Market Wrap-up
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 June Coupon is down -17 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary May UofM Consumer Sentiment Index tanked down to 57.7 from 63.5 in April. Their 5 year inflation expectations jumped from 3.0% to 3.2% and 1 year from 4.5% to 4.6%
Genco Olive Oil: April Import Prices increased by 0.2% which is a reversal after March’s decline of -0.8%. Same goes for Export Prices which were up 0.2% after being down -0.6% in the prior month.
The Talking Fed: Fed Gov Bowman said that “Should inflation remain high and the labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to lower inflation over time.” Which means that she is in the camp of the Fed being in the position to continue to hike before pausing. Today we will also hear from Bullard and Jefferson but till after the market closes.
Yellen is Yelling: Treas Sec Janet Yellen said that the regional banks are under stress and she once again stumped for raising the debt ceiling ASAP.
Nice gains this week but we lost half of them today when the 10 year jumped at 10:30 am ET lenders re-priced lower. The 10 year not has found another resistance at 3.36%. This morning the 10 began unchanged, MBSs at 9:30 am -6 bps, by 10:30 am the note increased to 3.40%, MBSs down 12 bps. A delayed trade after weaker than thought U. of Michigan consumer sentiment data that finally showed consumers are becoming concerned, the headline sentiment index declined from 63.5 three weeks ago to 57.7, a huge decline, import and export prices declined yet rates couldn’t hold the lows.
We focused on the headlines, but in the deeper guts showed consumers expect prices to rise at a 3.2% annual rate over the next five to 10 years, the highest since 2011. The rate markets were extended, the increase in what consumers expect was the straw. Consumers when looking out that long shouldn’t be relied on, but after rates had declined through the week investors and traders were looking for a reason to take those gains.
Yellen issued another warning on raising the debt ceiling; “If Congress fails to do that, it really impairs our credit rating,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We have to default on some obligation, whether it’s Treasuries or payments to Social Security recipients.”
Despite the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening cycle in decades, inflation is still too high, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said in PBS interview. “You don’t want to land the plane nose down. So, we’re trying to balance off — can we slow the inflation without sending it into a recession.”??
Next Week’s Calendar doesn’t have much inflation news. Monday May Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday April retail sales, April industrial production and capacity utilization, March business inventories, May NAHB housing market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, April housing starts and permits. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May Philadelphia Fed business index. Nothing on Friday.
This Week: The 10 year note on the week increased 3 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week increased 17 bps. The DJIA -373, NASDAQ +50, S&P -12. Gold this week down$8.00, holding well with the dollar increasing. Crude oil-$1.33. The dollar continued to increase this week, the dollar index increased 1.42, a big jump. Bitcoin declined 3,362 this week.
10 year note at 4:00 pm; the spike driven by consumer forecasts for high inflation outlooks (see above)
CENY @ 4:00 PM 05.12.2023
10 year note: 3.47% +8 bp
5 year note: 3.44% +8 bp
2 year note: 3.99% +8 bp
30 year bond: 3.78% +4 bp
Libor Rates: 1 month 5.107%; 3 month 5.321%; 6 month 5.349%; 1 year 5.2.66% (5/11/23)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.73 -23 bp (-17 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.59 -39 bp (-33 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.41 -31 bp (-25 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.9582 +$0.0095
Dollar/Yen: 135.69 +1.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0853 -$0.0064
Dollar Index: 102.67 +0.61
Gold: $2017.60 -$2.90
Bitcoin: 26,124 -903
Crude Oil: $70.14 -$0.73
DJIA: 33,300.62 -8.89
NASDAQ: 12,284.74 -43.67
S&P 500: 4124.08 -6.54
SOFR Data 05/12: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.88064, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.74543, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.48306, INDEX: 1.07784037
Poland
| NAME | VALUE | NET CHANGE | % CHANGE | 1 MONTH | 1 YEAR | TIME (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
1,939.03 | +20.32 | +1.06% | +4.57% | +9.82% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
63,669.39 | +525.29 | +0.83% | +3.88% | +15.46% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
2,390.37 | +23.54 | +0.99% | +4.63% | +10.65% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | NET CHANGE | TIME (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.0849 | -0.0067 | -0.61% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
135.7000 | 1.1700 | +0.87% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.2458 | -0.0053 | -0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6646 | -0.0056 | -0.84% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3550 | 0.0059 | +0.44% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8975 | 0.0033 | +0.37% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.7549 | 0.1845 | +0.86% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
27.7683 | 0.1691 | +0.61% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
4.1634 | 0.0049 | +0.12% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
341.4100 | 1.3400 | +0.39% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
77.6382 | 0.7433 | +0.97% | 2:28 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.5932 | 0.0149 | +0.08% | 4:59 PM |
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POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | ELITE 16-20 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.625 | -3.923 | -3.873 | -3.743 | 7.625 | -4.401 | -4.351 | -4.221 |
| 7.500 | -3.712 | -3.662 | -3.532 | 7.500 | -4.162 | -4.112 | -3.982 |
| 7.375 | -3.352 | -3.302 | -3.172 | 7.375 | -3.790 | -3.740 | -3.610 |
| 7.250 | -3.251 | -3.201 | -3.071 | 7.250 | -3.709 | -3.659 | -3.529 |
| 7.125 | -3.076 | -3.026 | -2.896 | 7.125 | -3.534 | -3.484 | -3.354 |
| 6.999 | -2.970 | -2.920 | -2.790 | 6.999 | -3.381 | -3.331 | -3.201 |
| 6.875 | -2.566 | -2.516 | -2.386 | 6.875 | -3.044 | -2.994 | -2.864 |
| 6.750 | -2.419 | -2.369 | -2.239 | 6.750 | -2.995 | -2.945 | -2.815 |
| 6.625 | -2.197 | -2.147 | -2.017 | 6.625 | -2.774 | -2.724 | -2.594 |
| 6.500 | -2.133 | -2.083 | -1.953 | 6.500 | -2.720 | -2.670 | -2.540 |
| 6.375 | -1.676 | -1.626 | -1.496 | 6.375 | -2.261 | -2.211 | -2.081 |
| 6.250 | -1.465 | -1.415 | -1.285 | 6.250 | -2.152 | -2.102 | -1.972 |
| 6.125 | -1.298 | -1.248 | -1.118 | 6.125 | -1.735 | -1.685 | -1.555 |
| 5.999 | -1.224 | -1.174 | -1.044 | 5.999 | -1.553 | -1.503 | -1.373 |
| 5.875 | -0.625 | -0.575 | -0.445 | 5.875 | -1.018 | -0.968 | -0.838 |
| 5.750 | -0.292 | -0.242 | -0.112 | 5.750 | -0.913 | -0.863 | -0.733 |
| 5.625 | -0.051 | -0.001 | 0.129 | 5.625 | -0.275 | -0.225 | -0.095 |
| 5.500 | 0.315 | 0.365 | 0.495 | 5.500 | 0.063 | 0.113 | 0.243 |
| 5.375 | 0.990 | 1.040 | 1.170 | 5.375 | 0.601 | 0.651 | 0.781 |
| 5.250 | 1.705 | 1.755 | 1.885 | 5.250 | 1.089 | 1.139 | 1.269 |
| 5.125 | 1.901 | 1.951 | 2.081 | 5.125 | 1.420 | 1.470 | 1.600 |
| 5.000 | 2.524 | 2.574 | 2.704 | 5.000 | 2.030 | 2.080 | 2.210 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | ELITE 8-10 YEAR | ||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.000 | -3.012 | -2.962 | -2.832 | 7.000 | -2.887 | -2.837 | -2.707 |
| 6.875 | -2.771 | -2.721 | -2.591 | 6.875 | -2.650 | -2.600 | -2.470 |
| 6.750 | -2.577 | -2.527 | -2.397 | 6.750 | -2.458 | -2.408 | -2.278 |
| 6.625 | -2.534 | -2.484 | -2.354 | 6.625 | -2.415 | -2.365 | -2.235 |
| 6.500 | -2.404 | -2.354 | -2.224 | 6.500 | -2.280 | -2.230 | -2.100 |
| 6.375 | -2.363 | -2.313 | -2.183 | 6.375 | -2.242 | -2.192 | -2.062 |
| 6.250 | -2.257 | -2.207 | -2.077 | 6.250 | -2.138 | -2.088 | -1.958 |
| 6.125 | -2.132 | -2.082 | -1.952 | 6.125 | -2.014 | -1.964 | -1.834 |
| 6.000 | -1.921 | -1.871 | -1.741 | 6.000 | -1.796 | -1.746 | -1.616 |
| 5.875 | -1.820 | -1.770 | -1.640 | 5.875 | -1.698 | -1.648 | -1.518 |
| 5.750 | -1.518 | -1.468 | -1.338 | 5.750 | -1.399 | -1.349 | -1.219 |
| 5.625 | -1.213 | -1.163 | -1.033 | 5.625 | -1.154 | -1.104 | -0.974 |
| 5.500 | -1.061 | -1.011 | -0.881 | 5.500 | -0.997 | -0.947 | -0.817 |
| 5.375 | -0.933 | -0.883 | -0.753 | 5.375 | -0.874 | -0.824 | -0.694 |
| 5.250 | -0.509 | -0.459 | -0.329 | 5.250 | -0.453 | -0.403 | -0.273 |
| 5.125 | -0.178 | -0.128 | 0.002 | 5.125 | -0.141 | -0.091 | 0.039 |
| 5.000 | -0.096 | -0.046 | 0.084 | 5.000 | -0.066 | -0.016 | 0.114 |
| 4.875 | 0.233 | 0.283 | 0.413 | 4.875 | 0.237 | 0.287 | 0.417 |
| 4.750 | 0.696 | 0.746 | 0.876 | 4.750 | 0.696 | 0.746 | 0.876 |
| 4.625 | 1.079 | 1.129 | 1.259 | 4.625 | 1.039 | 1.089 | 1.219 |
| 4.500 | 1.163 | 1.213 | 1.343 | 4.500 | 1.153 | 1.203 | 1.333 |
| 4.375 | 1.584 | 1.634 | 1.764 | 4.375 | 1.526 | 1.576 | 1.706 |