Magazyn Kieszeń (435) 14 Styczeń 2023

Co się działo wczoraj

Interest rates increased a little today ahead of the holiday on Monday, nothing substantive just traders easing back before the holiday.

The big banks reported earnings today, the four largest commercial banks reported mixed fourth quarter, but were considered better than expectations. The banks becoming more convinced the US will fall into recession this year, expecting a minor decline that won’t last long and driven by the Fed’s rate increases. BofA’s Moynihan says a mild recession in mid 2023; the CEO’s statement mirrors the earnings report for JPMorgan Chase, whose economic outlook calls for “a mild recession in the central case.”

Recent data reveals consumers are increasing the use of credit cards, COVID windfalls used up?

The US debt ceiling will be met next Thursday, no worries; Janet Yellen saying with maneuvering she can hang on until June. Republicans refusing to go along with Democrat’s $1.4 trillion package wanting spending cuts. Not news, the debt ceiling default it’s an annual event of passage, but at the end of the day it gets done by increasing the ceiling.

Next Week’s calendar has several key releases. Tuesday Jan Empire State manufacturing index. Wednesday Dec PPI, Dec retail sales, Dec industrial production and factory use, Nov business inventories, Jan NHAB housing market index, Fed Beige Book. Thursday weekly claims, Dec housing starts and permits, Jan Philadelphia Fed business index. Friday Dec existing home sales, Dec consumer confidence index.

This Week: The 10 yr. note this week -5 bps, the 2 yr. note -6 bps. MBS prices up 1 bp. The DJIA increased 662, NASDAQ +510, S&P +104. Bitcoin had the best week in 18 months increasing 3,482; gold increased $50.00 on continuing dollar weakness, the dollar index fell 1.71, a strong move. Crude oil increased $6.28.

Started today floating but locked when the 10 yr. note increased, MBS prices down 33 bps on the day and -22 bps from 9:30 am.

CENY @ 4:00 PM 01.13.2023

10 yr. note: 3.50% +7 bp

5 yr. note: 3.60% +6 bp

2 Yr. note: 4.21% +8 bp

30 yr. bond: 3.61% +5 bp

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 4.459%; 3 mo. 4.829%; 6 mo. 5.130%; 1 yr. 5.409% (1/12/23)

30 yr. FNMA 6.0: 102.20 -22 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)

30 yr. FNMA 5.5: 101.33 -34 bp (-23 bp from 9:30)

30 yr. GNMA 5.5: 101.33 -8 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $6.7030 -$0.0357

Dollar/Yen: 127.86 -1.44 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0832 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 102.17 -0.07

Gold: $1923.10 +$24.30

Bitcoin: 19,418 +596

Crude Oil: $79.93 +$1.54

DJIA: 34,302.61 +112.64

NASDAQ: 11,079.16 +78.05

S&P 500: 3999.09 +15.92

SOFR Data 01/13: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.29544, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.81858, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.11206, INDEX: 1.06145226

Poland

NAME	VALUE	NET CHANGE	% CHANGE	1 MONTH	1 YEAR	TIME (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	1,923.44	-7.35	-0.38%	+10.46%	-19.29%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	61,565.83	-185.67	-0.30%	+9.88%	-15.16%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	2,363.06	-7.75	-0.33%	+11.16%	-18.66%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

CURRENCY	VALUE	CHANGE	NET CHANGE	TIME (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0830	-0.0023	-0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	127.8700	-1.3800	-1.07%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2227	0.0017	+0.14%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6968	-0.0001	-0.01%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3396	0.0029	+0.22%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.9269	-0.0007	-0.08%	4:59 PM

USD-CZK	22.1486	0.0006	+0.00%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.8165	0.0593	+0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.3340	0.0088	+0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	366.1300	0.1300	+0.04%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	68.9938	0.8209	+1.20%	4:04 PM

USD-MXN

18.7663

-0.0737

-0.39%

4:59 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.09% +0.02%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	6.09%	+0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.27%	+0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.65%	0.00	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	5.70%	+0.02	0.00
5/1 ARM	6.03%	0.00	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.72%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/13

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

5.27% +0.02%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.33%	-0.15	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.52%	-0.21	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/12

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.42%	-0.16	0.73
15 Yr. Fixed	5.94%	-0.12	0.62
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.09%	-0.03	0.66
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/11

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.0

100.27 -0.33

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.0	100.27	-0.33
UMBS 5.5	101.41	-0.30
GNMA 5.0	100.52	-0.16
GNMA 5.5	101.31	-0.14
Pricing as of: 1/13 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

3.5072 +0.0632

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	4.236	+0.091
5 YR Treasury	3.614	+0.077
7 YR Treasury	3.563	+0.073
10 YR Treasury	3.507	+0.063
30 YR Treasury	3.612	+0.038
Pricing as of: 1/13 5:31PM EST

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR

ELITE 16-20 YEAR

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

RATE

15 DAY

30 DAY

45 DAY

7.625

-3.953

-3.858

-3.688

7.625

-4.697

-4.602

-4.432

7.500

-3.788

-3.693

-3.523

7.500

-4.511

-4.416

-4.246

7.375

-3.736

-3.641

-3.471

7.375

-4.459

-4.364

-4.194

7.250

-3.667

-3.572

-3.402

7.250

-4.357

-4.262

-4.092

7.125

-3.501

-3.406

-3.236

7.125

-4.225

-4.130

-3.960

6.999

-3.378

-3.283

-3.113

6.999

-4.124

-4.029

-3.859

6.875

-3.177

-3.082

-2.912

6.875

-4.043

-3.948

-3.778

6.750

-3.115

-3.020

-2.850

6.750

-3.923

-3.828

-3.658

6.625

-2.899

-2.804

-2.634

6.625

-3.704

-3.609

-3.439

6.500

-2.806

-2.711

-2.541

6.500

-3.609

-3.514

-3.344

6.375

-2.493

-2.398

-2.228

6.375

-3.485

-3.390

-3.220

6.250

-2.416

-2.321

-2.151

6.250

-3.345

-3.250

-3.080

6.125

-2.160

-2.065

-1.895

6.125

-2.933

-2.838

-2.668

5.999

-2.047

-1.952

-1.782

5.999

-2.704

-2.609

-2.439

5.875

-1.710

-1.615

-1.445

5.875

-2.331

-2.236

-2.066

5.750

-1.296

-1.201

-1.031

5.750

-2.044

-1.949

-1.779

5.625

-1.124

-1.029

-0.859

5.625

-1.429

-1.334

-1.164

5.500

-0.885

-0.790

-0.620

5.500

-1.197

-1.102

-0.932

5.375

-0.256

-0.161

0.009

5.375

-0.691

-0.596

-0.426

5.250

0.428

0.523

0.693

5.250

-0.218

-0.123

0.047

5.125

0.782

0.877

1.047

5.125

0.288

0.383

0.553

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.986	-3.891	-3.721	6.500	-3.879	-3.784	-3.614
6.375	-3.752	-3.657	-3.487	6.375	-3.651	-3.556	-3.386
6.250	-3.427	-3.332	-3.162	6.250	-3.340	-3.245	-3.075
6.125	-3.202	-3.107	-2.937	6.125	-3.118	-3.023	-2.853
6.000	-3.025	-2.930	-2.760	6.000	-2.918	-2.823	-2.653
5.875	-2.916	-2.821	-2.651	5.875	-2.816	-2.721	-2.551
5.750	-2.566	-2.471	-2.301	5.750	-2.531	-2.436	-2.266
5.625	-2.508	-2.413	-2.243	5.625	-2.465	-2.370	-2.200
5.500	-2.314	-2.219	-2.049	5.500	-2.234	-2.139	-1.969
5.375	-2.250	-2.155	-1.985	5.375	-2.165	-2.070	-1.900
5.250	-2.043	-1.948	-1.778	5.250	-2.022	-1.927	-1.757
5.125	-1.604	-1.509	-1.339	5.125	-1.686	-1.591	-1.421
5.000	-1.494	-1.399	-1.229	5.000	-1.569	-1.474	-1.304
4.875	-1.182	-1.087	-0.917	4.875	-1.306	-1.211	-1.041
4.750	-0.774	-0.679	-0.509	4.750	-0.912	-0.817	-0.647
4.625	-0.291	-0.196	-0.026	4.625	-0.450	-0.355	-0.185
4.500	0.213	0.308	0.478	4.500	0.077	0.172	0.342
4.375	0.601	0.696	0.866	4.375	0.413	0.508	0.678
4.250	1.056	1.151	1.321	4.250	0.855	0.950	1.120
4.125	1.553	1.648	1.818	4.125	1.351	1.446	1.616
4.000	2.057	2.152	2.322	4.000	1.839	1.934	2.104
3.875	2.515	2.610	2.780	3.875	2.260	2.355	2.525