis versus estimates 0.1% and back to a two handle on the YOY number, up 2.0% versus estimates of 1.6%.

Taking it to the House: January Housing Starts were lower than expected with an annualized pace of 1.331M units versus estimates of 1.460M. Building Permits, same story with 1.470M versus 1.509M.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary February UofM Consumer Sentiment Index came in clos to expectations (79.6 versus 80) and the 5 year inflation expectations remained at 2.9%

On Deck for Tomorrow: ***BOND MARKET IS CLOSED MONDAY***

Not the best week, inflation increased at both the consumer and wholesale level. Interest rates increased, stock indexes held well continuing to believe the economy will stay strong and believe the Fed’s next move will be to begin lowering rates, although not as rapid as was thought this time last week. Fed officials in unison, no cuts until inflation proves its decent, and this week a slap in the face on that idea. Today San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice, saying that to finish bringing inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target will take “fortitude.”

Prices are increasing in the services sector; it’s been happening for months. Healthcare, professional services, financial services, and entertainment. In particular, financial services and healthcare price increases were significant, as was a steep rise in hotel rates. The price for goods declined 0.2%. Expect markets to make that the center piece when defending the view rate cuts are coming. There will be no shortage of comments from economists that one moth doesn’t make a trend; that id what the fed has been saying for the last two months and why Powell is reluctant to start lowering rates. We don’t see rate cuts until this summer, that assumes inflation will stabilize and work lower.

This week was loaded with key data points; CPI, PPI, retail sales, import and export prices, consumer sentiment (that continues to improve). Next week has little data, the FOMC minutes the keystone and that isn’t much given the continual Fed speak that has dominated since the meeting.

Next Week’s Calendar: Monday markets closed. Tuesday Jan leading indicators Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes. Thursday weekly claims, S&P preliminary manufacturing and service sector index. Nothing on Friday.

This week: 10 year note yield increased 12 bps, the 2 year increased 19 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon price down 56 bps. The DJIA this week -44, NASDAQ -215, S&P -21. Gold price down $14.00, crude oil increased $2.52. The dollar quiet, the index +0.20. Bitcoin went postal, increasing 4,320.

The lack of data next week will likely increase volatility with rates possibly declining, under it all the belief continues rates are heading lower.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM 02.16.2024

10 year note: 4.29% +6 bp

5 year note: 4.29% +8 bp

2 year note: 4.67% +9 bp

30 year bond: 4.45% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.20 -29 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.51 -20 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.10 -32 bp +9 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.1193 -$0.0456

Dollar/Yen: 150.24 +0.30 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0775 +$0.0002

Dollar Index: 104.28 -0.02

Gold: $2,024.60 +$9.70

Bitcoin: 51,891 +170

Crude Oil: $79.08 +$1.05

DJIA: 38,627.99 -145.13

NASDAQ: 15,775.65 -130.52

S&P 500: 5005.57 -24.16

SOFR Data 02/16: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32407, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35945, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38761, INDEX: 1.12271302

 

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,371.05	+25.30	+1.08%	+7.36%	+27.10%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	80,147.00	+813.78	+1.03%	+6.93%	+32.24%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,943.71	+30.36	+1.04%	+7.23%	+28.25%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0777	0.0005	+0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	150.2100	0.2800	+0.19%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2602	0.0002	+0.02%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6531	0.0006	+0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3485	0.0020	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8806	0.0007	+0.08%	4:59 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	23.6078	0.0759	+0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.9553	-0.0106	-0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0270	-0.0040	-0.10%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	361.1000	-0.1000	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	92.3828	-0.0535	-0.06%	11:13 A

 

 

SD-MXN

17.0562

0.0135

+0.08%

4:59 PM

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.14% +0.11%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.14% +0.11 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.65% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.40% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.88% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.70% +0.15 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.55% +0.08%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% +0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.22 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/15   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.07 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.12 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.00% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/14

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.69 -0.34   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.69 -0.34 UMBS 6.0 100.23 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 99.13 -0.14 GNMA 6.0 100.28 +0.05 Pricing as of: 2/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2830 +0.0470   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.646 +0.068 5 YR Treasury 4.277 +0.059 7 YR Treasury 4.299 +0.057 10 YR Treasury 4.283 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.438 +0.027 Pricing as of: 2/16 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.125	-3.375	-3.325	-3.195	8.000	-3.376	-3.326	-3.196
8.000	-3.175	-3.125	-2.995	7.875	-3.051	-3.001	-2.871
7.875	-2.835	-2.785	-2.655	7.750	-2.656	-2.606	-2.476
7.750	-2.409	-2.359	-2.229	7.625	-3.023	-2.973	-2.843
7.625	-2.859	-2.809	-2.679	7.500	-2.751	-2.701	-2.571
7.500	-2.597	-2.547	-2.417	7.375	-2.394	-2.344	-2.214
7.375	-2.206	-2.156	-2.026	7.250	-1.997	-1.947	-1.817
7.250	-1.729	-1.679	-1.549	7.125	-2.055	-2.005	-1.875
7.125	-1.871	-1.821	-1.691	6.999	-1.770	-1.720	-1.590
6.999	-1.571	-1.521	-1.391	6.875	-1.352	-1.302	-1.172
6.875	-1.114	-1.064	-0.934	6.750	-0.901	-0.851	-0.721
6.750	-0.540	-0.490	-0.360	6.625	-1.013	-0.963	-0.833
6.625	-0.762	-0.712	-0.582	6.500	-0.644	-0.594	-0.464
6.500	-0.404	-0.354	-0.224	6.375	-0.181	-0.131	-0.001

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.599	-2.549	-2.419	7.000	-2.558	-2.508	-2.378
6.875	-2.307	-2.257	-2.127	6.875	-2.278	-2.228	-2.098
6.750	-1.938	-1.888	-1.758	6.750	-1.913	-1.863	-1.733
6.625	-1.525	-1.475	-1.345	6.625	-1.500	-1.450	-1.320
6.500	-1.642	-1.592	-1.462	6.500	-1.724	-1.674	-1.544
6.375	-1.381	-1.331	-1.201	6.375	-1.477	-1.427	-1.297
6.250	-0.986	-0.936	-0.806	6.250	-1.086	-1.036	-0.906
6.125	-0.544	-0.494	-0.364	6.125	-0.644	-0.594	-0.464
6.000	-0.684	-0.634	-0.504	6.000	-0.859	-0.809	-0.679
5.875	-0.370	-0.320	-0.190	5.875	-0.560	-0.510	-0.380
5.750	0.053	0.103	0.233	5.750	-0.141	-0.091	0.039
5.625	0.528	0.578	0.708	5.625	0.334	0.384	0.514

 

See home price changes in your local market — Third Quarter 2023

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.19%	5.85%	5.33%	31.01%	38.45%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL