MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (474) 10.07. 2023

MBS OVERVIEW

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You read the official BLS release here. The following is the Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

September Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was 336K vs est of 170K.

August NFP were revised upward from 187K to 227K.

July NFP was revised upward from 157K to 236K.

The rolling three month average is now an incredulous 266K.

Wages:

The national Average Hourly Earnings Rate increased by 7 cents to $33.88.

Average Hourly Earnings on a MOM basis increased by 0.2% which matched August’s pace.

Average Hourly Earnings on YOY basis increased by 4.2% vs August’s pace of 4.3%.

Unemployment:

The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate moved lower from 7.1% down to 7.0%.

The Laborfoce Participation Rate remained at 62.8%.

The Talking Fed: Today we will hear from Fed Governor Waller.

Consumer Affairs: We will get the August Consumer Credit Change at 3 pm ET today.

Questions about my commentary? No problem, email me at [email protected] and I will do my best to answer your questions.

Over twice as many NFP jobs than were expected, +336K with estimates at 160K. Private jobs thought to be +150K increases 263K. The increase above estimates is as wide as we have seen in over a year, the average job gains over the last 12 months 267K. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported. The major labor market indicators from the survey of households showed little or no change over the month. The unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.4 million. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.4 percent, were unchanged over the month. If there is anything positive about the report is that wages didn’t increase.

The initial reaction to the data was, as usual, volatile; the 10 year note increased 11 bps then dropped back to +4 bps before exploding back to 4.85% +14 bps. The government figures, along with other data like the recent pickup in job openings, add to the case for central bank officials to raise interest rates — already at a 22-year high — by another quarter percentage point this year. 4.85% is a new high.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -86, NASDAQ -56, S&P -17. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.83% +12 bps. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -52 bps, 65 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. The 6.0 coupon -61 bps.-49 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 3 pm today August consumer credit data will be released, overall credit expected at $11.5B from $10.4B; what we are interested in in the data is the revolving credit data, credit cards.

Will the 10 year note climb to 5.0% as an increasing number of economists and investors are beginning to speculate? Next Wednesday and Thursday inflation reports, PPI and CPI will be reported, the results will determine whether the Fed goes another 25 bps next month. Let’s also not overlook the debt mess that is gaining momentum with another debt ceiling decision in less than 40 days from now and no Republican leadership.

CENY @ 10:00 AM 10.06.2023

10 year note: 4.80% +8 bp

5 year note: 4.76% +34 bp

2 year note: 5.08% +6 bp

30 year bond: 4.97% +11 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 99.38 -52 bp (-65 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 97.42 -61 bp (-49 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 95.59 -74 bp (-77 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar Index: 106.78 +0.45

Gold: $1845.20 +$13.40

Bitcoin: 27,564 +95

Crude Oil: $82.79 +0.48

DJIA: 33408 +288

NASDAQ: 13431 +212

S&P 500: 4309 +50

SOFR Data 10/06: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.31872, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.28578, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.18469, INDEX: 1.10086147

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	1,870.43	+5.78	+0.31%	-4.48%	+31.92%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	63,903.35	+103.58	+0.16%	-4.26%	+35.10%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,312.18	+6.72	+0.29%	-4.47%	+32.98%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0586	0.0036	+0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.3200	0.8100	+0.55%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2237	0.0045	+0.37%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6386	0.0016	+0.25%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3661	-0.0044	-0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9098	-0.0025	-0.27%	4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.1024	-0.0614	-0.27%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.4584	-0.0973	-0.34%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.3278	-0.0348	-0.80%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	365.4800	-2.0700	-0.56%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	100.8995	0.8433	+0.84%	2:43 PM

USD-MXN

18.1655

-0.0958

-0.52%

4:59 P

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.81% +0.12%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	7.81%	+0.12	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	7.12%	+0.11	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	7.22%	+0.10	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.90%	+0.16	0.00
5/1 ARM	7.12%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. VA	7.24%	+0.10	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/6

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

7.12% +0.11%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	7.49%	+0.18	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.78%	+0.06	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/5

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	7.41%	+0.10	0.71
15 Yr. Fixed	6.73%	+0.11	1.17
30 Yr. Jumbo	7.34%	+0.02	0.78
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/27

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0

97.63 -0.33

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 6.0	97.63	-0.33
GNMA 6.0	98.11	-0.25
Pricing as of: 10/6 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.7990 +0.0800

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	5.090	+0.065
5 YR Treasury	4.760	+0.071
7 YR Treasury	4.809	+0.078
10 YR Treasury	4.799	+0.080
30 YR Treasury	4.962	+0.071
Pricing as of: 10/6 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

8.625

-3.703

-3.653

-3.523

8.625

-4.166

-4.116

-3.986

8.500

-3.511

-3.461

-3.331

8.500

-3.977

-3.927

-3.797

8.375

-3.162

-3.112

-2.982

8.375

-3.655

-3.605

-3.475

8.250

-2.753

-2.703

-2.573

8.250

-3.290

-3.240

-3.110

8.125

-2.829

-2.779

-2.649

8.125

-3.148

-3.098

-2.968

7.999

-2.605

-2.555

-2.425

7.999

-2.912

-2.862

-2.732

7.875

-2.190

-2.140

-2.010

7.875

-2.546

-2.496

-2.366

7.750

-1.730

-1.680

-1.550

7.750

-2.169

-2.119

-1.989

7.625

-1.392

-1.342

-1.212

7.625

-1.742

-1.692

-1.562

7.500

-1.136

-1.086

-0.956

7.500

-1.298

-1.248

-1.118

7.375

-0.668

-0.618

-0.488

7.375

-0.847

-0.797

-0.667

7.250

-0.131

-0.081

0.049

7.250

-0.443

-0.393

-0.263

7.125

0.182

0.232

0.362

7.125

-0.016

0.034

0.164

6.999

0.497

0.547

0.677

6.999

0.505

0.555

0.685

6.875

1.051

1.101

1.843

6.875

0.494

0.544

0.674

6.750

1.663

1.713

2.097

6.750

0.951

1.001

1.131

6.625

1.917

1.967

2.516

6.625

1.375

1.425

1.555

6.500

2.336

2.386

3.204

6.500

1.789

1.839

1.969

6.375

3.024

3.074

3.955

6.375

2.192

2.242

2.372

6.250

3.775

3.825

4.320

6.250

2.680

2.730

2.860

6.125

4.140

4.190

4.884

6.125

3.144

3.194

3.324

6.000

4.704

4.754

5.610

6.000

3.599

3.649

3.779

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-1.595	-1.545	-1.415	7.500	-1.430	-1.380	-1.250
7.375	-1.364	-1.314	-1.184	7.375	-1.210	-1.160	-1.030
7.250	-1.000	-0.950	-0.820	7.250	-0.850	-0.800	-0.670
7.125	-0.595	-0.545	-0.415	7.125	-0.445	-0.395	-0.265
7.000	-1.209	-1.159	-1.029	7.000	-1.074	-1.024	-0.894
6.875	-0.941	-0.891	-0.761	6.875	-0.818	-0.768	-0.638
6.750	-0.549	-0.499	-0.369	6.750	-0.431	-0.381	-0.251
6.625	-0.105	-0.055	0.075	6.625	0.013	0.063	0.193
6.500	-0.050	0.000	0.130	6.500	0.087	0.137	0.267
6.375	0.249	0.299	0.429	6.375	0.372	0.422	0.552
6.250	0.682	0.732	0.862	6.250	0.801	0.851	0.981
6.125	1.147	1.197	1.327	6.125	1.266	1.316	1.446
6.000	1.325	1.375	1.505	6.000	1.463	1.513	1.643
5.875	1.669	1.719	1.849	5.875	1.792	1.842	1.972
5.750	2.118	2.168	2.298	5.750	2.236	2.286	2.416
5.625	2.607	2.657	2.787	5.625	2.726	2.776	2.906
5.500	2.879	2.929	3.059	5.500	2.956	3.006	3.136
5.375	3.279	3.329	3.459	5.375	3.340	3.390	3.520
5.250	3.753	3.803	3.933	5.250	3.810	3.860	3.990
5.125	4.265	4.315	4.445	5.125	4.321	4.371	4.501
5.000	4.243	4.293	4.423	5.000	4.267	4.317	4.447
4.875	4.663	4.713	4.843	4.875	4.668	4.718	4.848