MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (475) 10.14. 2023

Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 November Coupon is currently down -4 BPS.

Genco Olive Oil: September Import Prices rose by only 0.1% on a MOM basis which was lighter than estimates of 0.5%. However, Export Prices shot up 0.7% which beat out estimates of 0.5%.

The Consumer: The preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index absolutely cratered… dropping to 63.0 from last month’s level of 68.1. One year inflation expectations rose from 3.2% to 3.8% and five year inflation expectations rose from 2.8% to 3.0%.

The Talking Fed: Philly Fed President Patrick Harker said disinflation is under way and reiterated that he favors holding interest rates where they are, barring a sharp change in data.

 

Treasuries across the curve declined today after increasing yesterday on the idea inflation was still an issue, although as we have been saying, inflation declined from August but didn’t satisfy traders. Today it’s the Israeli war, Israeli military told 1 million Palestinians to go south from Gaza, potential takeaway, Israel is about to attack with huge numbers of military assets.

The US bond market continues in very volatile conditions, we mentioned it numerous times, the government spending out of control and now the potential of a huge escalation of tensions are adding to the volatility as we saw yesterday and today. Policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and the flood of bond sales sending volatility to historic levels. The 30 year bond increased yesterday by 17 bps, today down 8 bps. The 30 year auction yesterday, one of the weakest auctions in years, given the wild swings this year and now the war investors are turning away from what is the safest investment in the world. To fund the massive deficits are expected to continue to increase, bond vigilantes are going to demand higher rates.

Next Week: Monday Oct Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday Sept retail sales, Sept industrial production and capacity utilization, Sept business inventories, Cot NAHB housing market index. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Sept housing starts and permits, Fed beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Oct Philadelphia Fed business index, Sept existing home sales, Sept leading economic indicators. Friday Sept budget statement (delayed from yesterday), the 2023 fiscal Treasury budget is expected to show a deficit of $1.7 trillion, $0.3 trillion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2022 according to the Congressional Budget Office.

This Week: The 10 year note this week declined 16 bps, the 2 year note -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 coupon increased 37 bps. The DJIA +262, NASDAQ -24, S&P +18. Gold and crude oil increased this week on geopolitical tensions, gold increased $97.00, crude oil increase $4.69. The dollar also increased for the same reason; the dollar index increased 0.59. Bitcoin took a huge hit, down 1.211.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM 10.13.2023

10 year note: 4.63% -8 bp

5 year note: 4.64% -5 bp

2 year note: 5.05% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.77% -9 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 99.80 -4 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 98.11 +18 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 96.65 +20 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.3048 +$0.0019

Dollar/Yen: 149.49 -0.32 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0514 -$0.0017

Dollar Index: 106.64 +0.04

Gold: $1941.30 +58.40

Bitcoin: 26,733 -4

Crude Oil: $87.57 +$4.66

DJIA: 33,670.29 +39.15

NASDAQ: 13,407.23 -166.98

S&P 500: 4327.78 -21.83

SOFR Data 10/13: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.32064, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.30568, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.20490, INDEX: 1.10199847

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	1,974.56	+13.62	+0.69%	+1.28%	+41.32%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	67,061.88	+379.23	+0.57%	+0.60%	+47.00%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,441.41	+18.39	+0.76%	+1.18%	+42.38%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0510	-0.0018	-0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.5700	-0.2400	-0.16%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2143	-0.0032	-0.26%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6296	-0.0018	-0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3660	-0.0030	-0.22%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9020	-0.0064	-0.70%	4:59 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	23.5014	0.0645	+0.28%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.6641	0.0499	+0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.3147	0.0033	+0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	369.5600	1.7900	+0.49%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	97.6942	-0.0376	-0.04%	12:08

 

 

USD-MXN

18.0895

0.1070

+0.60%

4:59 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.625	-3.401	-3.351	-3.221	8.625	-3.904	-3.854	-3.724
8.500	-3.202	-3.152	-3.022	8.500	-3.716	-3.666	-3.536
8.375	-2.858	-2.808	-2.678	8.375	-3.395	-3.345	-3.215
8.250	-2.460	-2.410	-2.280	8.250	-3.030	-2.980	-2.850
8.125	-2.564	-2.514	-2.384	8.125	-2.951	-2.901	-2.771
7.999	-2.337	-2.287	-2.157	7.999	-2.715	-2.665	-2.535
7.875	-1.945	-1.895	-1.765	7.875	-2.360	-2.310	-2.180
7.750	-1.492	-1.442	-1.312	7.750	-1.973	-1.923	-1.793
7.625	-1.470	-1.420	-1.290	7.625	-1.679	-1.629	-1.499
7.500	-1.205	-1.155	-1.025	7.500	-1.404	-1.354	-1.224
7.375	-0.756	-0.706	-0.576	7.375	-1.017	-0.967	-0.837
7.250	-0.239	-0.189	-0.059	7.250	-0.603	-0.553	-0.423
7.125	0.092	0.142	0.272	7.125	-0.177	-0.127	0.003
6.999	0.420	0.470	0.600	6.999	0.322	0.372	0.502
6.875	0.954	1.004	1.731	6.875	0.321	0.371	0.501
6.750	1.551	1.601	1.714	6.750	0.756	0.806	0.936
6.625	1.534	1.584	2.139	6.625	1.199	1.249	1.379
6.500	1.959	2.009	2.792	6.500	1.338	1.388	1.518
6.375	2.612	2.662	3.508	6.375	1.747	1.797	1.927
6.250	3.328	3.378	3.901	6.250	2.234	2.284	2.414
6.125	3.721	3.771	4.464	6.125	2.698	2.748	2.878
6.000	4.284	4.334	5.190	6.000	3.153	3.203	3.333

 

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-1.699	-1.649	-1.519	7.500	-1.534	-1.484	-1.354
7.375	-1.468	-1.418	-1.288	7.375	-1.315	-1.265	-1.135
7.250	-1.105	-1.055	-0.925	7.250	-0.955	-0.905	-0.775
7.125	-0.700	-0.650	-0.520	7.125	-0.550	-0.500	-0.370
7.000	-1.348	-1.298	-1.168	7.000	-1.213	-1.163	-1.033
6.875	-1.081	-1.031	-0.901	6.875	-0.959	-0.909	-0.779
6.750	-0.691	-0.641	-0.511	6.750	-0.573	-0.523	-0.393
6.625	-0.248	-0.198	-0.068	6.625	-0.129	-0.079	0.051
6.500	-0.282	-0.232	-0.102	6.500	-0.146	-0.096	0.034
6.375	0.017	0.067	0.197	6.375	0.139	0.189	0.319
6.250	0.449	0.499	0.629	6.250	0.568	0.618	0.748
6.125	0.914	0.964	1.094	6.125	1.033	1.083	1.213
6.000	1.035	1.085	1.215	6.000	1.173	1.223	1.353
5.875	1.379	1.429	1.559	5.875	1.502	1.552	1.682
5.750	1.829	1.879	2.009	5.750	1.947	1.997	2.127
5.625	2.318	2.368	2.498	5.625	2.437	2.487	2.617
5.500	2.433	2.483	2.613	5.500	2.510	2.560	2.690
5.375	2.828	2.878	3.008	5.375	2.889	2.939	3.069
5.250	3.304	3.354	3.484	5.250	3.360	3.410	3.540
5.125	3.817	3.867	3.997	5.125	3.873	3.923	4.053
5.000	3.844	3.894	4.024	5.000	3.868	3.918	4.048
4.875	4.265	4.315	4.445	4.875	4.270	4.320	4.450

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	3.49%	4.60%	3.86%	29.26%	35.87%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.66% -0.03%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.66% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.01% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.12% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.84% -0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.12% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.14% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.01% -0.01%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.57% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/12   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.67% +0.14 0.75 15 Yr. Fixed 6.97% +0.11 1.18 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.70% +0.19 0.57 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/11

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.09 +0.13   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.09 +0.13 GNMA 6.0 98.67 +0.08 Pricing as of: 10/13 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6190 -0.0780   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.056 -0.015 5 YR Treasury 4.644 -0.050 7 YR Treasury 4.655 -0.069 10 YR Treasury 4.619 -0.078 30 YR Treasury 4.760 -0.095 Pricing as of: 10/13 5:31PM EST