Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 October Coupon is currently up +10 BPS.
Rosie the Riveter: The Preliminary Markit S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI showed continued contraction with a reading below 50 but on the plus side it was 48.9 versus Augusts’ level of 47.9. On the Services side, the PMI was expansionary with a reading above 50. However, it was lower than Augusts’ pace (50.2 versus 50.5)
The Talking Fed: S.F. Fed President Mary Daly (non voting member) said that she is not sure if the Fed needs to hold rates or do more but she feels that they are close to their destination.
Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at -0.1%.
Reprised from this morning. It has been a hell of a week, the 10 year has increased from 4.33% last Friday to 4.48% yesterday, mortgage rates well over 7.0% now, housing demand slowing. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.19% as of Sept. 21, according to data released by Freddie Mac yesterday, the highest in over a month. A year ago, the 30-year mortgage rate was averaging 6.29%; the average rate on the 15-year mortgage was 6.54%, up from 6.51% last week. The 15-year was at 5.44% a year ago. Another source, Mortgage News Daily, more accurate, said yesterday 30 year rates at 7.33%. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said he’s expecting rates to go to 8% if the yield on the 10-year Treasury note keeps climbing and has topped 4.5%.
Nothing new today. The 10 declined 4 bps and MBS prices increased, +14 bps from 9:30 am price levels. Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 before settling back to 4.44% as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation. No progress from Republicans on the expiring debt ceiling a week from now (Sept 30th).
Next Week: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday 2 year note auction, July Case/Shiller home price index, Sept consumer confidence index, August new home sales. Wednesday 5 year note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications, August durable goods orders. Thursday 7 year note auction, Final Q2 GDP, weekly jobless claims, August pending home sales. August PCE inflation, August personal income and spending, Sept Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, final Sept U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Markets rocked this week when the Fed officials said inflation will last longer than the thinking was a month ago.
This Week: The 10 year note increased 11 bps, the 2 year note +7 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -28 bps, the 5.5 coupon -49 bps. The DJIA -654, NASDAQ -496, S&P -130. Gold this week unchanged, crude oil -$0.63. The dollar generally unchanged, bitcoin +149.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
WE FLOATED TODAY AND WILL FLOAT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.44% -5 bp
5 year note: 4.57% -6 bp
2 year note: 5.10% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.52% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.36 +28 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 97.55 +32 bp (20 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 97.85 +24 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yuan: $7.2982 -$0.0097
Dollar/Yen: 148.37 +0.80 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0648 -$0.0015
Dollar Index: 105.57 +0.21
Gold: $1944.80 +$5.20
Bitcoin: 26,578 -27
Crude Oil: $90.45 +$0.82
DJIA: 33,963.84 -106.58
NASDAQ: 13,211.81 -12.18
S&P 500: 4320.06 -9.94
SOFR Data 09/22: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.31495, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.24661, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.14622, INDEX: 1.09858993
Poland
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
1,949.25 | -0.31 | -0.02% | -3.00% | +28.39% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
66,519.31 | -9.41 | -0.01% | -2.41% | +33.67% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,412.09 | -3.72 | -0.15% | -3.18% | +29.64% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0643 | -0.0018 | -0.17% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
148.4000 | 0.8100 | +0.55% | 4:33 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2238 | -0.0060 | -0.49% | 4:33 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6442 | 0.0026 | +0.41% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3477 | -0.0006 | -0.04% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.9072 | 0.0027 | +0.30% | 4:33 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
22.9605 | 0.0232 | +0.10% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
28.3067 | 0.0493 | +0.17% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.3253 | -0.0040 | -0.09% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
366.1000 | 2.2300 | +0.61% | 4:32 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
95.7776 | -0.3107 | -0.32% | 12:04 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.2048 | -0.0283 | -0.16% | 4:34 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 8.625 | -4.240 | -4.190 | -4.060 | 8.625 | -4.773 | -4.723 | -4.593 |
| 8.500 | -4.042 | -3.992 | -3.862 | 8.500 | -4.585 | -4.535 | -4.405 |
| 8.375 | -3.714 | -3.664 | -3.534 | 8.375 | -4.273 | -4.223 | -4.093 |
| 8.250 | -3.312 | -3.262 | -3.132 | 8.250 | -3.897 | -3.847 | -3.717 |
| 8.125 | -3.490 | -3.440 | -3.310 | 8.125 | -3.900 | -3.850 | -3.720 |
| 7.999 | -3.262 | -3.212 | -3.082 | 7.999 | -3.664 | -3.614 | -3.484 |
| 7.875 | -2.877 | -2.827 | -2.697 | 7.875 | -3.308 | -3.258 | -3.128 |
| 7.750 | -2.430 | -2.380 | -2.250 | 7.750 | -2.920 | -2.870 | -2.740 |
| 7.625 | -2.569 | -2.519 | -2.389 | 7.625 | -2.792 | -2.742 | -2.612 |
| 7.500 | -2.309 | -2.259 | -2.129 | 7.500 | -2.516 | -2.466 | -2.336 |
| 7.375 | -1.865 | -1.815 | -1.685 | 7.375 | -2.128 | -2.078 | -1.948 |
| 7.250 | -1.352 | -1.302 | -1.172 | 7.250 | -1.714 | -1.664 | -1.534 |
| 7.125 | -1.489 | -1.439 | -1.309 | 7.125 | -1.605 | -1.555 | -1.425 |
| 6.999 | -1.157 | -1.107 | -0.977 | 6.999 | -1.265 | -1.215 | -1.085 |
| 6.875 | -0.641 | -0.591 | 0.123 | 6.875 | -1.256 | -1.206 | -1.076 |
| 6.750 | -0.057 | -0.007 | 0.031 | 6.750 | -0.830 | -0.780 | -0.650 |
| 6.625 | -0.149 | -0.099 | 0.448 | 6.625 | -0.387 | -0.337 | -0.207 |
| 6.500 | 0.268 | 0.318 | 1.109 | 6.500 | -0.331 | -0.281 | -0.151 |
| 6.375 | 0.929 | 0.979 | 1.839 | 6.375 | 0.077 | 0.127 | 0.257 |
| 6.250 | 1.659 | 1.709 | 1.934 | 6.250 | 0.565 | 0.615 | 0.745 |
| 6.125 | 1.754 | 1.804 | 2.497 | 6.125 | 1.029 | 1.079 | 1.209 |
| 6.000 | 2.317 | 2.367 | 3.223 | 6.000 | 1.484 | 1.534 | 1.664 |
| 5.875 | 3.043 | 3.093 | 3.914 | 5.875 | 2.020 | 2.070 | 2.200 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -1.926 | -1.876 | -1.746 | 7.000 | -1.791 | -1.741 | -1.611 |
| 6.875 | -1.659 | -1.609 | -1.479 | 6.875 | -1.536 | -1.486 | -1.356 |
| 6.750 | -1.268 | -1.218 | -1.088 | 6.750 | -1.149 | -1.099 | -0.969 |
| 6.625 | -0.824 | -0.774 | -0.644 | 6.625 | -0.705 | -0.655 | -0.525 |
| 6.500 | -1.165 | -1.115 | -0.985 | 6.500 | -1.028 | -0.978 | -0.848 |
| 6.375 | -0.866 | -0.816 | -0.686 | 6.375 | -0.743 | -0.693 | -0.563 |
| 6.250 | -0.433 | -0.383 | -0.253 | 6.250 | -0.314 | -0.264 | -0.134 |
| 6.125 | 0.032 | 0.082 | 0.212 | 6.125 | 0.151 | 0.201 | 0.331 |
| 6.000 | -0.011 | 0.039 | 0.169 | 6.000 | 0.127 | 0.177 | 0.307 |
| 5.875 | 0.334 | 0.384 | 0.514 | 5.875 | 0.457 | 0.507 | 0.637 |
| 5.750 | 0.783 | 0.833 | 0.963 | 5.750 | 0.902 | 0.952 | 1.082 |
| 5.625 | 1.273 | 1.323 | 1.453 | 5.625 | 1.391 | 1.441 | 1.571 |
| 5.500 | 1.386 | 1.436 | 1.566 | 5.500 | 1.463 | 1.513 | 1.643 |
| 5.375 | 1.782 | 1.832 | 1.962 | 5.375 | 1.843 | 1.893 | 2.023 |
| 5.250 | 2.260 | 2.310 | 2.440 | 5.250 | 2.316 | 2.366 | 2.496 |
| 5.125 | 2.775 | 2.825 | 2.955 | 5.125 | 2.831 | 2.881 | 3.011 |
| 5.000 | 2.935 | 2.985 | 3.115 | 5.000 | 2.959 | 3.009 | 3.139 |
| 4.875 | 3.356 | 3.406 | 3.536 | 4.875 | 3.361 | 3.411 | 3.541 |
| 4.750 | 3.867 | 3.917 | 4.047 | 4.750 | 3.867 | 3.917 | 4.047 |
| 4.625 | 4.395 | 4.445 | 4.575 | 4.625 | 4.395 | 4.445 | 4.575 |
| 4.500 | 4.758 | 4.808 | 4.938 | 4.500 | 4.723 | 4.773 | 4.903 |
| 4.375 | 5.217 | 5.267 | 5.397 | 4.375 | 5.161 | 5.211 | 5.341 |