MAGAZYN KIESZEŃ (444) 03.18.2023

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Market Wrap-up

MBS OVERVIEW

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 April Coupon is up +10 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

Rosie the Riveter: February Industrial Production was weaker than estimates, flat at 0.0% vs. est. of 0.2% but January was revised higher from 0.0% to 0.3%. Capacity Utilization was 78.0% vs. est. of 78.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The March Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey moved lower from 67.0 down to 63.4 which was well below expectations of 67. 85% of the survey interviews were conducted prior to the recent banking crisis.

LEI: The Conference Board’s March Leading Economic Indicators were -0.3% vs. est. of -0.2% and is down -3.6% over the past 6 months which portends a major economic slowdown and or recession.

Central Bank Palooza: The Peoples Bank of China surprised by announcing an unexpected cut to the amount that banks set aside for deposits by 25 basis points which is expected to inject 500 billion Yuan ($72.6 billion) worth of liquidity into the market.

The Running Man: SVB Bank official filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. On the flip side, First Republic Bank received unprecedented support as several Big Banks (Chase, Goldman, Wells, PNC, Citi, etc.) announced that they would deposit $30B in deposits into the bank but shares still fell over 20%. Credit Suisse resumed their free-fall after several banks curbed trading with them and the deposit run continued.

Yesterday and over the last few days the 10 year held 3.40%, it increased to close at 3.57%, today it tried once again, falling to 3.40% at 3 PM ET (see below for 4 pm level). The bank issues still boiling, although no new banks in the headlines. First Republic rattling regional banks. A report on major banks putting restrictions on trading with Credit Suisse adding to the wild week.

The wobbly consensus now is 25 bp increase from the FOMC next week. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed insider said during a CNBC appearance that the decision will hinge on financial stability and performance of capital markets over the next few days. The fed funds futures market, meanwhile, still sees a 65.7% implied likelihood of a 25-bps increase.

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday Feb existing home sales, FOMC begins. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, FOMC po0licy statement and Powell’s press conference. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Feb new home sales. Friday Feb durable goods orders, March Markit PMI manufacturing index and its Services index.

This Week: Attention to the changes, this week has been very volatile in many markets. The 10 year note yield down 28 bps, the 2 year note down 76 b ps. For all the interday swings, the stock indexes ended the week generally unchanged, the DJIA -48, NASDAQ +392, S&P +55. The dollar index declined 0.78 a big move. Crude oil -$10.24, Gold increased $111.00.

Today, a good day to buy insurance for the weekend, buying treasuries. Last weekend the banking problems began over the weekend. The trade, if no new issues occur, won’t cost much if at all, compared to what occurred last Monday..

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 3.41% –17 bp

5 year note: 3.49% -24 bp

2 year note: 3.82% -36 bp

30 year bond: 3.61% -10 bp

Libor Rates: 1 month 4.761%; 3 month 4.963%; 6 month 4.932%; 1 year 4.829% (3/16/23)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.81 +33 bps (+10 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.84 +38 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 101.08 +16 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.8871 -$0.0111

Dollar/Yen: 131.84 -1.91 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0669 +$0.0059

Dollar Index: 103.81 -0.61

Gold: $1983.10 +59.70

Bitcoin: 26,830 +2129

Crude Oil: $66.15 -$2.20

DJIA: 31,861.98 -384.57

NASDAQ: 11,530.51 -86.76

S&P 500: 3916.64 -43.64

SOFR Data 03/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.55973, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.44585, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.93895, INDEX: 1.06979143

 

Poland

NAME VALUE NET CHANGE % CHANGE 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EDT)
WIG20:IND

WIG 20

 

1,678.16 -28.39 -1.66% -9.26% -20.06% 12:15 PM
WIG:IND

WSE WIG INDEX

 

WALUTY 

56,283.05 -622.01 -1.09% -6.57% -11.59% 12:15 PM
CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE NET CHANGE TIME (EDT)
EUR-USD

 

1.0670 0.0060 +0.57% 4:59 PM
USD-JPY

 

131.8500 -1.8900 -1.41% 4:59 PM
GBP-USD

 

1.2173 0.0064 +0.53% 4:59 PM
AUD-USD

 

0.6697 0.0041 +0.62% 4:59 PM
USD-CAD

 

1.3731 0.0010 +0.07% 4:59 PM
USD-CHF

 

0.9261 -0.0032 -0.34% 4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK

 

22.4846 -0.1118 -0.49% 4:59 PM
USD-SKK

 

28.2340 -0.1586 -0.56% 4:59 PM
USD-PLN

 

4.4105 -0.0172 -0.39% 4:59 PM
USD-HUF

 

372.8700 1.1000 +0.30% 4:59 PM
USD-RUB

 

77.0121 -0.5363 -0.69% 4:35 PM
USD-MXN

 

18.9099 0.1862 +0.99% 4:59 PM

 

 

372.8700 1.1000 +0.30% 4:59 PM
  77.0121 -0.5363 -0.69% 4:35 PM

 

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE  21-30 YEAR    ELITE  16-20 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.625 -3.829 -3.734 -3.564 7.625 -4.530 -4.435 -4.265
7.500 -3.615 -3.520 -3.350 7.500 -4.293 -4.198 -4.028
7.375 -3.261 -3.166 -2.996 7.375 -3.957 -3.862 -3.692
7.250 -3.224 -3.129 -2.959 7.250 -3.905 -3.810 -3.640
7.125 -3.186 -3.091 -2.921 7.125 -3.867 -3.772 -3.602
6.999 -3.114 -3.019 -2.849 6.999 -3.754 -3.659 -3.489
6.875 -2.785 -2.690 -2.520 6.875 -3.451 -3.356 -3.186
6.750 -2.719 -2.624 -2.454 6.750 -3.419 -3.324 -3.154
6.625 -2.573 -2.478 -2.308 6.625 -3.295 -3.200 -3.030
6.500 -2.493 -2.398 -2.228 6.500 -3.247 -3.152 -2.982
6.375 -2.023 -1.928 -1.758 6.375 -2.848 -2.753 -2.583
6.250 -1.899 -1.804 -1.634 6.250 -2.790 -2.695 -2.525
6.125 -1.809 -1.714 -1.544 6.125 -2.473 -2.378 -2.208
5.999 -1.747 -1.652 -1.482 5.999 -2.311 -2.216 -2.046
5.875 -1.140 -1.045 -0.875 5.875 -1.731 -1.636 -1.466
5.750 -0.582 -0.487 -0.317 5.750 -1.397 -1.302 -1.132
5.625 -0.439 -0.344 -0.174 5.625 -0.812 -0.717 -0.547
5.500 -0.316 -0.221 -0.051 5.500 -0.706 -0.611 -0.441
5.375 0.377 0.472 0.642 5.375 -0.155 -0.060 0.110
5.250 1.100 1.195 1.365 5.250 0.320 0.415 0.585
5.125 1.231 1.326 1.496 5.125 0.656 0.751 0.921
5.000 1.818 1.913 2.083 5.000 1.196 1.291 1.461

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR    ELITE  8-10 YEAR   
RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY
7.000 -3.317 -3.222 -3.052 7.000 -3.191 -3.096 -2.926
6.875 -3.097 -3.002 -2.832 6.875 -2.975 -2.880 -2.710
6.750 -2.997 -2.902 -2.732 6.750 -2.878 -2.783 -2.613
6.625 -2.953 -2.858 -2.688 6.625 -2.834 -2.739 -2.569
6.500 -2.674 -2.579 -2.409 6.500 -2.547 -2.452 -2.282
6.375 -2.615 -2.520 -2.350 6.375 -2.493 -2.398 -2.228
6.250 -2.535 -2.440 -2.270 6.250 -2.416 -2.321 -2.151
6.125 -2.307 -2.212 -2.042 6.125 -2.189 -2.094 -1.924
6.000 -2.272 -2.177 -2.007 6.000 -2.145 -2.050 -1.880
5.875 -2.234 -2.139 -1.969 5.875 -2.112 -2.017 -1.847
5.750 -1.932 -1.837 -1.667 5.750 -1.813 -1.718 -1.548
5.625 -1.779 -1.684 -1.514 5.625 -1.690 -1.595 -1.425
5.500 -1.557 -1.462 -1.292 5.500 -1.483 -1.388 -1.218
5.375 -1.442 -1.347 -1.177 5.375 -1.382 -1.287 -1.117
5.250 -1.013 -0.918 -0.748 5.250 -0.957 -0.862 -0.692
5.125 -0.633 -0.538 -0.368 5.125 -0.597 -0.502 -0.332
5.000 -0.583 -0.488 -0.318 5.000 -0.523 -0.428 -0.258
4.875 -0.390 -0.295 -0.125 4.875 -0.386 -0.291 -0.121
4.750 0.059 0.154 0.324 4.750 0.059 0.154 0.324
4.625 0.558 0.653 0.823 4.625 0.558 0.653 0.823
4.500 0.913 1.008 1.178 4.500 0.862 0.957 1.127
1.306 1.401 1.571 4.375 1.248 1.343 1.513

 

 

Mortgage Rates
30 Yr. Fixed Rate
6.55% -0.14%

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% -0.14 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.12 0.00
30 Yr. FHA 6.15% -0.05 0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.12% -0.08 0.00
5/1 ARM 6.35% +0.23 0.00
30 Yr. VA 6.19% -0.06 0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 3/17
15 Yr. Fixed Rate
5.98% -0.12%

 

Rate Change Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.13 0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 5.90% -0.05 0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/16

 

Rate Change Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed 6.71% -0.08 0.79
15 Yr. Fixed 6.14% -0.11 0.77
30 Yr. Jumbo 6.39% -0.10 0.61
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 3/15
MBS / Treasuries
UMBS 30YR 5.0
99.77 +0.55

 

Price / Yield Change
MBS
UMBS 5.0 99.77 +0.55
UMBS 5.5 100.92 +0.48
GNMA 5.0 100.28 +0.58
GNMA 5.5 101.16 +0.23
Pricing as of: 3/17 5:31PM EST
10 Year US Treasury
3.4360 -0.1429

 

Price / Yield Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury 3.848 -0.326
5 YR Treasury 3.504 -0.230
7 YR Treasury 3.502 -0.189
10 YR Treasury 3.436 -0.143
30 YR Treasury 3.632 -0.080
Pricing as of: 3/17 5:31PM EST