MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (451) 04.29. 2023

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Market Wrap-up

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 May Coupon is up +24 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The quarterly release of the Employment Cost Index for the 1st QTR showed a solid gain of 1.2% vs. est. of 1.1%.

Inflation Nation: March headline PCE showed a MOM gain of only 0.1% vs. est. of 0.3%. YOY, it was up 4.2% vs. est. of 4.6%. February was revised higher. Core (ex food and energy) PCE was up 0.3% on a MOM basis which matched forecasts. YOY, it was up 4.6% which was higher than est. of 4.5%, February was revised higher as well.

Its Personal: March Personal Incomes rose by 0.3% vs. est. of 0.2% and Personal Spending was flat at 0.0% vs. est. of -0.1%

Rosie the Riveter: The April Chicago PMI was much higher than expected, 48.6 vs. est. of 43.5 and a nice improvement over March’s 43.8 but it is still below 50.0 which is still contractionary.

Consumer Sentiment: The final revised April UofM Consumer Sentiment Index hit vs. 63.5 est. of 63.5

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at -0.1%

 

First Republic Bank is on the sales block. Its stock declined down 30% after declining 49% on Tuesday. It is an outlier but there are rumblings the Fed may pass increasing rates next week to shore up regional banks, then move 25 bps at the June meeting. We still hold the Fed will move next Wednesday. Michael Barr the Fed’s head of bank supervision is on a mission to increase regulations for bank liquidity. New and tighter regs on regional banks will increase the cost of borrowings. Barr focusing on additional capital or liquidity, or limit share buybacks, dividend payments or executive compensation, at firms with inadequate capital planning and risk management.

Next Week: Monday April HIS PMI manufacturing index, March construction spending, April ISM manufacturing index. Tuesday FOMC meeting begins, March factory orders, March JOLTS job openings. Wednesday April ADP private jobs, MBA mortgage apps, HIS PMI services index, FOMC policy statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs. Friday April employment data, March consumer credit.

This week: The 10 year note declined 14 bps this week. FNMA 6.0 and 5.5 coupons unchanged this week. The DJIA +289, NASDAQ +155, S&P +35. Gold this week +$5.00, crude oil-$1.10. The dollar choppy but ending the week about unchanged –0.11on the dollar index. Bitcoin strong this week increased 2,064.

The bellwether 10 year note remains in its two-month range and any buying stops when the note drops to 3.40%. The Fed next week holds the key to unlock rate declines. The trading range is long in the tooth, if it fails to crack 3.40% next week the likelihood is a move back toward the high of the range at 3.60%. Last Wednesday the 10 year yield dropped to test 3.40%, it failed and yesterday the note increased 8 bps to 3.53% from Wednesday’s close at 3.45% +5 bps from Tuesday.

 

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM 04.28.2023

10 year note: 3.43% -9 bp

5 year note: 3.51% -8 bp

2 year note: 4.03% -4 bp

30 year bond: 3.66% -10 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 54.034%; 3 month 5.299%; 6 month 5.387%; 1 year 5.321% (4/27/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.83 +16 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.80 +28 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.61 +22 bp (unch from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.9112 -$0.0116

Dollar/Yen: 136.16 +2.15 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1019 -$0.0011

Dollar Index: 101.64 +0.14

Gold: $1997.80 -$1.30

Bitcoin: 29,422 -174

Crude Oil: $76.69 +$1.93

DJIA: 34,098.16 +272.00

NASDAQ: 12,226.58 +84.35

S&P 500: 4169.48 +34.13

SOFR Data 04/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.82235, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.66845, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37377, INDEX: 1.07576689

 

Poland

NAME VALUE NET CHANGE % CHANGE 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

1,923.09 -24.98 -1.28% +9.36% +3.50% 11:15 AM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

62,948.50 -621.36 -0.98% +7.40% +8.99% 11:15 AM
WIG30:IND

WIG30

 

2,364.86 -29.44 -1.23% +9.01% +4.00% 11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE NET CHANGE TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD

 

1.1019 -0.0009 -0.08% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

136.3000 2.3300 +1.74% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2567 0.0069 +0.55% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6615 -0.0016 -0.24% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.3552 -0.0040 -0.29% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.8946 0.0002 +0.02% 4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

21.3513 0.0606 +0.28% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

27.3396 0.0226 +0.08% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.1604 0.0120 +0.29% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

338.6200 0.3000 +0.09% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

79.8783 -1.6560 -2.03% 3:48 PM

 

USD-MXN

 

18.0003 -0.0372 -0.21% 4:59

 

POZYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR    ELITE  16-20 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.625 -4.252 -4.157 -3.987 7.625 -4.923 -4.828 -4.658
7.500 -4.038 -3.943 -3.773 7.500 -4.683 -4.588 -4.418
7.375 -3.674 -3.579 -3.409 7.375 -4.308 -4.213 -4.043
7.250 -3.508 -3.413 -3.243 7.250 -4.163 -4.068 -3.898
7.125 -3.152 -3.057 -2.887 7.125 -3.807 -3.712 -3.542
6.999 -3.092 -2.997 -2.827 6.999 -3.703 -3.608 -3.438
6.875 -2.686 -2.591 -2.421 6.875 -3.292 -3.197 -3.027
6.750 -2.427 -2.332 -2.162 6.750 -3.129 -3.034 -2.864
6.625 -2.366 -2.271 -2.101 6.625 -3.060 -2.965 -2.795
6.500 -2.276 -2.181 -2.011 6.500 -2.964 -2.869 -2.699
6.375 -1.819 -1.724 -1.554 6.375 -2.602 -2.507 -2.337
6.250 -1.573 -1.478 -1.308 6.250 -2.466 -2.371 -2.201
6.125 -1.405 -1.310 -1.140 6.125 -2.059 -1.964 -1.794
5.999 -1.280 -1.185 -1.015 5.999 -1.835 -1.740 -1.570
5.875 -0.703 -0.608 -0.438 5.875 -1.447 -1.352 -1.182
5.750 -0.269 -0.174 -0.004 5.750 -1.095 -1.000 -0.830
5.625 -0.152 -0.057 0.113 5.625 -0.577 -0.482 -0.312
5.500 0.295 0.390 0.560 5.500 -0.157 -0.062 0.108
5.375 0.969 1.064 1.234 5.375 0.382 0.477 0.647
5.250 1.683 1.778 1.948 5.250 0.869 0.964 1.134
5.125 1.897 1.992 2.162 5.125 1.199 1.294 1.464
5.000 2.520 2.615 2.785 5.000 1.825 1.920 2.090

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR    ELITE  8-10 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.000 -3.329 -3.234 -3.064 7.000 -3.205 -3.110 -2.940
6.875 -3.256 -3.161 -2.991 6.875 -3.135 -3.040 -2.870
6.750 -3.139 -3.044 -2.874 6.750 -3.020 -2.925 -2.755
6.625 -3.064 -2.969 -2.799 6.625 -2.945 -2.850 -2.680
6.500 -2.640 -2.545 -2.375 6.500 -2.515 -2.420 -2.250
6.375 -2.596 -2.501 -2.331 6.375 -2.475 -2.380 -2.210
6.250 -2.384 -2.289 -2.119 6.250 -2.265 -2.170 -2.000
6.125 -2.008 -1.913 -1.743 6.125 -1.890 -1.795 -1.625
6.000 -1.847 -1.752 -1.582 6.000 -1.723 -1.628 -1.458
5.875 -1.764 -1.669 -1.499 5.875 -1.642 -1.547 -1.377
5.750 -1.455 -1.360 -1.190 5.750 -1.347 -1.252 -1.082
5.625 -1.305 -1.210 -1.040 5.625 -1.186 -1.091 -0.921
5.500 -1.038 -0.943 -0.773 5.500 -0.954 -0.859 -0.689
5.375 -0.959 -0.864 -0.694 5.375 -0.900 -0.805 -0.635
5.250 -0.535 -0.440 -0.270 5.250 -0.478 -0.383 -0.213
5.125 -0.464 -0.369 -0.199 5.125 -0.408 -0.313 -0.143
5.000 -0.059 0.036 0.206 5.000 -0.049 0.046 0.216
4.875 0.305 0.400 0.570 4.875 0.309 0.404 0.574
4.750 0.768 0.863 1.033 4.750 0.768 0.863 1.033
4.625 1.201 1.296 1.466 4.625 1.161 1.256 1.426
4.500 1.395 1.490 1.660 4.500 1.384 1.479 1.649
4.375 1.754 1.849 2.019 4.375 1.696 1.791 1.961

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.59% -0.08%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 6.59% -0.08 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.07 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.05 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.22% -0.03 0.00
5/1 ARM 6.78% -0.02 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.19% -0.05 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/28
15 Yr. Fixed Rate
5.98% -0.07%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.04 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.05 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/27

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.12 0.63
15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.14 0.56
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.12 0.50
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/26
MBS / Treasuries
UMBS 30YR 5.0
99.42 +0.36

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.0 99.42 +0.36
UMBS 5.5 100.80 +0.28
GNMA 5.0 99.47 +0.25
GNMA 5.5 100.63 +0.23
Pricing as of: 4/28 5:31PM EST
10 Year US Treasury
3.4277 -0.1003

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 4.009 -0.072
5 YR Treasury 3.486 -0.112
7 YR Treasury 3.465 -0.112
10 YR Treasury 3.428 -0.100
30 YR Treasury 3.678 -0.078
Pricing as of: 4/28 5:31PM EST