MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (476) 10.21. 2023

Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 November Coupon is currently up +5 BPS.

The Talking Fed: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated that she expects one more rate hike this year and that “This is consistent with my own reading of economic conditions, the outlook, and the risks to the outlook.”

Central Bank Palooza: The People’s Bank of China kept their main interest rate at 3.45%.

Six sessions of continued increases in the 10 and across the curve, today some minor improvement after the 10 increased to 5.01% at about 4 am this morning. Two-way volatility today; from 5.01% to 4.92% back to 4.99% then to 4.89% before ending at 4.94% -5 bp. MBS prices also choppy trading in a 50 bp range from high to lows.

Hamas has released two U.S. citizens taken hostage in Gaza, according to a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter. The U.S. official said the State Department had confirmed the release of the two Americans. A person familiar with the matter said the two captives were “on their way out of Gaza” on Friday evening. 201 hostages still there. Rockets raining down as we hit send. The Hezbollah front on the Lebanon border heating up, Israel evacuated a town close to the border.

The House remains in turmoil, Jim Jordan now tossed out and Republicans going fishing once again.

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday Oct S&P global manufacturing and services. Wednesday MBA weekly mortgage apps, Sept new home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Sept durable goods orders, Q3 advance GDP, Sept pending home sales. Friday inflation data with Sept PCE, personal income and spending, final U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note yield +29 bp, the 2 year note +3 bps, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -139 bps this week. The DJIA -543, NASDAQ -413, S&P -104. Gold increased $52.00 on haven buying, crude oil this week -$1.45. Bitcoin increased 2,717 on haven buying.

No change in the outlook for interest rates, haven buying will continue depending on the daily news, the mad rush to treasuries still at high levels. On Monday markets will reflect what occurs over the weekend. Since last May there have been just three times our technical indicators turned positive each time the bullish turn last only three days before reversing.

CENY @ 4:00 PM 10.20.2023

10 year note: 4.92% -7 bp

5 year note: 4.86% -10 bp

2 year note: 5.08% -8 bp

30 year bond: 5.09% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 98.89 +15 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 96.72 +21 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 97.34 +18 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.3170 +$0.0041

Dollar/Yen: 149.89 +0.09 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0594 +$0.0009

Dollar Index: 106.17 -0.08

Gold: $1993.10 +$12.60 (haven buying)

Bitcoin: 29,450 +726

Crude Oil: $89.02 -$0.35

DJIA: 33,127.28 -286.89

NASDAQ: 12,983.81 -202.37

S&P 500: 4224.16 -53.84

SOFR Data 10/20: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32064, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32560, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.22513, INDEX: 1.10313610

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,028.92	-22.48	-1.10%	+2.70%	+42.23%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	68,361.13	-795.81	-1.15%	+1.59%	+44.58%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,495.41	-28.31	-1.12%	+1.86%	+42.52%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0594	0.0012	+0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.8600	0.0600	+0.04%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2164	0.0020	+0.16%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6314	-0.0015	-0.24%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3715	-0.0004	-0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8921	0.0007	+0.08%	4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	23.2278	-0.0445	-0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.4359	-0.0320	-0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.2099	0.0022	+0.05%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	360.6900	-1.0500	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	95.7040	-1.0761	-1.11%	12:0

 

USD-MXN

18.2377

-0.0869

-0.47%

4:59 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.625	-3.381	-3.331	-3.201	8.625	-3.784	-3.734	-3.604
8.500	-3.121	-3.071	-2.941	8.500	-3.513	-3.463	-3.333
8.375	-2.755	-2.705	-2.575	8.375	-3.180	-3.130	-3.000
8.250	-2.308	-2.258	-2.128	8.250	-2.794	-2.744	-2.614
8.125	-2.251	-2.201	-2.071	8.125	-2.484	-2.434	-2.304
7.999	-1.975	-1.925	-1.795	7.999	-2.194	-2.144	-2.014
7.875	-1.530	-1.480	-1.350	7.875	-1.808	-1.758	-1.628
7.750	-1.019	-0.969	-0.839	7.750	-1.399	-1.349	-1.219
7.625	-0.843	-0.793	-0.663	7.625	-0.976	-0.926	-0.796
7.500	-0.503	-0.453	-0.323	7.500	-0.496	-0.446	-0.316
7.375	0.018	0.068	0.198	7.375	-0.075	-0.025	0.105
7.250	0.616	0.666	0.796	7.250	0.364	0.414	0.544
7.125	0.873	0.923	1.053	7.125	0.809	0.859	0.989
6.999	1.253	1.303	1.433	6.999	1.415	1.465	1.595
6.875	1.903	1.953	2.788	6.875	1.392	1.442	1.572
6.750	2.608	2.658	3.146	6.750	1.886	1.936	2.066
6.625	2.966	3.016	3.739	6.625	2.349	2.399	2.529
6.500	3.559	3.609	4.459	6.500	2.799	2.849	2.979
6.375	4.279	4.329	5.220	6.375	3.354	3.404	3.534
6.250	5.040	5.090	5.709	6.250	3.858	3.908	4.038
6.125	5.529	5.579	6.371	6.125	4.368	4.418	4.548
6.000	6.191	6.241	7.092	6.000	4.851	4.901	5.031

 

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-2.002	-1.952	-1.822	7.500	-1.836	-1.786	-1.656
7.375	-1.732	-1.682	-1.552	7.375	-1.579	-1.529	-1.399
7.250	-1.349	-1.299	-1.169	7.250	-1.199	-1.149	-1.019
7.125	-0.924	-0.874	-0.744	7.125	-0.774	-0.724	-0.594
7.000	-0.979	-0.929	-0.799	7.000	-0.841	-0.791	-0.661
6.875	-0.666	-0.616	-0.486	6.875	-0.543	-0.493	-0.363
6.750	-0.264	-0.214	-0.084	6.750	-0.146	-0.096	0.034
6.625	0.199	0.249	0.379	6.625	0.318	0.368	0.498
6.500	0.425	0.475	0.605	6.500	0.564	0.614	0.744
6.375	0.784	0.834	0.964	6.375	0.907	0.957	1.087
6.250	1.231	1.281	1.411	6.250	1.349	1.399	1.529
6.125	1.708	1.758	1.888	6.125	1.827	1.877	2.007
6.000	2.071	2.121	2.251	6.000	2.205	2.255	2.385
5.875	2.479	2.529	2.659	5.875	2.603	2.653	2.783
5.750	2.953	3.003	3.133	5.750	3.072	3.122	3.252
5.625	3.457	3.507	3.637	5.625	3.576	3.626	3.756
5.500	3.637	3.687	3.817	5.500	3.717	3.767	3.897
5.375	4.094	4.144	4.274	5.375	4.156	4.206	4.336
5.250	4.591	4.641	4.771	5.250	4.647	4.697	4.827
5.125	5.113	5.163	5.293	5.125	5.170	5.220	5.350
5.000	5.133	5.183	5.313	5.000	5.159	5.209	5.339

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	3.49%	4.60%	3.86%	29.26%	35.87%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.97% -0.06%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.97% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.31% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.40% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 8.05% -0.04 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.30% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.44% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/20 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.31% -0.04%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.63% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/19   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.70% +0.03 0.71 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% +0.01 1.04 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.56% -0.14 0.85 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/18

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 96.69 +0.19   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 96.69 +0.19 GNMA 6.0 97.33 +0.20 Pricing as of: 10/20 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.9140 -0.0760   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.077 -0.084 5 YR Treasury 4.855 -0.099 7 YR Treasury 4.917 -0.095 10 YR Treasury 4.914 -0.076 30 YR Treasury 5.076 -0.033 Pricing as of: 10/20 5:31PM EST