MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (471) 09.16. 2023

Market Wrap-up

 

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 October Coupon is currently down -12 BPS.

Genco Olive Oil: Import Prices MOM rose by 0.5% versus estimates of 0.3% and Export Prices increased by 1.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Rosie the Riveter: The September Empire Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside, up +1.9 versus estimates of -10. August Industrial Production was 0.4% versus estimates of 0.1% and Capacity Utilization was 79.7% versus estimates of 79.3%

Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary September UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was dismal, dropping to 67.7 from 69.5. The 5 year inflation expectations dropped from 3.0% to 2.7%

Volatility in the stock market is increasing, yesterday the DJIA increased 332, today at one point down over 300 points. This morning more confirming news consumers are not feeling as good as market bulls’ tout. The U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined over the last two weeks, at the end of August the headline sentiment index was 69.9, the estimate for the mid-month was 69.2, the index dropped to 67.7, the economic condition index 69.8 down from 75.7, consumer expectations did increase to 66.3 from 65.5. A bright spot, the outlook for inflation in August was 3.5%, now 3.1%. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86.

Next Week’s Calendar: the headline as you know, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Monday, Sept NAHB housing market index. Tuesday August housing starts and permits. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Sept Philadelphia Fed business index, Q2 current account balance, August existing home sales, August leading economic indicators. Friday S&P global US manufacturing index, S&P global US services index.

This Week: The 10 year note yield this week increased 7 bps, the 2 year note +7 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon declined 24 bps. The DJIA +41, NASDAQ -54, S&P -7. Gold increased $2.00, crude oil increased $3.71, The dollar index +0.46, no stopping the dollar. Bitcoin increased 574.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

LOCK EVERYTHING. FOMC NEXT WEEK WON’T SUPPORT LOWER RATES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.33% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.46% +4 bp

2 year note: 5.03% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.42% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.63 -28 bp (-18 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 98.04 -27 bp (-18 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 98.46 -26 bp (-29 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2749 -$0.0019

Dollar/Yen: 147.84 +0.36 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0661 +$0.0019

Dollar Index: 105.31 -0.10

Gold: $1944.60 +$11.80

Bitcoin: 26,429 -123

Crude Oil: $91.08 +$0.92

DJIA: 34,618.24 -288.87

NASDAQ: 13,708.33 -217.72

S&P 500: 4450.32 -54.78

SOFR Data 09/15: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.31328, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.22634, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.12030, INDEX: 1.09745698

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	1,975.05	+7.28	+0.37%	-5.36%	+28.27%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	67,368.13	+168.25	+0.25%	-3.96%	+33.21%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,445.13	+7.51	+0.31%	-5.37%	+29.29%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE		CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0657		0.0014	+0.13%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	147.8500		0.3800	+0.26%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2383		-0.0026	-0.21%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6432		-0.0008	-0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3525		0.0017	+0.13%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8969		0.0013	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN		17.0784	-0.0318	-0.19%	4:59

 

 

USD-CZK	23.0551	-0.0019	-0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.2686	-0.0373	-0.13%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.3568	0.0032	+0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	359.6000	-1.3900	-0.39%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	96.6970	0.3157	+0.33%	11:37 AM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR							ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
8.625	-4.163		-4.113		-3.983		8.625		-4.770		-4.720		-4.590
8.500	-3.956		-3.906		-3.776		8.500		-4.552		-4.502		-4.372
8.375	-3.632		-3.582		-3.452		8.375		-4.239		-4.189		-4.059
8.250	-3.380		-3.330		-3.200		8.250		-4.002		-3.952		-3.822
8.125	-3.339		-3.289		-3.159		8.125		-3.867		-3.817		-3.687
7.999	-3.119		-3.069		-2.939		7.999		-3.617		-3.567		-3.437
7.875	-2.769		-2.719		-2.589		7.875		-3.277		-3.227		-3.097
7.750	-2.415		-2.365		-2.235		7.750		-2.960		-2.910		-2.780
7.625	-2.384		-2.334		-2.204		7.625		-2.753		-2.703		-2.573
7.500	-2.166		-2.116		-1.986		7.500		-2.477		-2.427		-2.297
7.375	-1.757		-1.707		-1.577		7.375		-2.118		-2.068		-1.938
7.250	-1.468		-1.418		-1.288		7.250		-1.898		-1.848		-1.718
7.125	-1.400		-1.350		-1.220		7.125		-1.644		-1.594		-1.464
6.999	-1.232		-1.182		-1.052		6.999		-1.440		-1.390		-1.260
6.875	-0.731		-0.681		-0.114		6.875		-1.441		-1.391		-1.261
6.750	-0.294		-0.244		-0.055		6.750		-1.037		-0.987		-0.857
6.625	-0.235		-0.185		0.149		6.625		-0.732		-0.682		-0.552
6.500	-0.031		0.019		0.772		6.500		-0.579		-0.529		-0.399
6.375	0.592		0.642		1.347		6.375		-0.294		-0.244		-0.114
6.250	1.167		1.217		1.416		6.250		0.166		0.216		0.346
6.125	1.236		1.286		1.895		6.125		0.518		0.568		0.698
6.000	1.715		1.765		2.621		6.000		1.036		1.086		1.216
5.875	2.441		2.491		3.312		5.875		1.476		1.526		1.656
ELITE 11-15 YEAR								ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY		RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.000		-2.003		-1.953		-1.823		7.000		-1.870		-1.820		-1.690
6.875		-1.738		-1.688		-1.558		6.875		-1.616		-1.566		-1.436
6.750		-1.351		-1.301		-1.171		6.750		-1.232		-1.182		-1.052
6.625		-1.206		-1.156		-1.026		6.625		-1.087		-1.037		-0.907
6.500		-0.797		-0.747		-0.617		6.500		-0.674		-0.624		-0.494
6.375		-0.766		-0.716		-0.586		6.375		-0.634		-0.584		-0.454
6.250		-0.443		-0.393		-0.263		6.250		-0.325		-0.275		-0.145
6.125		-0.059		-0.009		0.121		6.125		0.059		0.109		0.239
6.000		0.008		0.058		0.188		6.000		0.145		0.195		0.325
5.875		0.180		0.230		0.360		5.875		0.312		0.362		0.492
5.750		0.609		0.659		0.789		5.750		0.727		0.777		0.907
5.625		1.025		1.075		1.205		5.625		1.123		1.173		1.303
5.500		1.081		1.131		1.261		5.500		1.176		1.226		1.356
5.375		1.397		1.447		1.577		5.375		1.458		1.508		1.638
5.250		1.863		1.913		2.043		5.250		1.919		1.969		2.099
5.125		2.265		2.315		2.445		5.125		2.291		2.341		2.471
5.000		2.391		2.441		2.571		5.000		2.414		2.464		2.594
4.875		2.808		2.858		2.988		4.875		2.812		2.862		2.992
4.750		3.306		3.356		3.486		4.750		3.306		3.356		3.486
4.625		3.832		3.882		4.012		4.625		3.812		3.862		3.992
4.500		4.152		4.202		4.332		4.500		4.145		4.195		4.325
4.375		4.607		4.657		4.787		4.375		4.551		4.601		4.731
4.250		5.262		5.312		5.442		4.250		5.200		5.250		5.380

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.29% +0.05%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.29% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.64% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.75% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.34% +0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.09% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.75% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 9/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.64% +0.05%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.18% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.51% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/14   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.16% +0.07 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.57% +0.06 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.11% +0.07 0.55 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/16

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.58 -0.33   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.58 -0.33 GNMA 6.0 99.89 -0.34 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3280 +0.0420   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.035 +0.021 5 YR Treasury 4.460 +0.041 7 YR Treasury 4.416 +0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.328 +0.042 30 YR Treasury 4.417 +0.037 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:31PM EST