MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (450) 04.22. 2023

Market Wrap-up

 

The 10 dropped to 3.50% early this morning, lost all sellers and the rate increased to 3.57% and sat there the remainder of the day. The weekend, technical factors and the stronger than expected April PMI data this morning wrapped up a week that saw interest rates little changed from last Friday. It was a technical week more than any fundamental changes. The Fed will increase the FF rate on the 3rd of May, a week from this coming Wednesday. Rate hike expectations climbed a bit this week with the implied likelihood of a 25-bps increase in May climbing to 85.4% from 78.0% a week ago. The Fed won’t have much influence next week with officials on a self-imposed quiet period ahead of the FOMC. We don’t normally pay much attention to the 200-day average on the 10, our work is directed to short term movements, the 200 at 3.52% broke early today when the 10 fell to 3.50%; investors not ready to sell at that extreme with the FOMC on the horizon.

Next Week: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday $42B 2 year note auction, Feb Case/Shiller home price index, April consumer confidence, March new home sales. Wednesday $43B 5 year note auction, weekly MBA mortgage apps, March durable goods orders. Thursday $35B 7 year note auction, Q1 advance GDP, weekly jobless claims, March pending home sales. Friday March personal income and spending, PCE inflation, April Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, U. of Michigan final April consumer sentiment.

This week: The 10 year note yield increased 5 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week down 12 bps in price. The DJIA -77, NASDAQ -51, S&P -4. Crude oil fell $4.85% on concerns of slowing demand. Gold fell $27.00 with the dollar fractionally better, The dollar index +0.18 at 101.75. Bitcoin, after a strong day a week ago dropped 3,002 points this week.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 3.57% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.67% +4 bp

2 year note: 4.19% +5 bp

30 year bond: 3.77% +2 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 5.010%; 3 month 5.273%; 6 month 5.473%; 1 year 5.461% (4/20/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.64 -9 bp (-15 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.42 -12 bp (-22 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.56 -6 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8936 +$0.205

Dollar/Yen: 134.12 -0.12 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0984 +$0.0014

Dollar Index: 101.75 -0.09

Gold: $1992.80 -$26.30

Bitcoin: 27,358 -838

Crude Oil: $77.79 +$0.42

DJIA: 33,808.96 +22.34

NASDAQ: 12,072.46 +12.90

S&P 500: 4133.52 +3.73

 

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	1,900.63	-10.56	-0.55%	+13.80%	-3.68%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	62,409.21	-347.67	-0.55%	+11.40%	+2.47%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,342.22	-15.59	-0.66%	+13.97%	-2.67%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0986	0.0016	+0.15%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	134.1600	-0.0800	-0.06%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2432	-0.0011	-0.09%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6692	-0.0051	-0.76%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3537	0.0060	+0.45%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8923	0.0000	0.00%	4:59 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	21.3985	-0.0267	-0.12%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.4230	-0.0380	-0.14%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.1978	0.0069	+0.16%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	342.2000	-0.6600	-0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	81.5679	0.0283	+0.03%	2:13 PM

 

USD-MXN

17.9883

-0.0126

-0.07%

4:59

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.66% -0.01%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.66% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.20% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.82% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.25% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 4/21 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.04% -0.01%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.39% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.76% +0.22 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/20   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.13 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% +0.11 0.65 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.28% +0.02 0.51 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 4/19

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.09 -0.09   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.09 -0.09 UMBS 5.5 100.55 -0.02 GNMA 5.0 99.39 -0.11 GNMA 5.5 100.59 -0.03 Pricing as of: 4/21 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5756 +0.0396   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.186 +0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.667 +0.037 7 YR Treasury 3.622 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 3.576 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 3.779 +0.035 Pricing as of: 4/21 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.989	-3.894	-3.724	7.625	-4.686	-4.591	-4.421
7.500	-3.771	-3.676	-3.506	7.500	-4.438	-4.343	-4.173
7.375	-3.408	-3.313	-3.143	7.375	-4.064	-3.969	-3.799
7.250	-3.095	-3.000	-2.830	7.250	-3.777	-3.682	-3.512
7.125	-3.032	-2.937	-2.767	7.125	-3.695	-3.600	-3.430
6.999	-2.944	-2.849	-2.679	6.999	-3.564	-3.469	-3.299
6.875	-2.523	-2.428	-2.258	6.875	-3.145	-3.050	-2.880
6.750	-2.330	-2.235	-2.065	6.750	-3.027	-2.932	-2.762
6.625	-2.294	-2.199	-2.029	6.625	-2.931	-2.836	-2.666
6.500	-2.180	-2.085	-1.915	6.500	-2.899	-2.804	-2.634
6.375	-1.675	-1.580	-1.410	6.375	-2.459	-2.364	-2.194
6.250	-1.429	-1.334	-1.164	6.250	-2.320	-2.225	-2.055
6.125	-1.387	-1.292	-1.122	6.125	-1.983	-1.888	-1.718
5.999	-1.271	-1.176	-1.006	5.999	-1.792	-1.697	-1.527
5.875	-0.626	-0.531	-0.361	5.875	-1.459	-1.364	-1.194
5.750	-0.129	-0.034	0.136	5.750	-0.995	-0.900	-0.730
5.625	-0.020	0.075	0.245	5.625	-0.491	-0.396	-0.226
5.500	0.398	0.493	0.663	5.500	-0.103	-0.008	0.162
5.375	1.087	1.182	1.352	5.375	0.449	0.544	0.714
5.250	1.800	1.895	2.065	5.250	0.934	1.029	1.199
5.125	1.989	2.084	2.254	5.125	1.268	1.363	1.533
5.000	2.613	2.708	2.878	5.000	1.878	1.973	2.143

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.055	-2.960	-2.790	7.000	-2.931	-2.836	-2.666
6.875	-3.007	-2.912	-2.742	6.875	-2.886	-2.791	-2.621
6.750	-2.860	-2.765	-2.595	6.750	-2.742	-2.647	-2.477
6.625	-2.779	-2.684	-2.514	6.625	-2.660	-2.565	-2.395
6.500	-2.522	-2.427	-2.257	6.500	-2.398	-2.303	-2.133
6.375	-2.474	-2.379	-2.209	6.375	-2.353	-2.258	-2.088
6.250	-2.252	-2.157	-1.987	6.250	-2.133	-2.038	-1.868
6.125	-1.822	-1.727	-1.557	6.125	-1.704	-1.609	-1.439
6.000	-1.791	-1.696	-1.526	6.000	-1.666	-1.571	-1.401
5.875	-1.684	-1.589	-1.419	5.875	-1.562	-1.467	-1.297
5.750	-1.365	-1.270	-1.100	5.750	-1.246	-1.151	-0.981
5.625	-1.214	-1.119	-0.949	5.625	-1.095	-1.000	-0.830
5.500	-0.975	-0.880	-0.710	5.500	-0.911	-0.816	-0.646
5.375	-0.847	-0.752	-0.582	5.375	-0.788	-0.693	-0.523
5.250	-0.410	-0.315	-0.145	5.250	-0.353	-0.258	-0.088
5.125	-0.330	-0.235	-0.065	5.125	-0.274	-0.179	-0.009
5.000	0.074	0.169	0.339	5.000	0.084	0.179	0.349
4.875	0.444	0.539	0.709	4.875	0.447	0.542	0.712
4.750	0.910	1.005	1.175	4.750	0.910	1.005	1.175
4.625	1.350	1.445	1.615	4.625	1.310	1.405	1.575
4.500	1.543	1.638	1.808	4.500	1.532	1.627	1.797
4.375	1.903	1.998	2.168	4.375	1.845	1.940	2.110