MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (480) 11.18. 2023

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Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 December Coupon is down -12 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.

Taking it to the House: October Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.487M units on an annualized basis versus estimates of 1.450M with single-family permits rising for the 10th straight month. Housing Starts were also a beat at 1.372M versus estimates of 1.350M

No news today other than housing starts and permits, both better than expected but on its own the data doesn’t usually get much attention. Treasuries, stock indexes, and MBSs all flat today ahead of a mushy week next week with Thanksgiving playing its role for low attendance.

The Fed and its leaders continue to play the same song, get inflation back to 2.0%, while markets where the money flows are convinced the Fed is done with hikes. Next week the minutes from the FOMC on 11/1 will be released, the substance not likely to change, most talking Fedsters recently continue to warn another increase is still a possibility even if under the surface the Fed doesn’t want to increase again, fearing another increase will end the economic growth and send the economy into a recession which presently is not in the picture. There are numerous intelligent and credible economists and analysts sending out warnings, about equal to those looking for continuing equity market gains.

Next Week’s calendar: Monday October leading economic indicators. Tuesday October existing home sales, FOMC minutes from 11/1. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, weekly jobless claims, October durable goods orders, University of Michigan final Nov consumer sentiment index. Thursday Thanksgiving. Friday no data and the bond and mortgage markets will close at 2 pm. FOMC minutes, weekly claims, and consumer sentiment headline next week; by Wednesday afternoon few will be manning the desks.

Trading next week with low volumes and not much key scheduled news could be volatile, particularly on Tuesday with the FOMC minutes, the main event next week along with jobless claims. We have held rate locks this week and want to continue but will reduce exposure going into next week.

This Week’s Changes: 10 year note yield down 18 bps, 2 year note -14 bps. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon increased 54 bps. The DJIA +664, NASDAQ +327, S&P +99. Gold increased $43.00 this week on dollar weakness. Crude oil declined $1.56/barrel. The dollar declined this week as interest rates declined, the index -1.94. Bitcoin after a big increase the week before held most of the recent gains, down 221 this week.

CENY@ 4:00 PM   11.17.2023

10 year note: 4.44% unch

5 year note: 4.45% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.91% +6 bp

30 year bond: 4.60% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 7.0: 102.30 +3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.21 +3 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.79 +12 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 100.20 +9 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2113 -$0.0307

Dollar/Yen: 149.66 -10.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0905 +$0.0053

Dollar Index: 103.89 -0.46

Gold: $1983.10 -$4.20

Bitcoin: 36,378 +360

Crude Oil: $75.71 +$2.82

DJIA: 34,947.28 +1.81

NASDAQ: 14,125.48 +11.81

S&P 500: 4514.02 +5.78

SOFR Data 11/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32541, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.34395, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.28231, INDEX: 1.10770546

 

Poland

NAME VALUE NET CHANGE % CHANGE 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EST)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

2,228.28 +11.12 +0.50% +5.19% +30.44% 11:15 AM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

74,091.88 +353.87 +0.48% +4.03% +35.23% 11:15 AM
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

2,749.83 +14.28 +0.52% +5.34% +32.39% 11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE NET CHANGE TIME (EST)
EUR-USD

 

1.0915 0.0063 +0.58% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

149.6300 -1.1000 -0.73% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2462 0.0048 +0.39% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6515 0.0045 +0.70% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.3723 -0.0032 -0.23% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.8857 -0.0030 -0.34% 4:59 PM

 

 

USD-MXN

 

17.2319 0.0039 +0.02% 4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

22.4431 -0.0963 -0.43% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

27.6013 -0.1587 -0.57% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.0180 -0.0107 -0.27% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

347.5400 0.2900 +0.08% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

89.5080 0.2367 +0.27% 11:56 A

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR  ELITE  16-20 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
8.375 -3.584 -3.534 -3.404 8.125 -4.006 -3.956 -3.826
8.250 -3.194 -3.144 -3.014 7.999 -3.717 -3.667 -3.537
8.125 -3.576 -3.526 -3.396 7.875 -3.373 -3.323 -3.193
7.999 -3.292 -3.242 -3.112 7.750 -2.977 -2.927 -2.797
7.875 -2.926 -2.876 -2.746 7.625 -3.079 -3.029 -2.899
7.750 -2.477 -2.427 -2.297 7.500 -2.722 -2.672 -2.542
7.625 -2.832 -2.782 -2.652 7.375 -2.343 -2.293 -2.163
7.500 -2.483 -2.433 -2.303 7.250 -1.931 -1.881 -1.751
7.375 -2.053 -2.003 -1.873 7.125 -1.901 -1.851 -1.721
7.250 -1.547 -1.497 -1.367 6.999 -1.479 -1.429 -1.299
7.125 -1.756 -1.706 -1.576 6.875 -1.501 -1.451 -1.321
6.999 -1.348 -1.298 -1.168 6.750 -1.046 -0.996 -0.866
6.875 -0.819 -0.769 -0.048 6.625 -0.600 -0.550 -0.420
6.750 -0.228 -0.178 -0.142 6.500 -0.545 -0.495 -0.365
6.625 -0.322 -0.272 0.378 6.375 -0.059 -0.009 0.121
6.500 0.198 0.248 1.016 6.250 0.426 0.476 0.606
6.375 0.836 0.886 1.720 6.125 0.910 0.960 1.090
6.250 1.540 1.590 2.011 6.000 1.360 1.410 1.540
6.125 1.831 1.881 2.671 5.875 2.155 2.205 2.335

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR  ELITE  8-10 YEAR 
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.500 -3.179 -3.129 -2.999 7.500 -3.015 -2.965 -2.835
7.375 -2.898 -2.848 -2.718 7.375 -2.745 -2.695 -2.565
7.250 -2.540 -2.490 -2.360 7.250 -2.390 -2.340 -2.210
7.125 -2.146 -2.096 -1.966 7.125 -1.996 -1.946 -1.816
7.000 -2.352 -2.302 -2.172 7.000 -2.218 -2.168 -2.038
6.875 -2.034 -1.984 -1.854 6.875 -1.911 -1.861 -1.731
6.750 -1.633 -1.583 -1.453 6.750 -1.515 -1.465 -1.335
6.625 -1.219 -1.169 -1.039 6.625 -1.101 -1.051 -0.921
6.500 -1.372 -1.322 -1.192 6.500 -1.235 -1.185 -1.055
6.375 -1.005 -0.955 -0.825 6.375 -0.882 -0.832 -0.702
6.250 -0.583 -0.533 -0.403 6.250 -0.464 -0.414 -0.284
6.125 -0.128 -0.078 0.052 6.125 -0.010 0.040 0.170
6.000 -0.236 -0.186 -0.056 6.000 -0.096 -0.046 0.084
5.875 0.182 0.232 0.362 5.875 0.306 0.356 0.486
5.750 0.619 0.669 0.799 5.750 0.738 0.788 0.918
5.625 1.108 1.158 1.288 5.625 1.226 1.276 1.406
5.500 1.066 1.116 1.246 5.500 1.145 1.195 1.325
5.375 1.506 1.556 1.686 5.375 1.567 1.617 1.747
5.250 1.988 2.038 2.168 5.250 2.044 2.094 2.224

 

 

Mortgage Rates

 

 

30 Yr. Fixed Rate
7.37% +0.01%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% +0.01 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% 0.00 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.70% -0.01 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.75% 0.00 0.00
5/1 ARM 6.94% -0.01 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.72% -0.01 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/17

 

 

15 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.75% +0.00%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 7.44% -0.06 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 6.76% -0.05 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/16

 

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 7.61% -0.25 0.69
15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% -0.16 0.88
30 Yr. Jumbo 7.58% -0.22 0.65
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/8

 

MBS / Treasuries

 

 

UMBS 30YR 6.0
99.75 -0.02

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0 99.75 -0.02
UMBS 6.5 101.19 -0.05
GNMA 6.0 100.09 +0.08
GNMA 6.5 101.16 +0.06
Pricing as of: 11/17 4:54PM EST

 

 

10 Year US Treasury
4.4450 +0.0040

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.907 +0.057
5 YR Treasury 4.455 +0.029
7 YR Treasury 4.478 +0.015
10 YR Treasury 4.445 +0.004
30 YR Treasury 4.602 -0.016
Pricing as of: 11/17 4:54PM EST